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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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haha, yeah.. it drizzled lightly for a 10 minutes here in CHA.. at least the sky proved it could release moisture... haha, at all the people who think this is not worse than 2007. At least in SE Tenn, N. Alabama, and N Georgia. This is unprecedented. Way worse than 2007. 

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It looks like we may see a little rain around the 16th and 17th here on WNC hopefully .  Temps it looks like we stay at or below normal . But  we really need the rain bad! Then we have a a cold front that looks to blast in here around the 19th hopefully with some much needed rain. This us a strong cold front showing up currently that would bring a rain to snow for the mountains but I'm more worried about the rain than anythingelse right now. The problem is this is still a week away and the models have been crap outside 5 days. I still do not see a huge pattern change but at least we are back down to near normal . 

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11 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

It looks like we may see a little rain around the 16th and 17th here on WNC hopefully .  Temps it looks like we stay at or below normal . But  we really need the rain bad! Then we have a a cold front that looks to blast in here around the 19th hopefully with some much needed rain. This us a strong cold front showing up currently that would bring a rain to snow for the mountains but I'm more worried about the rain than anythingelse right now. The problem is this is still a week away and the models have been crap outside 5 days. I still do not see a huge pattern change but at least we are back down to near normal . 

Ain't that the truth for both the GFS and Euro. Complete 180's from run to run at times over the last few weeks. It had better rain soon though, or the mountains are going to be in a real mess once all the leaves are down to fuel the fires. Even areas outside of the mountains, such as the I-85 corridor, will see the fire danger go up unless things change. The mountains will always be much worse though, due to the terrain and being much more rural, making the fires much harder to reach in many cases.

 

Edit: Actually the mountains are already a real mess, but things will get much worse unless rain comes soon.

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1 hour ago, jshetley said:

Ain't that the truth for both the GFS and Euro. Complete 180's from run to run at times over the last few weeks. It had better rain soon though, or the mountains are going to be in a real mess once all the leaves are down to fuel the fires. Even areas outside of the mountains, such as the I-85 corridor, will see the fire danger go up unless things change. The mountains will always be much worse though, due to the terrain and being much more rural, making the fires much harder to reach in many cases.

 

Edit: Actually the mountains are already a real mess, but things will get much worse unless rain comes soon.

Yeah we need rain bad! We have over 10000 acres burning already in WNC .  

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2 hours ago, MikeGold said:

Finally, at least something to speculate about for you mountain folk! :)

 

 

map.jpg

Lol that's something  but I'll take a ton of rain first. I really like the look of the GFS. but can we trust it. The Euro has been bouncing around every model run. It's back to a decent run today on the 12z but it could look better. 

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Had a low of 24 degrees this morning. We have actually had several frosts and freezes lately. Looking at the indices the ao looks to bomb again, the nao looks to possibly go negative and the PNA is a toss up. hopefully the epo goes negative which will help a lot. So it looks like this weekend may finally be our real taste of winter for the season. Our rain chances look meager. Currently it actually looks like we have a bethere shot a some snow showers than ran showers. Hopefully the trough digs deep so we can get some more moisture in here. I'll keep yall updated but this week looks very boring until this weekend . 

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7 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Had a low of 24 degrees this morning. We have actually had several frosts and freezes lately. Looking at the indices the ao looks to bomb again, the nao looks to possibly go negative and the PNA is a toss up. hopefully the epo goes negative which will help a lot. So it looks like this weekend may finally be our real taste of winter for the season. Our rain chances look meager. Currently it actually looks like we have a bethere shot a some snow showers than ran showers. Hopefully the trough digs deep so we can get some more moisture in here. I'll keep yall updated but this week looks very boring until this weekend . 

Looks to me like this will be your last boring week probably till next year. Things are fixing to change to alot of our liking. Winter will be settling in full force by and during Thanksgiving Holliday weekend. I see a 2010 looking December on the horizon. if we can't get any rain to douse the fires a blanket of snow will do the trick as well.

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11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Looks to me like this will be your last boring week probably till next year. Things are fixing to change to alot of our liking. Winter will be settling in full force by and during Thanksgiving Holliday weekend. I see a 2010 looking December on the horizon. if we can't get any rain to douse the fires a blanket of snow will do the trick as well.

Yeah I'm being very cautious. We will see what transpires. This week will be very telling for the first of December. We needs some freaking rain though!

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Dust Up

Quote

    LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/     AS OF 140 AM EST TUESDAY, AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH AN   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST THIS WEEKEND AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST.   AT 12Z FRIDAY, A 500MB HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER EAST GEORGIA AND   MOVING OFF THE COAST AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE   ECMWF RETAINS MORE MOISTURE AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION ON   SATURDAY. THE GFS DRIES UP THE PREFRONTAL MOISTURE AS THE FRONT GETS   TO THE NC MOUNTAINS. THE ECMWF MOISTURE WILL BE MAINLY OVER WESTERN   NC DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, THEN NW FLOW PRODUCES LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS   ALONG NC AND TN BORDER EARLY TO MID DAY SUNDAY. CLOSED LOW OVER NYC   LATE SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.   TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC MONDAY AS THE RIDGE CROSSES THE   PLAINS AND MISS VALLEY AND FLATTENS. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES NEXT WEEK   WITH TEMPS MODIFYING.     MAX TEMPS NEARLY TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT   THEN DROPPING TO ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT   SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS BEGIN TO GET WARMER MONDAY AND MONDAY  

 

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