NWNC2015 Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 I know most here were/are against me since summer for calling a dry winter but Brad Panovich released his winter outlook and agrees with me. However, given the cold/dry he thinks we will see above normal snow/ice with 1-3 bigger storms in the western Carolina's. I agree with the majority of his forecast except I do NOT believe the norm of having the most snow in late February into March will be true this winter. I am leaning heavily on a more favorable pattern starting late November into some of December for winter weather...over say...January and et cetera. I also (not Brad) want to mention we need should keep in mind the dry air...dry ground...I think we could be in store for some really cold snow that features light amounts....mixed events...and ice storms. I think this is often overlooked but the foothills often trap this type of environment and it is hard to bulge...blue ridge east. Mountain tops may escape with slightly warmer inversions at times while the deeper valleys are hit more. I do believe there will be plenty of thawing this winter too so not straight cold/dry esp. not during the heart of winter we may actually see some mild periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted November 18, 2016 Share Posted November 18, 2016 I like the look of this for WNC. We need moisture and lots of it so regardless of this is snow or just cold rain I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 High Wind Watch up for Ashe and Watauga counties, tomorrow afternoon though Sunday morning, for gusts up to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: High Wind Watch up for Ashe and Watauga counties, tomorrow afternoon though Sunday morning, for gusts up to 60. Should be fun especially with the fire danger. The NAM for what it's worth is forcasting wind chills Sunday morning to be in the single digits here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 23 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Should be fun especially with the fire danger. The NAM for what it's worth is forcasting wind chills Sunday morning to be in the single digits here. Yeah man, it's gonna be chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 8 hours ago, Hvward said: I like the look of this for WNC. We need moisture and lots of it so regardless of this is snow or just cold rain I will be happy. I don't. If memory serves correct, they were more favorable and deeper than that last year. Overall crap shot maps for sure 100% lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 So our chances of precipitation today even for the northern counties is going down. both with rain and snow. Edit: I would only expect flurries at the absolute max, even to the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said: So our chances of precipitation today even for the northern counties is going down. both with rain and snow. Edit: I would only expect flurries at the absolute max, even to the highest elevations. We're under a high wind warning, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 54 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: We're under a high wind warning, though! True, lol. winds are already picking up quite a bit. and I see raindrops so I'm pretty excited about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 9 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: True, lol. winds are already picking up quite a bit. and I see raindrops so I'm pretty excited about that! Yeah, just ran through some heavy mist coming back from Shatley Springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Yeah we had a decent lititle rain this morning . The wind has really picked up big time. Temps are at 41 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Very windy already in downtown west jeff! The parade is gonna have a difficult time today, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Yeah we had a decent lititle rain this morning . The wind has really picked up big time. Temps are at 41 degrees. You're getting ready to get much colder. I'm already down to 29.6 with wind blown flurries but no rain to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Just now, SnoJoe said: You're getting ready to get much colder. I'm already down to 29.6 with wind blown flurries but no rain to speak of. Nice! Yeah I just looked out and we are down to 36. currently scattered clouds. No flurries. Enjoy Joe. I had some coffee and baileys this morning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 5 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Very windy already in downtown west jeff! The parade is gonna have a difficult time today, I think. Yeah its ripping. You may have to help them lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 22 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah its ripping. You may have to help them lol. Hopefully, we'll see some flakes later. Any chance of that actually happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Hopefully, we'll see some flakes later. Any chance of that actually happening? Slim but possibly especially this evening maybe . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Slim but possibly especially this evening maybe . Cool thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 In Boone for game day and it is a snowing lightly!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Snowflakes in downtown WJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 19, 2016 Share Posted November 19, 2016 Original period of wind projectery off lake michigan changed from what models were showing couple days ago. trajectory now stays ne of us and so does any meaningful snowfall, unfortunately. West virgina looking good and maybe tazewell/bluefield va area getting some lt. accs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 As expected, many areas of the western counties managed to get some flurries which was nice to see especially with a few parades today. Looking at midrange models, it does appear we have a chance to increase precip sometime in the next couple of weeks, but I don't really see much in the way of snow for a while unfortunately. Granted, I'm on the pessimistic side of things for this winter so not real surprised at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 6 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: As expected, many areas of the western counties managed to get some flurries which was nice to see especially with a few parades today. Looking at midrange models, it does appear we have a chance to increase precip sometime in the next couple of weeks, but I don't really see much in the way of snow for a while unfortunately. Granted, I'm on the pessimistic side of things for this winter so not real surprised at this point. How's the wind where you are? Gusty at the hotel, but not anything to warrant a high wind warning yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 4 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: How's the wind where you are? Gusty at the hotel, but not anything to warrant a high wind warning yet. for sustained I'd say we're on the lower side of the 25-35 that is being advertised right now. I'd say we've had 2 gusts of 40 mph or so. when my house starts shaking it's around 40. Think it's supposed to increase overnight so we'll see what i's like in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: for sustained I'd say we're on the lower side of the 25-35 that is being advertised right now. I'd say we've had 2 gusts of 40 mph or so. when my house starts shaking it's around 40. Think it's supposed to increase overnight so we'll see what i's like in the morning. Good deal. Thanks! Heading back to Raleigh tomorrow, unfortunately. I hope to move up here one day. It's really a great place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Just had a gust to 52 mph. That's pretty high for me. With a temp of 25.4, it pretty nasty outside. I took the dogs out to pee just now and they beat me back to the house. That never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Bottomed out at 24 this morning!! Nice Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 3 hours ago, strongwxnc said: Bottomed out at 24 this morning!! Nice Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Nice man! We hit 22 degrees which ok but the wind stayed up so we did not fall like I thought . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 Temp down to 30 already. I think we hit the teens tomorrow morning . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 20, 2016 Share Posted November 20, 2016 46 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Temp down to 30 already. I think we hit the teens tomorrow morning . I did this morning as I got down to 18.6. Highs stayed in the twenties today with a high of 29.2. With the wind chill, the 4F's were in full force (fire, friends, food, football) !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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