Met1985 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Well if it helps, here are the KAVL temperature graphs for the 2010-2011 Weak/Moderate La Nina. Early to mid-November was a scorcher and then it plummeted well below average toward the end, and through nearly all of January. Hopefully we can follow the same pattern. Yeah I remember that year very well. It's like December came and the whole pattern flipped. We literally went into the freezer. We had 2 feet of snow Christmas weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 26, 2016 Share Posted October 26, 2016 Another cold frosty morning with a low of 31 degrees. Yesterdays high was in the 60s so not too bad at all. The warm weather will be here but the indices all look good going into November. No way the upper level features don't respond to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 10 hours ago, Met1985 said: Another cold frosty morning with a low of 31 degrees. Yesterdays high was in the 60s so not too bad at all. The warm weather will be here but the indices all look good going into November. No way the upper level features don't respond to that. I agree..... if the indices that are modeled today continue to keep that look, you will see a dramatic change in the long range forecasts over the next week. We are nearing the point in the season when a +PNA / -NAO / -AO has a more pronounced effect. Obviously it would have greater implications if it were in January, but hey, I'll take it. Maybe we are setting the table for the winter pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 10 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: I agree..... if the indices that are modeled today continue to keep that look, you will see a dramatic change in the long range forecasts over the next week. We are nearing the point in the season when a +PNA / -NAO / -AO has a more pronounced effect. Obviously it would have greater implications if it were in January, but hey, I'll take it. Maybe we are setting the table for the winter pattern.... Yeah I agree. I'll be keeping a close look at the indices for sure. The long range just seems not to be responding currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 27, 2016 Share Posted October 27, 2016 Again today the indices still look good going into November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 finally that time of year where the gfs will have fantasy storms...986mb and deepening...NC mountain tops on the west side w/ temps crashing for Heavy Snow on the tail end after predominately rain falls. It's a start, even if a poor one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 This morning's GFS looks awful for any cold weather let alone normal weather. Next week it a toaster bath. Very warm for this time of the year. The Pac NW looks awful and there is really no hint of cold in the conus. The euro weeklies look good apparently but I'm not biting yet. What they are showing is a month away. I think the pattern change collapses by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 Next week looks great to do some grilling . Going to be beautiful weather for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 28, 2016 Share Posted October 28, 2016 The euro looks like a train wreck with the pac screaming straight into Canada. no cold air hardly to be found . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 The 12z GFS absolutely drops the hammer across the country . If that's our pattern Change then I can wait. Too bad this is entrainment purposes only . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 The euro has a bit of an up and down to it. still mild and in some cases vert mild but it looks like we are finally getting into the time frame where we see the hammer drop. the indices still look very good but I'm not jumping on board yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 29, 2016 Share Posted October 29, 2016 Seems like both the gfs and the Euro are honing in on the major pattern change. As I was looking up in the New England thread Ginx though that this change would be pretty abrupt and the way it's looking that may be correct . There are some positive signs finally . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 The models are waffling but I'm not surprised . The Polar vortex is taking a beating and the indices continue to all look great. The AO is just very impressive with staying negative and very negative at that. also it looks like we get a reprieve in the super warmth we have been seeing around the 3rd of November then I think another brief warm up then the hammer drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: The models are waffling but I'm not surprised . The Polar vortex is taking a beating and the indices continue to all look great. The AO is just very impressive with staying negative and very negative at that. also it looks like we get a reprieve in the super warmth we have been seeing around the 3rd of November then I think another brief warm up then the hammer drops. Umm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 11 minutes ago, jburns said: Umm..... Lol possibly that big. it could be a big hammer or a small one. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 30, 2016 Share Posted October 30, 2016 The only thing I can say with any positivity is that it's going to be warm then around the 3Rd or 4th we will cool down to probably near normal then about past 5 days it's a crap shoot. This pattern change will be a global change so lots of things on motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 Keep us posted Met! I thought the leaves this year were pretty terrible, at least around here. A little splash of color then straight to brown. And I guess because it's so dry, the trees stripped them. We're buried. That doesn't usually happen until Thanksgiving. Looks like winter with record heat. Kind'a strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 31, 2016 Share Posted October 31, 2016 27 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Keep us posted Met! I thought the leaves this year were pretty terrible, at least around here. A little splash of color then straight to brown. And I guess because it's so dry, the trees stripped them. We're buried. That doesn't usually happen until Thanksgiving. Looks like winter with record heat. Kind'a strange. Lol no kidding ! Pretty much the same here. It looks like Fall but feels like summer. What a strange crappy past 12 to 18 months we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 1, 2016 Share Posted November 1, 2016 40 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: That would be one heck of a flip. The indices still look really good . Of course there are going to be changes from day to day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 2, 2016 Share Posted November 2, 2016 The indices look good but I think November will be a transition month as a whole. I think I'm getting ahead of myself on the cold coming in in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 7 days, but an interesting look. We could surely use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 Getting geared up to head to Seven Devils for the long Veterans' Day weekend. V Day is also my anniversary and we love heading up each year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 3, 2016 Share Posted November 3, 2016 The indices look like there is a lot of spread on them after 1 week. Nothing new really going forward. We cool down this weekend but go back above normal next week again. If the indices fall apart then we will not have a fast start to winter like some are predicting in my opinion . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Nothing really new besides we stay dry and above normal for another month probably . our pattern change seems to have been delayed if we even havery one . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 39 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Nothing really new besides we stay dry and above normal for another month probably . our pattern change seems to have been delayed if we even havery one . Call me a cliff jumper if you want, but I don't think this winter will feature even average snowfall. After last year, I'm fairly certain it will take this winter, and maybe one more before we see another good one. That screaming Pacific Jet is screwing us and it's not going to stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 25 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Call me a cliff jumper if you want, but I don't think this winter will feature even average snowfall. After last year, I'm fairly certain it will take this winter, and maybe one more before we see another good one. That screaming Pacific Jet is screwing us and it's not going to stop. Good Lord, take a step back, man. If it were just the SE torching, you might be onto something. However, all of the U.S. and the majority of Canada are roasting well above normal. It will break at some point. It has to. Alberta isn't going to experience 20°+ departures, all winter long. You're right in that our winter may just suck, but it won't be because our current nationwide pattern stays the same all winter long. It just won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 15 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: Good Lord, take a step back, man. If it were just the SE torching, you might be onto something. However, all of the U.S. and the majority of Canada are roasting well above normal. It will break at some point. It has to. Alberta isn't going to experience 20°+ departures, all winter long. You're right in that our winter may just suck, but it won't be because our current nationwide pattern stays the same all winter long. It just won't. Yeah I mean it early but wow had this year been a big cluster F! This year has been one of the warnest I can remember . This fall has been one of the warmest. We have a long way to go but I do not like seeing the cold air on the other side of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 Heavy frost with a low of 27 degrees . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 33 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Heavy frost with a low of 27 degrees . Wow. I'm at a balmy 45.2. Inversion city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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