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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread


nchighcountrywx

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This was posted yesterday morning from GSP:

"For now we feel the best choice is to stick with the GFS-like solution, which is more in line with the trends of late; this puts the peak PoPs early Saturday and does not support FZRA or IP within the CWFA border. Accums are based mostly on WPC QPF and a 12:1 ratio; this would be slightly above climo, which seems likely based on the exceptionally cold profiles."

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3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Euro and Nam would agree with that. GFS and UK would say what you talking about?! 

Lets me and you hope the GFS is right.....lol I also think GSP is leaning more on the GFS with there forecast due to more consistency. I wouldn't be suprised if were upgraded to a WSW by morning....fingers crossed.

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Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

If we are talking Euro of old I would totally agree. It couldn't be touched in the 48-96 window 

It's true that the EURO isnt quite what it used to be but its verification scores are still a lot better than the GFS... The UKMET does give me some hope though for your area and mine..

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Boom! here ya go fellas....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...

.A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES SATURDAY MORNING.

NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062-063-501>506-060400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0001.170107T0000Z-170107T1800Z/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...
BETHLEHEM...ELLENDALE...MILLERSVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE...
STONY POINT...FAUST...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT...
ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK...SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...
MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK...SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ALARKA...
ALMOND...BRYSON CITY...LUADA...WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...
WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO...COVE CREEK...ASHEVILLE...
ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS...WOLF MOUNTAIN...
CASHIERS...PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...LENOIR...SAWMILLS...
GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...PLEASANT GROVE...
VALDESE...ASHFORD...SUGAR HILL...WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...MARION...
NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...GLENWOOD
315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7
PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH
  CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND
  MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE
  SNOW ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES EARLY SATURDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY CALLING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A
MESSAGE WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

CDG
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4 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Boom! here ya go fellas....


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...

.A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES SATURDAY MORNING.

NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062-063-501>506-060400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0001.170107T0000Z-170107T1800Z/
AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...
BETHLEHEM...ELLENDALE...MILLERSVILLE...TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE...
STONY POINT...FAUST...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT...
ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK...SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...
MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK...SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ALARKA...
ALMOND...BRYSON CITY...LUADA...WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...
WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO...COVE CREEK...ASHEVILLE...
ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE...SYLVA...
FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS...WOLF MOUNTAIN...
CASHIERS...PATTERSON...KINGS CREEK...LENOIR...SAWMILLS...
GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...MORGANTON...PLEASANT GROVE...
VALDESE...ASHFORD...SUGAR HILL...WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...MARION...
NEBO...DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...GLENWOOD
315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7
PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN NORTH
  CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND
  MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE
  SNOW ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES EARLY SATURDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS BY CALLING THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A
MESSAGE WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE SPECIFIC LOCATION WHERE IT
OCCURRED. YOU CAN ALSO POST YOUR REPORT TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG FACEBOOK OR TWEET YOUR REPORT
USING HASHTAG NWSGSP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

CDG

Nice but odd areas. I figured Transylvania and Henderson would be included in that, with this setup.

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1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Nice but odd areas. I figured Transylvania and Henderson would be included in that, with this setup.

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...

.A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES SATURDAY MORNING.

GAZ010-017-NCZ036-037-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-507>510-
SCZ001>003-005>009-012>014-060400-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.170107T0000Z-170107T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0001.170107T0000Z-170107T1800Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...HOLLYWOOD...
STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...FARMINGTON...FORK CHURCH...
MOCKSVILLE...ADVANCE...HICKORY...NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...
SALISBURY...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN...LITTLE RIVER...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...
ETOWAH...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...CROUSE...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...TRINITY...
INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...
SPINDALE...SALUDA...TRYON...COLUMBUS...MILL SPRING...
MOUNTAIN REST...WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...PUMPKINTOWN...
TIGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE...CLEVELAND...EASLEY...DACUSVILLE...
CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...FORK SHOALS...
SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...CATAWBA...
ROCK HILL...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION...MONARCH MILLS...CHESTER...
CORNWELL...GREAT FALLS
315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7
PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...FOOTHILLS AND
  PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
  CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND
  MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE
  SNOW ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES EARLY SATURDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
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Just now, NavarreDon said:

Winter Storm Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS...

.A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE TRAVEL
DIFFICULTIES SATURDAY MORNING.

GAZ010-017-NCZ036-037-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-507>510-
SCZ001>003-005>009-012>014-060400-
/O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.170107T0000Z-170107T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0001.170107T0000Z-170107T1800Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN...
MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...HOLLYWOOD...
STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...FARMINGTON...FORK CHURCH...
MOCKSVILLE...ADVANCE...HICKORY...NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS...
SALISBURY...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN...LITTLE RIVER...
HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...
ETOWAH...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...CROUSE...
GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...TRINITY...
INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...
SPINDALE...SALUDA...TRYON...COLUMBUS...MILL SPRING...
MOUNTAIN REST...WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...PUMPKINTOWN...
TIGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE...CLEVELAND...EASLEY...DACUSVILLE...
CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...FORK SHOALS...
SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...CATAWBA...
ROCK HILL...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION...MONARCH MILLS...CHESTER...
CORNWELL...GREAT FALLS
315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7
PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...FOOTHILLS AND
  PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH
  CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL
  CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.

* IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND
  MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE
  SNOW ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES EARLY SATURDAY
  MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

Thank you! That makes sense. I'm on my phone, not used to seeing GSP include those regions in with the upstate.

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2 hours ago, HurricaneTracker said:

Well, 12Z Euro is a huge miss for the mountains.  Devastating run if you like/want snow.

So, the morning rundown has the Euro, CMC, RGEM, and NAM all with 1-2" for the mountains.  GFS sits alone at 3-6" with greater amounts.  Prudent call is to go with the majority of the models.

I am revising my AVL forecast from 1-3" down to 1-2", and that may be generous.

 

HT, is it safe to say now that the NAM has trended with the GFS and Ukie now?

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