FlatLander48 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 18z storm on the 6th is an apps runner with wrap around snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 00z still looks really good from tomorrow through next Monday. It's a bit juicier in the central to southern moutains also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 6Z hammers the border counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 7 hours ago, Met1985 said: 00z still looks really good from tomorrow through next Monday. It's a bit juicier in the central to southern moutains also. Good to hear; would be nice to see at least a few flakes to remind us that it is still winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Unfortunately, the storm on the 6th is continuning to be progged as an apps runner, and the only thing we're left with is wrap around snow. Would like to see some change in that track, but with no cold air in front, wouldn't surprise me if that were to be a likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 this is sad, not even any fantasy snow 2 weeks from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 2 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said: Unfortunately, the storm on the 6th is continuning to be progged as an apps runner, and the only thing we're left with is wrap around snow. Would like to see some change in that track, but with no cold air in front, wouldn't surprise me if that were to be a likely solution. I wouldn't worry about something 10 days out currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I wouldn't worry about something 10 days out currently. I am. since everyone else has the model pbp down pat for this weekends little thing, figured i would go ahead and focus on the 6th, since I posted on it first lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 The wind is really picking up and temps are starting to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The wind is really picking up and temps are starting to fall. Same here. If that clipper continues to dig farther west the flow will be more westerly. Something that would be good for me but hurt you and joe. You should do well before then as the winds are due nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 44 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Same here. If that clipper continues to dig farther west the flow will be more westerly. Something that would be good for me but hurt you and joe. You should do well before then as the winds are due nw. Yeah we will see what happens. It looks like it could be more westerly which means the balsams would get it more and it would be more for the southern mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 Good news on the 12z GFS: We didn't have +20 temp anomalies like the 6z run had. Bad News: close to 0 snow potential. Also bad: the 12z run took 1/4 of this weekends snow accum. away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 I'm not sure where I would look up this info, but has there been a winter for the mountains that failed to hit 50% of the average? Right now I'm 8 inches short of 15 inches which would be halfway to climo for ashe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2017 Share Posted January 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I'm not sure where I would look up this info, but has there been a winter for the mountains that failed to hit 50% of the average? Right now I'm 8 inches short of 15 inches which would be halfway to climo for ashe. 2011/12 for me. We only got 14 inches the whole season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Such a shame . Graham County schools (NC)are cancelled tomorrow because the school system uses weather.com,intellicast.com and weather underground for weather forecast..They all say 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow. NWS says 20% chance of flurries.. Partly Sunny!! It's a shame these outlets can put out such ridiculous forecast that people's livelihood depends on. Has anyone else in WNC checked their local forecast on any of these websites? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 It's gonna be dry tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: It's gonna be dry tomorrow. Yep..Me and you know that but 90% of the public does not..Type in Robbinsville,NC on intellicast or weather.com and you will get 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow.. Ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 54 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Yep..Me and you know that but 90% of the public does not..Type in Robbinsville,NC on intellicast or weather.com and you will get 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow.. Ridiculous That's crazy they cancelled school. That is gonna be a terrible day to makeup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Not that it matter but the 00z nam is a little better for the northern border counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Nothing on radar but a light flurry here. Cold, 23.7° with a breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I'm sure a few of you have seen this recent article: http://www.blueridgenow.com/news/20170115/weather-committee-nixes-2016-mount-mitchell-record-snowfall I wonder who exactly was on this committee? Their results really don't even pass the laugh test. They decided to use the liquid equivalent that fell at Fletcher(which is town that typically is one of the driest locations in North Carolina) and then adjusted it for the expected snow ratio that Mt. Mitchell had to determine the snowfall amount. As a result, they dropped it down from 41 inches to 21 inches. It hard to believe that the rangers that have spent years and years measuring snowfall on that mountain top would screw up so badly. Recalling some of the photos that were taken up there, it certainly looked more than 41 than 21. Further, I wonder if this committee has heard of orographic. enhancement? Did they adjust for that or did it slip their mind? It has been studied very extensively locally and mountain locations often receive double(or more) than the precipitation amount than valley locations if wind is in play and it certainly was during that storm. My guess is more likely there was some drifting that inflated the results by few inches but not much more than that. Over the years, Mt. Mitchell has often received both very high snowfall amounts and rainfall amounts compared to nearby locations; nothing new with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 56 minutes ago, MikeGold said: I'm sure a few of you have seen this recent article: http://www.blueridgenow.com/news/20170115/weather-committee-nixes-2016-mount-mitchell-record-snowfall I wonder who exactly was on this committee? Their results really don't even pass the laugh test. They decided to use the liquid equivalent that fell at Fletcher(which is town that typically is one of the driest locations in North Carolina) and then adjusted it for the expected snow ratio that Mt. Mitchell had to determine the snowfall amount. As a result, they dropped it down from 41 inches to 21 inches. It hard to believe that the rangers that have spent years and years measuring snowfall on that mountain top would screw up so badly. Recalling some of the photos that were taken up there, it certainly looked more than 41 than 21. Further, I wonder if this committee has heard of orographic. enhancement? Did they adjust for that or did it slip their mind? It has been studied very extensively locally and mountain locations often receive double(or more) than the precipitation amount than valley locations if wind is in play and it certainly was during that storm. My guess is more likely there was some drifting that inflated the results by few inches but not much more than that. Over the years, Mt. Mitchell has often received both very high snowfall amounts and rainfall amounts compared to nearby locations; nothing new with that. Great post Mike! Read their explanation and it was truly laughable. Ashame they can so easily debunk without even being there. I am sure the rangers have got an idea how to measure snow as it is not really rocket science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 After 24 hours of crap runs, The Feb 6th storm is still on the table....thank goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, MikeGold said: I'm sure a few of you have seen this recent article: http://www.blueridgenow.com/news/20170115/weather-committee-nixes-2016-mount-mitchell-record-snowfall That's crazy if you ask me. I know we had over a foot here at around 3500 feet. I know some people had close to 18 inches around here in that storm. It basically snowed on and off for 3 days straight. And to say they applied other measurements around is crazy unless they have multiple sights at over 6000 feet. Sounds political to me. The people up there are professional and know what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 3 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: After 24 hours of crap runs, The Feb 6th storm is still on the table....thank goodness. Keep us updated. Clouds are moving in and the radar is looking better for maybe some moisture to get in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 24 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Keep us updated. Clouds are moving in and the radar is looking better for maybe some moisture to get in here. Yea, im basically in wishcasting mode at this point for snow lol. Good to see some snow falling right now. Still excited for Sunday night, but I'm skeptical on getting more than just a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeGold Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 33 minutes ago, Met1985 said: That's crazy if you ask me. I know we had over a foot here at around 3500 feet. I know some people had close to 18 inches around here in that storm. It basically snowed on and off for 3 days straight. And to say they applied other measurements around is crazy unless they have multiple sights at over 6000 feet. Sounds political to me. The people up there are professional and know what they are doing. I have no idea what the heck went on with that. If they are going through the bother to review/revise it you would think they could at least base it on real science! An example of a proper review can be found here: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/extremes/ncec/mantague-ny-snowfall-24hour.pdf As you can see, these kind of reviews can be done properly; in this case reviewing a 77 inch 24 hour snowfall report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob2016 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 12 hours ago, snowbird1230 said: Yep..Me and you know that but 90% of the public does not..Type in Robbinsville,NC on intellicast or weather.com and you will get 3-5 inches of snow tomorrow.. Ridiculous I checked weather this morning shows clear skies and temperature of 43 of a low today no snow report, funny how someone cancels school for this they got it wrong kids are at home and they are gonna see sunshine those school teachers and staff are gonna get grilled for it,cause.tjey cancelled school saying 3-5 inches the sky is clear out there some areas may get some clouds and sun maybe a flurry then gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said: Yea, im basically in wishcasting mode at this point for snow lol. Good to see some snow falling right now. Still excited for Sunday night, but I'm skeptical on getting more than just a couple of inches. Yep I'm hoping Asheville will at least have the ground covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Very light snow this morning. Had just enough overnight to dust the ground a little. Cold though with a temp of 20.8°. Looking forward to a weekend that will at least feel like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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