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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Dang that's beautiful! It just keeps shifting north.

Bingo.  I know models are going solidly 4-8" for most mountain locations, but this north shift is still ongoing.  Plus, every single member of the GEFS was at least 6" for the mountains.  I am starting to think the models are still playing catch-up to the strength of the system.  This leads me to believe the current forecast may be too low.

If this is true (and to me the GEFS supports this idea), no model would be able to catch it in time before the event hits.  The HRRR has been all over the place this morning with location, amounts, and temps.  A near-term model struggling with the dynamics of a developing storm.  Stay tuned everyone.  We might be in for a surprise.

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3 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Bingo.  I know models are going solidly 4-8" for most mountain locations, but this north shift is still ongoing.  Plus, every single member of the GEFS was at least 6" for the mountains.  I am starting to think the models are still playing catch-up to the strength of the system.  This leads me to believe the current forecast may be too low.

If this is true (and to me the GEFS supports this idea), no model would be able to catch it in time before the event hits.  The HRRR has been all over the place this morning with location, amounts, and temps.  A near-term model struggling with the dynamics of a developing storm.  Stay tuned everyone.  We might be in for a surprise.

I was just thinking this looking at some data from the models and here we are practically at go time and we are still seeing significant changes from the models with a north trend. The good and bad of this like you said is the models have played catch up way too late. This maybe a scenario where we really see the axis of the best temps/moisture shift in real time instead of model time. This will make some happy and a lot miserable.

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8 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Bingo.  I know models are going solidly 4-8" for most mountain locations, but this north shift is still ongoing.  Plus, every single member of the GEFS was at least 6" for the mountains.  I am starting to think the models are still playing catch-up to the strength of the system.  This leads me to believe the current forecast may be too low.

If this is true (and to me the GEFS supports this idea), no model would be able to catch it in time before the event hits.  The HRRR has been all over the place this morning with location, amounts, and temps.  A near-term model struggling with the dynamics of a developing storm.  Stay tuned everyone.  We might be in for a surprise.

I feel this is a very logical way to put it. The GFS, Euro, even the UKMET had troubles the whole way with showing how strong the s/w would be coming out of the Rockies so it would make sense that they are still having trouble now.

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