tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Delta i am in wayne county. Were you from Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Walworth. Bit of a maximum here in western wayne county usually. From penfield webster down to walworth macedon. Eastern monroe western wayne county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 KBUFs Latest Map. Possible 20" lollies SE of Ontario, looks like great first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Low res globals don't do the best with LES, but let's see what model does the best with this event. GFS: GEM: NAM NAM 4KM RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Where is the best place to get the WRF-ARW/NMM model output? It takes forever to update the new runs on tidbits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I've always loved the hills around eastern Penfield for their synoptic LES totals. Near the Christmas tree farms. I've seen big surprise totals outta that micro cosm. Lake shore looks weakest- which is where I'm from. 2 blocks off lake in West Irondequoit. Best area for tea kettle and lake induced fronts converging on shore. Both, however, do best with light NE winds- different story. For those of you chasing in Wayne county, there is a mall town called Hanibal, they receive tremendous amounts- in my travels across 104. Waaaay more than Sodus or Oswego. Same band Fulton gets I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Hanibal is cayuga county i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I think the Burlington NWS has access to some good high Rez LES maps. Ewall has access to ARW-NMM. A bit tricky to find- but they are there. WRF is tough to access. The GEM has weird maximums in twin tiers?!? Synoptic? This set up is confusing me. Which is ridiculously easy to do these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Burlington hi rez puttin out 1.25 to 2 inches south shore qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Quite a few high res models have that Lake Huron connection setting up over Orleans. Where ever that connection sets up could lead to some big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Burlington hi rez puttin out 1.25 to 2 inches south shore qpf That model also has almost 3" of QPF in Steuben county in central/southern NY, its a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Euro shows nearly perfect set-up for long duration NW flow event. Decent Deltas, great moisture, and well aligned flow. Shouldn't be to much shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Whats it show for snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Nws in buffalo is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 Can already see the lake effect forming off Erie as the front goes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Hannibal is Oswego county. And where i live. Can't wait to see what the amounts are around here. So winter for a good blast of white gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, Revracer800 said: Hannibal is Oswego county. And where i live. Can't wait to see what the amounts are around here. So winter for a good blast of white gold. Welcome back Rev, you got the snowmobiles tuned up ready to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Thank you, ohhhh yeah snowmobile is ready to rock. After last winter I'm super pumped for this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 minute ago, Revracer800 said: Thank you, ohhhh yeah snowmobile is ready to rock. After last winter I'm super pumped for this year. Awesome! We need to get you a gopro and take some awesome vids of riding through the Tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Awesome! We need to get you a gopro and take some awesome vids of riding through the Tug. I actually had a GoPro but sold sold it cause i didn't use it much. I'll get some pics from the Tug this year and post them on here. I can't wait to ride the Tug, it's my favorite place to ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Anyone know euro outputs for recent run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 KBUF discussion is pretty tame for all the talk on this board. Think they're being conservative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 They always are until a foot falls then upgrade as event ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 KBUF going real conservative for south shore. I'm in agreement. Hope they are wrong! LOL. Busting low is never a problem for me. I'd take it every time. When do you think it starts up in earnest? I'm thinking Sunday evening time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Bet they upgrade tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 If only it was cold enough for snow right now. Pretty good SW band going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 I'm not sure how this is tame. Warnings/Advs for nearly the entire state when NW flow events are extremely fickle in who gets snow and who doesn't. This is almost pure lake effect. There will be many losers and winners in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Nws says cant buy nam totals for roc cause of 310 flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 But other aspects are off charts for a good event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 They cut totals quite a bit in latest forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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