BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 3 hours ago, ayuud11 said: 18z BTV 4km WRF goes bonkers with that Ontario band, congrats Batavia! You know winter is back when Ayuud is posting the Burlington WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I pretty much agree with LEK totals overall. Places like Redfield will do really well in the Tug with the current setup. I think a few spots over 20" are all but certain given history with this type of setup. Wish I could go chasing!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Hi res models really hammer orleans county east to onadoga county including roc. Totals nearing a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2016 Author Share Posted November 19, 2016 22 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hi res models really hammer orleans county east to onadoga county including roc. Totals nearing a foot. Yeah looks good across Orleans, Delta may do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Nws metioning thunder off both lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Cant believe no watches up for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Roc won't see big stuff until Sunday night. 4 periods away. Give it time. NWS will hoist flags for Monroe at very least. Prob Orleans and Ontario. Heck, maybe Niagara and Gennessee too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Yeah looks like eastern parts of niagra do very well as most of genesse on east and south. Even livingston. I remember a situation like this several years ago. It was on december though. Most of rochester counties got 6 to 12 moist nw flow and strong winds. This looks to be similiar maybe a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Instability will be extreme. Delta t of 20 or higher. 40 degrees diffrence surface to 5000 feet. Plus very moist nw upslope componet. This is may be a case study as the preameters are rare for south shore in regards to lake air differential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Euro pretty consistent, but bumps totals up towards the Tug/Watertown/St. Lawrence County. Local totals to 18-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Yea , euro very consistent for this area, kfzy 13", ksyr 12", Kroc 10".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 4K nam ,with plenty more to go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: 4K nam ,with plenty more to go.. That map looks great for locations, and as you say....more to come after....but I'm thinking the totals overall, will be much higher for the higher elevations....ratios will be higher, and the upslope forcing will significantly add to the totals for this event...Chautauqua Co. will have jackpot totals over 2'...Tug Hill Area, near 3'....Hills S, SE, and SW of SYR, near 2'...Fulton, 20"...SYR, 18"....ROC 12"....BUF....3"(Unless the Huron band visits for a bit...)....The writing is on the wall....this will over-produce for many vs. model consensus....Happy kick-off to winter '16-17'!!!!! If I have time....maybe a map later..... One more note....the wind will be ferocious for a time Sun. into Sun. night along the S/SE/E. Shore of Ontario....Blizzard criteria will certainly be met for some!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 ....and another thing to note...:) The EQ levels will be nearing 12K....and snow growth zone may well grow to 5K or so thick!.....or nearly double what we typically get in decent LES setups.... Look for 3-4"/hr. rates off Ontario Sun. night....even with multiple bands....but there will, of course be a primary band of convergence meandering about S. Oswego/N. Onondaga Cos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Think entire south shore needs a upgrade to blizzard watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 It's a very warm 51 F here in Toronto at the moment. Looks like the cold front should be moving through soon. Given I live in the northern suburbs I'm hoping to maybe get 1-2" of snow tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 12Z Nam hammers CNY. I agree with blizzard conditions at times with gusts over 40 mph. This is gonna be an awesome storm. Gravestone, your kids will enjoy Monday off! Lots of cancellations come Monday morning. Glad LEK is back too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Any one else thinks nws is being coservative for rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Rochester will upgrade to warning. Does anyone know Syracuse's all-time November Snowfall record for one storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Anyone with euro wanna share info when it comes out. It was showing a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I found 20.1" for Syracuse as top snowfall in a day. Not gonna beat that record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 12z Canadian models showing some love for the N.Frontier area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Not the best model for lake snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I'm really interested to see how Huron / G Bay can come into play for some action in WNY. The hi res is showing a possible band. What if we had a little surprise like this... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 I missed your enthusiasm Tim! Should be great fun. Wild ride with winds and bands. Ill be looking at this as a case study for south shore. The parameters are exceptional (thanks king), it's just the short fetch and high winds to overcome. As always, the models are close to useless anywhere from Niagara Falls to Sodus. They do much, much better off Erie and off East end of Ontario. What im watching: location of low just north of Vermont. Does it retrograde? Does it track a bit further south and west? How much precip is getting wrapped up and thrown back? So, I'm still not bullish on Roc total snowfall. A few things argue for WSW flag over advisory: first big event, the winds, the higher qpf pumped by a minority of models (uncertainty on upside), and proximity to other warnings-. Good luck all. I'll be posting pics and videos from Irondequoit, NY. Big love for all snow gods! Bring it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Thanks dave. I usualy would say this is a 4 to 8 if it was dead of winter. But this looks to be a unusual case. Gfs is terrible for lake snow . Bun nam usuall does well. Its got a much higher resolotion. This has ample moisture very warm lake upslope frictional componet and high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Also a uplake connections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 3 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: ....and another thing to note...:) The EQ levels will be nearing 12K....and snow growth zone may well grow to 5K or so thick!.....or nearly double what we typically get in decent LES setups.... Look for 3-4"/hr. rates off Ontario Sun. night....even with multiple bands....but there will, of course be a primary band of convergence meandering about S. Oswego/N. Onondaga Cos. One of the concerns I've had was although your DGZ is very very deep, the entire top have of the DGZ has subsidence. I like widespread heavy snowfall as it's a very good combination of background synoptic moisture and lake enhancement. The overall setup is very good, and I would agree that the Tug Hill may see 2-3 feet. I'd love to be in that convergence band. That being said, I do think this will be more significant than I originally anticipated yesterday. BUF actually dropped their totals down this morning to 8-12", at the same time models came in more aggressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Apps runner whats your take for roc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Starting to look Winter Storm Warning-ish to me too. Winds could be very strong for a long duration. I'm so wary of getting my hopes up but things really look good for a solid lake response. I'll definitely be chasing into Wayne County tomorrow. I havent been this excited about a storm in a long time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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