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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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Also looking at the gfs it continues to back build moisture in most of the day before we go to upslope snow. This upslope snow signal has only increased with each run since yesterday. I'm thinking maybe an additional 2 to 4 inches possibly just with the upslope factors. You could start to see yesterday on the GFS the TN/NC boarder counties where seeing an uptick each run with snow accumulation. I definitely think may see storm totals of over a foot of snow in several locations. Also man the wind is absolutely ripping!  Wind chills have got to be down around zero.

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7 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Still ripping !!
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Nice, strong!  My pics are apparently too large of files to upload to either this site or imgur, but I measured exactly 8 inches in multiple places on the floor of the deck.  Still snowing.  Pretty amazing.  I think this is the largest snowfall my kids have ever seen.  The Feb 2014 and Dec 2010 snows were big too in our backyard, but just slightly less than what we have today despite what the NWS Past Events page shows.

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2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Nice, strong!  My pics are apparently too large of files to upload to either this site or imgur, but I measured exactly 8 inches in multiple places on the floor of the deck.  Still snowing.  Pretty amazing.  I think this is the largest snowfall my kids have ever seen.  The Feb 2014 and Dec 2010 snows were big too in our backyard, but just slightly less than what we have today despite what the NWS Past Events page shows.

 

Same here (got a 7 and 2 year old) Added 2.5" since 1:30am. Looking to pick up more as it wrings out. 

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35 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

8.0" here in southwest Buncombe county. Overall not a bad forecast!


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A very good forecast for our area.  Hopefully, we will able to track a few more, but this is a good one.

 

14 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Nice! Congrats to all. Any reports out of N Buncombe? Curious as to how the old hood did.

I saw one report from Weaverville of 4 inches and one from Alexander of 5 inches.

 

8 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said:

7" here still moderate snow with occasionally heavy bursts. No wind to speak of. Yet.

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Very nice ! I am sure you have more to come!

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1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:

A very good forecast for our area.  Hopefully, we will able to track a few more, but this is a good one.

 

I saw one report from Weaverville of 4 inches and one from Alexander of 5 inches.

 

Very nice ! I am sure you have more to come!

Thanks Jason......Everyone enjoy it!

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Some interesting wording in here! Foothill peeps be aware:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 630 AM EST Saturday: Still seeing some light snow across the
area and the deformation zone hasn`t made it to the region just yet,
but with the delay of cold air have taken the warning across the
southern tier to an advisory. Some updates to pops and near-term
temperature trends but nothing significant.

Otherwise, guessing that probably half of the residents across the
area are happy with us right now, and the other half not so happy.
As usual, the rain/snow line has been hovering along and just south
of I-85 through the early morning hours, and as was the concern last
night, cold air has lagged the moisture across southern and
southeastern zones with mainly just a cold rain observed. All is not
lost however because the cold air IS coming (wetbulb zero line has
made a little faster progress to the SE over the past couple of
hours) and there`s still some precip out there. 06z KGSO sounding
was fully below freezing everywhere but soundings out of NCSU
indicated more of a warm nose than was forecast (the NAM had the
closest and of course that was NOT the model of choice last night.
Typical...), and so we`ve seen a little more sleet southeast of I-85
which has really complicated accumulations. Averaging the zones it
ended up verifying pretty well but for example knowing that there`s
snow on the north side of Charlotte is little comfort to kiddos on
the south side. However, the event isn`t over yet! Still seeing some
light bands across TN and GA, and hi-res models still want to
develop some banding in the deformation axis later this morning
(that if perfect-progged would stretch from the foothills to the
Upper Savannah Valley and then push east with the exiting surface
low). Between that and the low-level CAA, will leave the warning in
place but will re-word some of the southern to emphasize the black
ice more where we probably won`t end up with accumulations actually
meeting technical warning criteria (though in all fairness some of
the sleet accumulations might actually reach the 1/2" criteria).

The other concern is that as we start getting some drying aloft,
unless there`s enough omega to pull moisture up to the dendritic
snow growth zone (which would be the case in a deformation axis),
then we lose the ice crystals aloft and end up with supercooled
liquid so we could see some light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.
Again, these are details that are really hard to convey in the grids
so just putting it out there.

Otherwise for today we have some bust potential in highs because
most guidance was expecting a little more snow on the southern end
of the forecast area and if that doesn`t pan out, temps might warm
up a little more than expected today. Nevertheless strong CAA behind
the front will keep temperatures well below normal especially across
the mountains. Add to it the increasing pressure gradient as the
surface low strengthens off the coast and with temperatures dropping
into the lower teens and single digits in the mountains, it`ll just
be downright brutal tonight in the mountains.  With that, have
issued a Wind Chill Advisory starting 00z for all the mountains
(criteria -5C), and a Wind Chill Warning for Yancey Mitchell and
Avery (criteria -15C). Still above record lows for the climate
locations but within a handful of degrees so will have to reevaluate
closely with this afternoon`s package.
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