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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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Didn't think I'd see this forecast the 2nd week in March this year. A high of 24 on Wed. If it does snow Tues., it'll stick around for a few days.

 

Detailed Forecast

Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 19. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 16 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph.
Saturday
A 50 percent chance of snow, mainly after noon. Increasing clouds, with a high near 28. Northwest wind 8 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 21. North northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 33. North northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 25. North wind 5 to 9 mph becoming southeast after midnight.
Monday
A chance of snow and sleet before 3pm, then a chance of rain between 3pm and 5pm, then a chance of snow and sleet after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
Rain and sleet likely before 10pm, then rain and snow likely between 10pm and midnight, then snow likely after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday
A 50 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 32. Breezy.
Tuesday Night
A 40 percent chance of snow showers before 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16. Blustery.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 24. Blustery.
Wednesday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 16.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 34.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 26.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

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Can't believe with the storm going up the coast on Monday-Monday night that it wouldn't pull colder air into the storm so all of wnc would be on the nw side for a heavy snow event.  Plus with the precip coming in Monday evening / night I would think all snow for the Mtns.

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Here is my final snowfall map for wave #1.  I think that the SW portion of WNC really does well with the localized upslope enhancement.  Buncombe should do alight as well.  Might be a little high in Yancey, Mitchell, Avery, and Watauga but if models are 10-15 miles with overrunning orientation, these locations could easily get a couple of inches.

302ugqw.jpg

 

For wave #2, I have been studying the mid level temps on various models for the past hour and on most every model is only a degree or two from having a frozen column of air.  Point being, the models may not show snow, but -2c at 850mb and -1c at 925mb is not going to melt a huge dendrite.  If we were looking at -3c at 850mb and -2 or-3c at 925mb though, partial melt is almost certain.  The precip looks like it is going to be there, I am excited to watch this unfold and see what the models do with it.

 

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Just stopping by to wish everyone good luck! Haven't been able to look into synoptics of these events. History tells us March systems are tricky and unpredictable. Throw in the micro climates of the Mnts and all bets are off. Point being here is someone will be happy and someone will feel ripped off. I'll check in this evening.

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6 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Just stopping by to wish everyone good luck! Haven't been able to look into synoptics of these events. History tells us March systems are tricky and unpredictable. Throw in the micro climates of the Mnts and all bets are off. Point being here is someone will be happy and someone will feel ripped off. I'll check in this evening.

Positive vibes from Weavervegas Don!  :D  I am hoping for the best. Other than 1 event, a pretty boring winter.

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For wave #2, watch the strength of the CAD.  Recall last year, in a very similar setup, the models trended colder with each run as the wedge dynamics came into focus.  I wouldn't be shocked at all to see that same thing happen here.  Northeast states are cold, dry, and snow covered.  So...watch that wedge strength and depth next day or so.

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16 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

6z gfs looks like it bumped up totals. It has a solid .5 inch plus of qpf for the central and southern mtns. Probably some foot plus totals in the smokies out of this.

I noticed that. Definitely better than 0Z.

 

 

6 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

For wave #2, watch the strength of the CAD.  Recall last year, in a very similar setup, the models trended colder with each run as the wedge dynamics came into focus.  I wouldn't be shocked at all to see that same thing happen here.  Northeast states are cold, dry, and snow covered.  So...watch that wedge strength and depth next day or so.

I hope that's the case. This is definitely the big dog. Don't get me wrong. I will be happy with anything big, but I would like a big boom to end the winter.

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8 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

GSP dropped my warning to an advisory for a dusting. Wishing good luck for the southern mtn folks. Maybe you guys can cash in big. 

I'll take a little flow snow Wed then call it a winter. 

If we had a betting board on here, I would bet by Wednesday you have more snow than all of us, and you will be in double digits. 

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