nchighcountrywx Posted February 26, 2017 Author Share Posted February 26, 2017 Ahhh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 So...does anyone here still want snow? If so, 12z gfs looks nice with an extended lake effect event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Finally some cold air. Low of 21 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted February 28, 2017 Share Posted February 28, 2017 Clear Temp - 47.8° Wind - Calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted March 1, 2017 Share Posted March 1, 2017 Storms look impressive to the west. Any obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Much like this winter, the front today was a let down for my area. One bolt of lightning. I wanted some action but nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: Much like this winter, the front today was a let down for my area. One bolt of lightning. I wanted some action but nope. I agree Ashe, I heard a distant rumble of thunder and that was it. I only pick up .28 of an inch of rain as well. I don't care what the data might show, but this winter for me will go down as one of the worst. There really just hasn't been one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 5 hours ago, SnoJoe said: I agree Ashe, I heard a distant rumble of thunder and that was it. I only pick up .28 of an inch of rain as well. I don't care what the data might show, but this winter for me will go down as one of the worst. There really just hasn't been one. Yeah this winter has been horrible. So far it has been worst than 2011/12 and that says a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted March 2, 2017 Share Posted March 2, 2017 Any winter when us valley folks can get at least one 5" or more snow is a good winter; no way this goes down as horrible in my book. However, other than the snow, exceptionally warm comes to mind However, the ski resorts I am sure would concur with the horrible winter assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Up early to head down to the Atlanta race and we've got decent flurries in Blowing Rock car has some white on it. Nice surprise. Proofs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 Dust Up. We'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 3, 2017 Author Share Posted March 3, 2017 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/ AS OF 630 AM EST: STILL QUIET EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDINESS UNDERNEATH A SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NW IN THE BROAD LONG WAVE TROF ACROSS THE EAST. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME LIGHT RETURNS MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN TN, WHICH SHOULD RUN UP THE W SIDE OF THE MTNS THROUGH 8 AM. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND PARTIAL THICKNESS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THE LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW, OR AT LEAST IT WOULD BE IF IT WERE TO REACH THE NC MTNS. THIS LEADS US TO OUR FIRST PROBLEM...WHAT COULD BE WINTER'S LAST GASP ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE WILL RUN UP THE MTNS AND PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE NRN MTNS, BUT THAT IT WILL BE A QUICK SHOT. WILL LIMIT THE PROBABILITY TO THE CHANCE RANGE. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE MOISTURE SHOULD PULL OUT BY LATE MORNING, AFTERWARD THE FCST WILL BE DRY. MIN TEMPS ARE ALSO A CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THAT WE WILL HAVE SOME SUB-FREEZING READINGS IN THE LOW-LYING NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING. THE VERY DRY AIR MASS MAY ALSO PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FROST. THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS FAIR AND SEASONALLY COOL AS WE REMAIN UNDERNEATH THE LONG WAVE TROF ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AT THE SFC. TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT JUST BELOW NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL BE MORE OF A PROBLEM AS RH WILL PROBABLY MIX OUT TO THE UPPER TEENS OR LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE. SEE THE FIRE WX DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVERHEAD EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH CLEAR SKY AND CALM WIND. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THAT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP DOWN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALL BUT A FEW OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLANDS AND LARGER LAKES. THE WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL THE ZONES WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS IN EFFECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Now that we get Feb over with, time to move into the real cold weather month of the year, March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 Nice little surprise this morning. More than I thought. Approaching an inch and still have light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 3, 2017 Share Posted March 3, 2017 9 hours ago, SnoJoe said: Nice little surprise this morning. More than I thought. Approaching an inch and still have light snow. Very nice Joe. A cold wind here and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Some of the ensembles/members have a clipper type system sliding just south enough to snow in the NW NC Highcountry Sunday (ironic with the spring time change). Unfortunately others are just warm and rainy. Middle ground is rain to snow, a bit warm mid-levels until the end. Normally I'd punt without a second thought; however, the Euro is the cold one not the GFS. Only thing certain: Discount lift tickets pricing is in effect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Of course now that all my ski gear is in the attic and my spring stuff is in the car, winter decides to show back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Hadn't looked at the EPS in a few days (been at a NASCAR race), but suddenly we have a 3" mean for Sunday in Boone with a lot of big members. Haven't dug too deep to see if those big members are legit or not but nice to see. Supposed to be backpacking in Grayson Highlands, Virgina Sun-Tue so that could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said: Hadn't looked at the EPS in a few days (been at a NASCAR race), but suddenly we have a 3" mean for Sunday in Boone with a lot of big members. Haven't dug too deep to see if those big members are legit or not but nice to see. Supposed to be backpacking in Grayson Highlands, Virgina Sun-Tue so that could be fun. Yea, this "event" went from flurries to possibly something bigger really quickly. Def. could be interesting hike. Never done Grayson in the snow, that might be too much for me to handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 7, 2017 Share Posted March 7, 2017 Euro ensemble this morning has around 30 members with some type of snowfall for KAVL through Sunday. Looks like a few pick up on a baroclinic leaf developing with overrunning precip slamming WNC before the front cuts under the apps. Others have a stronger CAD sig and that produces magic with the main front. Lots of details to hammer out, but this is the time frame where the EPS tends to shine.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Picked up just .16 inches of rain today. Hoped it would be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Picked up just .16 inches of rain today. Hoped it would be more. About an inch and a half here. Rained most of the day and poured all evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Euro ensemble now has all 50 members seeing some form of accumulating snowfall Sat night into Sunday. I think we get hammered with the overrunning precip that develops Saturday afternoon. All major models also give KAVL snowfall. Euro is around 3", GFS is around an inch, and GEM drops 7" with the two wave phase. Still a lot of details to iron out, but this is hard to ignore.. I think Joe hits it big time with this one, 6"+. The valley will get flakes too. I think most of WNC sees 2"-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 8, 2017 Author Share Posted March 8, 2017 Raysweather thinks Plowable Accumulations are likely. Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Nice to see some late sEason snow develop. Euro looks below normal for most of the run. A nice change of past from what we saw in January and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 Color me skeptical for the event this weekend. I don't buy the track of the storm. If the HP back in Canada were to weaken as it gets closer to gametime, this storm could rocket north quickly. *edit. Also if the s/w becomes more amped could be a difference maker. *edit 2. Regardless, it is nice to have something to track with you guys again before winters final end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 12z has two possible snow events for us in under a week. Pretty good if you ask me but still a lot of time to try to iron out the details. I think elevation will play a big factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 NAM went ham. Would be great for us folks, bad for everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 8, 2017 Share Posted March 8, 2017 NAM went ham. Would be great for us folks, bad for everyone else.If I can get 3" out of this I'll ride off into the summer sunset happy. That would get me to roughly 50% of yearly average. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 This was too funny not to share. talk about an interesting March for the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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