Met1985 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Patchy frost with a low of 32 degrees. The models have trended worst in our pattern change. It looks like an elongated trough across the country instead of a ridge/trough west to east. Not good changes in my opinion but we are a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Patchy frost with a low of 32 degrees. The models have trended worst in our pattern change. It looks like an elongated trough across the country instead of a ridge/trough west to east. Not good changes in my opinion but we are a week away. Tell me its not so, I'm ready for winter to return, I'll be ready for these temps come April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Idk what it is but I'm really not even feeling winter right now. There's a chance with all the rain coming that the slopes will have to close again next week which is a real bummer, was gonna have one of my friends finally teach me to board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Lol looks like I spoke too soon. Today's 12z run is a thing of beauty for the NW facing slopes. We just get hammered with one system after another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 Well I'm eating my words this morning. It looks like the models have reverted back to a nice ridge out west trough in the east. Brings in plenty of cold air with lots of systems from the north. The euro is a thing of beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 You elevation and west facing slope guys/gals have to be liking the 12z gfs and euro. Looks like a clipper party where not many others are invited.... Hope you can reel a good period in, along with the slope owners! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 2 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: You elevation and west facing slope guys/gals have to be liking the 12z gfs and euro. Looks like a clipper party where not many others are invited.... Hope you can reel a good period in, along with the slope owners! Yeah the west facing slopes just get hammered. Iv not seen a pattern like that setup for well over 4 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 19, 2017 Share Posted January 19, 2017 I was really trying not to get excited about the upcoming pattern since clippers are horrible for me, but the GFS showed a bone worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 48 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I was really trying not to get excited about the upcoming pattern since clippers are horrible for me, but the GFS showed a bone worth watching. Yeah several opportunities that I see. It looks like we are below normal from about hour 165 through the end of the run on the 18z. Taking that with a grain of salt but the potential is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 The models continue to look good especially the GFS. It's a better ridge trough orientation. Lots of northern energy it looks like in the gfs. I know that does not help a lot of people but we have not seen this type pattern take place on probably about 3 to 4 years with consistency. We are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 20, 2017 Share Posted January 20, 2017 The 18z looks a bit juicier than the 12z for us. Cold air get in here with a bit more moisture but the cold air is marginal but for us that's all we need. It does this weird thing where it digs the trough back almost to the western North Gulf Coast before setting eastward. That allows more moisture and a deeper trough. Not necessarily all that cold but a good H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: The 18z looks a bit juicier than the 12z for us. Cold air get in here with a bit more moisture but the cold air is marginal but for us that's all we need. It does this weird thing where it digs the trough back almost to the western North Gulf Coast before setting eastward. That allows more moisture and a deeper trough. Not necessarily all that cold but a good H5. Seems that we can never get the cold to hang around like back in the sixties and seventies, we get a cold shot now and lucky to have it for a day or two where as it use to hang around for a week or two. Go Figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, fritschy said: Seems that we can never get the cold to hang around like back in the sixties and seventies, we get a cold shot now and lucky to have it for a day or two where as it use to hang around for a week or two. Go Figure. Yeah climate change probably has something to do with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The 00Z is more of the same. Just cold and a parade of clippers. Personally I'll take it. The boarder counties would just get pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The euro is either latching onto something or its been hitting the bottle too much because it is night and day between the euro and gfs. The euro looks atrocious with the mid range pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 hours ago, fritschy said: Seems that we can never get the cold to hang around like back in the sixties and seventies, we get a cold shot now and lucky to have it for a day or two where as it use to hang around for a week or two. Go Figure. We have had plenty of good winters in the last decade, especially since most were ninas. You only remember the great winters of years past and forget the bad ones. You live in Asheville not anchorage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The euro might be picking up on a trend because the 06Z gfs looks horrible. Really nothing new than what we have already scene this winter. The blocking breaks down quick and the ridge out west collapses. The look in the mid to long range looks pretty meh if you ask me. Still early and we may see runs like this from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 36 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: We have had plenty of good winters in the last decade, especially since most were ninas. You only remember the great winters of years past and forget the bad ones. You live in Asheville not anchorage. still nothing like it use to be, no where close, I guess we're in the old what goes around comes around, we just need those winters of the past to come back around, and yes I know this is Asheville but we use to have great winters year after year. sometimes one snowstorm right on the heels of one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 11 minutes ago, fritschy said: still nothing like it use to be, no where close, I guess we're in the old what goes around comes around, we just need those winters of the past to come back around, and yes I know this is Asheville but we use to have great winters year after year. sometimes one snowstorm right on the heels of one. That doesn't happen very often. There is a reason why asheville only averages 16 inches per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 23 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: That doesn't happen very often. There is a reason why asheville only averages 16 inches per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 The models continue to look crappy. We get a brief shot of cold air, we'll marginal cold air and then it looks like the pattern kind of just breaks down. I'm not as impressed with the upslope look either especially with the trough in the east looking not as sharp. Maybe Pack was right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 21, 2017 Share Posted January 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: The models continue to look crappy. We get a brief shot of cold air, we'll marginal cold air and then it looks like the pattern kind of just breaks down. I'm not as impressed with the upslope look either especially with the trough in the east looking not as sharp. Maybe Pack was right. 3km NAM ends the mountains as snow on Monday night. That would be nice though it wouldn't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 I think I made a post saying we were going to have a good February??? I'm sticking to that, but I'm less optimistic about January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Tyler Penland said: 3km NAM ends the mountains as snow on Monday night. That would be nice though it wouldn't amount to much. Yeah anything is a moral victory lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 22, 2017 Share Posted January 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I think I made a post saying we were going to have a good February??? I'm sticking to that, but I'm less optimistic about January. Yeah I just hate seeing the models progressively get worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Finally heard some thunder, yall know what that means!!! Kidding, I'm done with winter,just give me good disc golf and hammock weather already. Although we'll probably get a late season push of cold that delays spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Big storms tonight! Heavy rain with numerous lightning strikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Dang these storms mean business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 And BOOM we're back in the snow potential business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 GFS is cold for the mountains most of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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