BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2016 Share Posted October 10, 2016 It's officially October 10th and about the time we start the countdown to when our forum finally becomes active. November 1st starts lake effect snow season around these parts. The next few weeks look relatively warm. Lake temperatures are at record highs. But this brings us to what possibly could be coming this winter in terms of snow/cold. Latest Values for the La Nina Nino 1.2: +0.6 (-0.2) Nino 3: -0.2 (-0.1) Nino 3.4: -0.8 (-0.4) Nino 4: -0.5 (-0.3) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for So overall this winter we are looking at Neutral Enso conditions leaning towards a possible weak La Nina which is much different than the advertised strong La Nina that usually comes right after a record El Nino. The Euro Monthlies also just came out and are some of the best indications of what is to come in the next few months. 11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: They are really good for dec and Jan. Huge -NAO and -EPO in December. Closer to neutral EPO in January but still good -NAO. February looks like. Positive EPO and negative PNA pattern. NAO stay negative though so maybe still chances. But I've never seen the euro seasonal show such a robust pattern like it does for December. I guess we'll see how it looks next month. The CFS are also on our side as well. The top analog years for this coming year would be: 2008-09: 100.2 1961-62: 101.4 2005-06: 78.2 1983-84: 132.5 1959-60: 115.6 2013-14: 129.9 1978-79: 97.3 Average: 107.9" So while long term forecasting for winter should be taken with a grain of salt, the overall implications favor a more normal winter in terms of cold and snowfall for next season. At any rate, I guarantee we will have a "better" winter than last year and a much earlier start to winter weather in comparison to the last few Decembers. Here are a few winter forecasts that have been published so far. WeatherBell: http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-2017-us-winter-forecast-northeast-above-normal-snow-freeze-hurt-citrus-south/60277878 WeatherChannel: https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-outlook-2016-2017-twc HudsonValley: http://www.hudsonvalleyweather.com/2016-2017-hvw-winter-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 Cold morning. First night I turned the heat on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2016 Author Share Posted October 10, 2016 Possible weak La Nina developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 KBUF NWS did a new writeup for the anniversary of the Oct. surprise storm. I lived really close to the airport for this event and didn't have power for 2 weeks. Definitely one of the craziest events I've witnessed. We lost 5 trees in our yard from this storm and our road was impassable for 5 days. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive2006-2007_a It has the radar and atmospheric pattern loops for the event. Depew 24 inches Alden (Milgrove) 24 inches Cheektowaga (NWS) 22.6 inches Buffalo (North) 20 inches -Downtown 15 inches -South 10 inches Amherst 14 to 22 inches Clarence 16 to 22 inches Tonawanda 12 to 18 inches West Seneca 14 inches No. Tonawanda 6 to 12 inches Hamburg 8 to 14 inches Orchard Park 8 inches Batavia 10 inches Medina 8 inches Lockport 6 to 8 inches Grand Island 2(N) to 10”(S) Albion 5 inches Brockport 3 inches Niagara Falls 1 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 11, 2016 Author Share Posted October 11, 2016 Can't believe it's been 10 years since that storm already. Remember it just like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Who would have thought.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2016 Author Share Posted October 12, 2016 35 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Who would have thought.... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yep. The only Met who got this one right was Andy Parker. I remember watching him the day before and he was the only one calling for heavy snow. Where did you find this gem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2016 Author Share Posted October 12, 2016 Leafs just starting to change around here. From Letchworth State Park on Monday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2016 Author Share Posted October 12, 2016 It looks like Holiday Valley is in full bloom already. They change so much faster than my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Yep. The only Met who got this one right was Andy Parker. I remember watching him the day before and he was the only one calling for heavy snow. Where did you find this gem?http://www.usawx.com/thejourney248.htmNot sure who did this write up but it's awesome. Format jumps around a lot but it has every detail about the storm you could want. It has all the NWS text products from the 11-15. So cool to read them in order as they realized to late how bad things were getting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Nice pictures from Letchworth. Might try and head out next week.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 12, 2016 Share Posted October 12, 2016 Pretty interesting to hear local TV mets talking about October Siberian Snowfall relating to our upcoming winter season. Informing the public of climate patterns rather than standing outside the studio telling people the NOW weather. Are we on to something new here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2016 Author Share Posted October 12, 2016 29 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: http://www.usawx.com/thejourney248.htm Not sure who did this write up but it's awesome. Format jumps around a lot but it has every detail about the storm you could want. It has all the NWS text products from the 11-15. So cool to read them in order as they realized to late how bad things were getting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk This is some awesome stuff, Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 12, 2016 Author Share Posted October 12, 2016 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Pretty interesting to hear local TV mets talking about October Siberian Snowfall relating to our upcoming winter season. Informing the public of climate patterns rather than standing outside the studio telling people the NOW weather. Are we on to something new here? I feel like Siberian Snow cover in October from Judah Cowens theory to be overrated and not very clear on what it means for winters in the Great Lake and Northeast. I feel like if it does have any impact it would be on the indices such as the AO and NAO. I think Ninos and Ninas have a far higher coorelation in predicting long term winter weather patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2016 Author Share Posted October 15, 2016 This has to be the warmest 12 month period in Upstates History. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2016 Author Share Posted October 15, 2016 32 degree temp change today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2016 Author Share Posted October 15, 2016 The next 4 days look like Mid September weather. I think we overachieve and get close to 80 Mon/Tues. The average high for those 4 days is 57/58 degrees. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Monday Cloudy, with a high near 75. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 15, 2016 Author Share Posted October 15, 2016 Can we lock it in? First LES event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 18, 2016 Author Share Posted October 18, 2016 Possible first flakes in Tug Hill region this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 12z GFS is now hinting at possible first flakes for nearly everyone. Nice little wound up storm with a front end prolonged heavy rain threat, followed by some low end winds with a decent lake response. I foresee a lot of graupel in someones future. Latest run was colder but didnt grab as much tropical moisture until further east of us A very nice run for some legit fall weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Potential for a lot of rain this week and fall like temperatures.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 Around an inch of rain has fallen over the past couple days, nearing 4" on the month.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted October 19, 2016 Share Posted October 19, 2016 7 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Random question for folks. Have any of you been to Saratoga battlefield? Is it a nice area? The weather might suck, but I'm thinking of going up there this weekend (Saturday in particular) with the gf and I've been trying to find a nice spot that isn't too far from Albany. Absolutely, really nice area and if you have any interest in American history you will enjoy the battlefield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 19, 2016 Author Share Posted October 19, 2016 Adirondacks and higher tug look to get first accumulation of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 Lots of rain coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 Lake Erie beat the highest temp on the date by 2 degrees on the 19th. 64, old record is 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 20, 2016 Author Share Posted October 20, 2016 Cowens winter forecast Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the United States Dec-Jan-Feb 2016/17 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting colder than normal temperatures for much of the Eastern United States, with warmer than normal temperatures for the Western United States. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, predicted El Niño/Southern Oscillation anomalies, and observed September Arctic sea ice anomalies. October Siberian snow cover has so far this month advanced at an above normal rate. This is an indication of an increased probability of a weakened polar vortex or a sudden stratospheric warming, and a predominantly negative Arctic Oscillation during the winter and cold temperatures - especially east of the Mississippi. This is a preliminary forecast and not the official winter forecast as the model requires full monthly values for snow cover and sea level pressure anomalies. The forecast will be updated next month. Current forecast produced on October 19, 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 23 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Adirondacks and higher tug look to get first accumulation of the season. Still looking good up there for a period of decent snow to go along with high winds. Possible dangerous conditions for anyone hiking the high peaks not aware of what's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Cowens winter forecast Nice to see this, but I'm very skeptical after his less than stellar performance last year. Maybe this will work out better without a very strong Nino this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 20, 2016 Share Posted October 20, 2016 This would bring us close to double digits for the month..So far 0.45" has fallen.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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