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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Fall into Winter!


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Yeah looks like eastern parts of niagra do very well as most of genesse on east and south. Even livingston. I remember a situation like this several years ago. It was on december though. Most of rochester counties got 6 to 12 moist nw flow and strong winds. This looks to be similiar maybe a bit stronger.

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

4K nam ,with plenty more to go..

 

 

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That map looks great for locations, and as you say....more to come after....but I'm thinking the totals overall, will be much higher for the higher elevations....ratios will be higher, and the upslope forcing will significantly add to the totals for this event...Chautauqua Co. will have jackpot totals over 2'...Tug Hill Area, near 3'....Hills S, SE, and SW of SYR, near 2'...Fulton, 20"...SYR, 18"....ROC 12"....BUF....3"(Unless the Huron band visits for a bit...)....The writing is on the wall....this will over-produce for many vs. model consensus....Happy kick-off to winter '16-17'!!!!!  If I have time....maybe a map later.....

 

One more note....the wind will be ferocious for a time Sun. into Sun. night along the S/SE/E. Shore of Ontario....Blizzard criteria will certainly be met for some!!!

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....and another thing to note...:)

The EQ levels will be nearing 12K....and snow growth zone may well grow to 5K or so thick!.....or nearly double what we typically get in decent LES setups....

Look for 3-4"/hr. rates off Ontario Sun. night....even with multiple bands....but there will, of course be a primary band of convergence meandering about S. Oswego/N. Onondaga Cos.

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I missed your enthusiasm Tim! Should be great fun. Wild ride with winds and bands.

Ill be looking at this as a case study for south shore. The parameters are exceptional (thanks king), it's just the short fetch and high winds to overcome.  As always, the models are close to useless anywhere from Niagara Falls to Sodus. They do much, much better off Erie and off East end of Ontario. 

What im watching:  location of low just north of Vermont. Does it retrograde? Does it track a bit further south and west? How much precip is getting wrapped up and thrown back? 

So, I'm still not bullish on Roc total snowfall. A few things argue for WSW flag over advisory: first big event, the winds, the higher qpf pumped by a minority of models (uncertainty on upside), and proximity to other warnings-. 

Good luck all. I'll be posting pics and videos from Irondequoit, NY.

Big love for all snow gods! Bring it!!

 

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3 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said:

....and another thing to note...:)

The EQ levels will be nearing 12K....and snow growth zone may well grow to 5K or so thick!.....or nearly double what we typically get in decent LES setups....

Look for 3-4"/hr. rates off Ontario Sun. night....even with multiple bands....but there will, of course be a primary band of convergence meandering about S. Oswego/N. Onondaga Cos.

One of the concerns I've had was although your DGZ is very very deep, the entire top have of the DGZ has subsidence. 

I like widespread heavy snowfall as it's a very good combination of background synoptic moisture and lake enhancement. The overall setup is very good, and I would agree that the Tug Hill may see 2-3 feet. I'd love to be in that convergence band. 

That being said, I do think this will be more significant than I originally anticipated yesterday. BUF actually dropped their totals down this morning to 8-12", at the same time models came in more aggressive

nam4km_2016111912_042_43.45--76.45.png

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Starting to look Winter Storm Warning-ish to me too.  Winds could be very strong for a long duration.  I'm so wary of getting my hopes up but things really look good for a solid lake response.  I'll definitely be chasing into Wayne County tomorrow.  I havent been this excited about a storm in a long time!

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