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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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I know most here were/are against me since summer for calling a dry winter but Brad Panovich released his winter outlook and agrees with me. However, given the cold/dry he thinks we will see above normal snow/ice with 1-3 bigger storms in the western Carolina's.

I agree with the majority of his forecast except I do NOT believe the norm of having the most snow in late February into March will be true this winter. I am leaning heavily on a more favorable pattern starting late November into some of December for winter weather...over say...January and et cetera. 

I also (not Brad) want to mention we need should keep in mind the dry air...dry ground...I think we could be in store for some really cold snow that features light amounts....mixed events...and ice storms. I think this is often overlooked but the foothills often trap this type of environment and it is hard to bulge...blue ridge east. Mountain tops may escape with slightly warmer inversions at times while the deeper valleys are hit more.

I do believe there will be plenty of thawing this winter too so not straight cold/dry esp. not during the heart of winter we may actually see some mild periods. 

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As expected, many areas of the western counties managed to get some flurries which was nice to see especially with a few parades today. Looking at midrange models, it does appear we have a chance to increase precip sometime in the next couple of weeks, but I don't really see much in the way of snow for a while unfortunately.  Granted, I'm on the pessimistic side of things for this winter so not real surprised at this point.

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6 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

As expected, many areas of the western counties managed to get some flurries which was nice to see especially with a few parades today. Looking at midrange models, it does appear we have a chance to increase precip sometime in the next couple of weeks, but I don't really see much in the way of snow for a while unfortunately.  Granted, I'm on the pessimistic side of things for this winter so not real surprised at this point.

How's the wind where you are?  Gusty at the hotel, but not anything to warrant a high wind warning yet.

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4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

How's the wind where you are?  Gusty at the hotel, but not anything to warrant a high wind warning yet.

for sustained I'd say we're on the lower side of the 25-35 that is being advertised right now. I'd say we've had 2 gusts of 40 mph or so. when my house starts shaking it's around 40. Think it's supposed to increase overnight so we'll see what i's like in the morning.

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2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

for sustained I'd say we're on the lower side of the 25-35 that is being advertised right now. I'd say we've had 2 gusts of 40 mph or so. when my house starts shaking it's around 40. Think it's supposed to increase overnight so we'll see what i's like in the morning.

Good deal.  Thanks!  Heading back to Raleigh tomorrow, unfortunately.  I hope to move up here one day.  It's really a great place.

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