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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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GSP with an HWO 3 days out. Impressive. 

..Saturday...Winter weather possible. A cold front will bring much
colder air to the region late this week. An area of low pressure is
expected to develop across the Deep South over the weekend and
spread moisture into western North Carolina beginning Saturday night.
While precipitation would probably start out as rain, temperatures
may fall enough Saturday night to support a transition to snow across
the mountains. At least light accumulations are possible. However,
forecast confidence is very low at this time.
..Sunday...Winter weather possible. Chances for accumulating snow
will continue across the mountains into early Sunday.

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Just now, SnoJoe said:

GSP with an HWO 3 days out. Impressive. 


..Saturday...Winter weather possible. A cold front will bring much
colder air to the region late this week. An area of low pressure is
expected to develop across the Deep South over the weekend and
spread moisture into western North Carolina beginning Saturday night.
While precipitation would probably start out as rain, temperatures
may fall enough Saturday night to support a transition to snow across
the mountains. At least light accumulations are possible. However,
forecast confidence is very low at this time.
..Sunday...Winter weather possible. Chances for accumulating snow
will continue across the mountains into early Sunday.

 

Yeah its an interesting setup especially for this time of year. So far we are seeing some good runs. Some consistent runs.

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Midterms are this week so I haven't look at forums much this week, but unlike January storm that screwed me in RDU area, I'll be in Asheville for this one. Mother Nature own me one :)

I do have to say things are looking promising, especially Euro ensembles. NAM and GFS both came in decent, but we'll have to see. Things really improved for Asheville as we got closer to the main event back in January so I'm hoping for repeat of that.

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3 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

 

Here's the 6z Nam. I'm not sure what the ratios would be for the event, but I don't think we should expect but about 75% of this to fall, and 25% of that 75% to stick.

If the Euro is right on temps we'll barely break freezing on Saturday which should help immensely with that. 

 

Also it's spitting out 13-14:1 ratios on Eurowx so not terrible.

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

If the Euro is right on temps we'll barely break freezing on Saturday which should help immensely with that. 

 

Also it's spitting out 13-14:1 ratios on Eurowx so not terrible.

Yea the timing has changed a bit too. It originally was a mostly Saturday afternoon storm that is now a saturday night storm which helps a lot.

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3 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 


You already going to cliff dive on this one?

 

Lol no, I just think it's interesting considering most models weaken the first low as it moves down. Not saying it's likely, but it's a possibility. Waiting for the Euro, since it's been weak and suppressed, if it weakens more...ehhh

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9 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

 


Well that was interesting.

Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk
 

 

I may now be cliff diving lol, unless the Euro shows snow for us saturday, but based on the free maps, I just don't see enough to warrant much attention, but I may be wrong.

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23 minutes ago, jburns said:

My youngest daughter is moving next weekend up to Seven Devils. She will be working at Grandfather Mountain caring for the animals. Nothing like getting a degree and then shoveling bear sh*t. :)

I did an internship up there a couple of years ago. A great place to work as long as you like to talk to people. Or...Bears I guess.

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6 minutes ago, Hvward said:

NAM doubling down at 18z. 8"-10" for all of Buncombe/Haywood. That would be a huge overrunning event. Not sure I buy it though. Stupid Tapatalk images are messed up or I would post the map.

Was just going to mention that. Nam is very impressive with totals in WNC. Especially mid the southern counties near the boarder.

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1 hour ago, franklin NCwx said:

I hope the overrunning pans out. Hoping the coastal gets going in time is not want I'm interested in.

Yeah I agree. We can score and score big in overunning events especially in March. The 14th and 15th time frame still looks great in my opinion. At least according to the 18z. I am game. 

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