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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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9 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Yea I never saw anything posted on the Euro or EPS. Must have missed something. I assumed it was crap lol.

Yeah I was surprised nobody posted it. Here's the meteogram for Boone. Similar up your way. OP shows a nice finger of precip tomorrow night but the ENS aren't quite on board. Both have a big dog Tuesday though. Mean of 7 inches through Tue? I'll take that.

 

KTNB_2017031000_eps_snow_240.png

Here's that finger of precip for tomorrow night as well.Similar to the NAM just further north.

getimg.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 

Nope EPS was awesome. Had an avg of 5" for both events combined at KAVL. We are right where you want to be imo with an approaching snowstorm.

 

2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

Yeah I was surprised nobody posted it. Here's the meteogram for Boone. Similar up your way. OP shows a nice finger of precip tomorrow night but the ENS aren't quite on board. Both have a big dog Tuesday though. Mean of 7 inches through Tue? I'll take that.

 

KTNB_2017031000_eps_snow_240.png

Thanks guys for the info! I had no idea it looked that good.

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12Z GFS lining up almost lock step with 12Z RGEM.  Looks like 2-3" for much of Asheville area, with quite a bit less for Boone/Blowing Rock, but maybe 2-4" for SW NC.

 

At this point, NAM is the outlier, so a safe estimate is 1-3" for wNC mountains.

 

 

 

00z Euro and 00z EPS support the NAM's idea of bringing in the overrunning a bit north of what the GFS shows. Also was relatively wet. GFS continues to resolve a snow hole on the Buncombe/Madison line that 7/10 times doesn't come to fruition. 00z Euro has that same location receiving 5"-6". Not sure we can completely toss the NAM at this point in time.

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Just now, Tyler Penland said:

If the Euro doesn't hold I'll join you on your cliff dive. Ready to deal with summer, rack em up and try again next year.

Plenty of room down here lol. But it's just one run, but it is one that would make sense to happen which is what concerns me. I want to see if Euro holds course to the 0z, but if it mirrors the GFS...yikes.

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2 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:

Not gonna lie, I'm pretty excited about the Tuesday system. Won't take much for it to trend into a big dog especially for the NW Mtn's and points NE


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The only thing is the same thing that helps it become a big dog is the same thing that could help it become a big rain dog. It's a fine line, but very possible.

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Just now, HKY1894 said:

QPF for the Monday event is huge on the euro. Not sure if it's rain or snow though. But 1"+ for Northern mountains maybe slightly less farther south

Yep, this is precip falling into a very cold wedge (850 T's below zero across the favored wedge areas).  This puts Asheville at 11" by Monday evening, 4" falling by Sunday.  Wow.

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Just now, HurricaneTracker said:

Yep, this is precip falling into a very cold wedge (850 T's below zero across the favored wedge areas).  This puts Asheville at 11" by Monday evening, 4" falling by Sunday.  Wow.

Very very dynamic system depicted at 500mb. Just a classic. 

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Just now, HKY1894 said:

Very very dynamic system depicted at 500mb. Just a classic. 

And we are only 96 hours from it going.  Or, this is basically a continuation of the Sunday event as it goes offshore and then deepens quickly.  This needs to be watched carefully as the GFS is starting to hint at this too.  12"+ for almost all mountain areas by Monday evening...significant tree damage and power outages a growing concern.

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Just now, franklin NCwx said:

What does the euro have for the two events for the southern mtns? Thanks,

This is where the wedge hurts you, since wedges typically don't make it far enough SW.  So the Monday event is a swing and a miss for the southern mtns.  This leaves the Saturday night into Sunday event as the "main show" for you, which still averages 2-4", perhaps 3-5" at higher elevations.

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3 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

This is where the wedge hurts you, since wedges typically don't make it far enough SW.  So the Monday event is a swing and a miss for the southern mtns.  This leaves the Saturday night into Sunday event as the "main show" for you, which still averages 2-4", perhaps 3-5" at higher elevations.

Thanks,  Yea cad usually doesn't make it west of the balsams

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