Tyler Penland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Rgem is coming in more amped than 18zYep it's joined the party. .4 qpf here. 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Alright guys...NAM has a companion in the latest RGEM. That's two down! Impressive trends this evening. Makes a world of difference when the system is properly initialized! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk It's hard to believe models like the ICON, the NAM, and..the Ukie (maybe?) were the only ones to show a stronger s/w coming across the country. That's our big difference maker right now. Have to see if the GFS catches onto it soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, HurricaneTracker said: Alright guys...NAM has a companion in the latest RGEM. That's two down! Impressive trends this evening. Makes a world of difference when the system is properly initialized! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah we really need a stronger storm to take place to help it move north. If it's week we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 4 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Alright guys...NAM has a companion in the latest RGEM. That's two down! Impressive trends this evening. Makes a world of difference when the system is properly initialized! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk HT, how is this thing looking out west compared to what the models have shown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Gfs coming up fellas. This would be a huge score if this showed a stronger northward storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Gfs coming up fellas. This would be a huge score if this showed a stronger northward storm I hope it doesn't rip my heart out. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Nothing really falling around WNC right now but got a chance to stop and check out the models and the trends look great! Hoping to see the GFS come in with more precip compared to 18z that would make me feel better.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 HT, how is this thing looking out west compared to what the models have shown?Based on discussion in the main thread and what I saw, morning models were too weak with the wave over the 4 corners. Then 00Z upper air data better sampled the system over far west Texas and eastern New Mexico and boom...turns out our little wave survived the trek across the Rockies far better than most models originally had. So this evenings runs are essentially self-corrections. Good signs for the WNC mountains. Would like to have seen more precip from the RGEM but at least it ramped things up over its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just from initial look the GFS doesn't look like it will be amped like the NAM. Probably not a great start for us. Edit: Yep. GFS still has a pretty different look than the NAM and the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Not quite there for the GFS in relation to the RGEM and NAM but closer for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Yep, I much prefer what the mesoscale models are dishing out. The GFS never really makes the sharp turn to come up the coast that would really throw the moisture back this way.Sent from my 6045O using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I thought it was an improvement back from what the 18z was showing. A good run I thought. Better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: I thought it was an improvement back from what the 18z was showing. A good run I thought. Better. It is, especially for the upslope areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said: It is, especially for the upslope areas. Yeah was a better run in general for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3km NAM has a bulls eye of 12" over my house. PLLLLEEEEAAAAASSSSEEE happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 3km NAM has a bulls eye of 12" over my house. PLLLLEEEEAAAAASSSSEEE happen. Lol it can't be right. There is no NW trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Lol it can't be right. There is no NW trend.It's scientific fact that it's DONE! LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY1894 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: 3km NAM has a bulls eye of 12" over my house. PLLLLEEEEAAAAASSSSEEE happen. Link?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol it can't be right. There is no NW trend. Nope not at all. Even the GFS gives me 7" so I'd take that. Perfect for getting out on the Parkway for some photography on Saturday morning before work and then Sun-Tue since it won't be melting anytime soon ha. GFS-7" 4km NAM- 9" 3km NAM-12" RGEM- ~7-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, HKY1894 said: Link?? Check it out on www.pivotalweather.com They have a product that takes into account ratios too (Kuchera). It's fairly accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I think Boone will see around 3.5" as of how it looks now. Obviously still a little early (Blacksburg waiting on the EURO) to decide between advisory/warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Euro has joined the party. .4" QPF IMBY so around that lovely 1/2' mark. Eurowx has ratios 15-18:1. IMO we're in for a good 6-8" storm, maybe a tick higher along/near the escarpment. Hope all you guys have a fantastic storm as well. Been fun forecasting through the ups and downs! Still getting used to not having to worry about temps after so many years in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Looks like everything remained status quo last night. Ready to see what happens! SREF plumes remain healthy. I'm still not optimistic like many on here and expect 1-3 for many mountain/foothill locations. NAM is not nearly as amped as it was last night. Hows our storm looking out west this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Increased QPF for WNC on 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I am going to go with 3"-6" for most of WNC with 5"-8" along the NC/SC border counties.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hvward said: I am going to go with 3"-6" for most of WNC with 5"-8" along the NC/SC border counties. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I sit about 20 miles North of SC and about 5 miles east of Forest City. Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 30 minutes ago, Hvward said: I am going to go with 3"-6" for most of WNC with 5"-8" along the NC/SC border counties. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Looks like a good call. I was looking at 6 for mby after the recent runs. The 03z sref held at inches with a cluster either side of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I am concerned about the snow shadow that's showing up in all the models for Asheville. This is a real feature and must be accounted for. So, current thinking is 4-8" for all mountain areas. Downtown AVL will be less, 2-4"But AVL airport will be 3-6"Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 No doubt that snow shadow is an issue. I don't have the data but it seems like every precip event we have had since maybe last spring or early summer was on the light side in town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I am concerned about the snow shadow that's showing up in all the models for Asheville. This is a real feature and must be accounted for. So, current thinking is 4-8" for all mountain areas. Downtown AVL will be less, 2-4"But AVL airport will be 3-6"Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkYeah snow hole has been there for a while but it has been less pronounced over the last few runs. I don't think downtown will see as much as the airport, but I think 3"-6" will be attainable on the lower end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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