FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 apparently the UK had the low right off the coast, that ones gonna look good for WNC I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS looked to show close to 20 hours of snow for WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Probably a dumb question, but with a track like we're seeing, seems like there would be a nice period of flow snow as the low departs especially with such a cold air mass rushing in. Most are calling for an abrupt end Sat morning. Why? Don't want to interrupt the disco though. Just thinking out loud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoJoe said: Probably a dumb question, but with a track like we're seeing, seems like there would be a nice period of flow snow as the low departs especially with such a cold air mass rushing in. Most are calling for an abrupt end Sat morning. Why? Don't want to interrupt the disco though. Just thinking out loud. Because a massive 1043 high comes in very soon thereafter with strong cold (and dry) advection. Just no moisture to work with for post storm NWFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The ukie has even more qpf for us than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 yes hoping we at least get 3-4 inches around Asheville, lots better than 1, was thinking this would still tick nw some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 25 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: The ukie has even more qpf for us than the gfs. Very nice! Guys great trends today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Also I would not worry about whether we get a watch or advisory. The thing is a 2 to 4 or even 1 to 3 is a safe bet currently. I would go conservative if I was the NWS currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Didn't know NWS did this. Might be able to see a little of what they are thinking after the euro and before their afternoon update. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 318 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017 ...WINTER WEATHER SOCIAL MEDIA QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION TO BE HELD THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 2 TO 3 PM EST... The National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg South Carolina office will be holding a social media question and answer session on Twitter and Facebook Thursday, January 5 from 2 to 3 pm EST. During that hour, we will attempt to answer as many of your questions as possible about the upcoming winter weather across our region. Please tweet your questions or comments to @NWSGSP or post or message us on our U.S. National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well GFS says 5", Euro gives out token flakes here in WNC. I guess the middle would be 1"-3" ha. Who knows with this system, it all depends on how much precip blossoms over N AL & N GA tomorrow. That's what I will be watching.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well, 12Z Euro is a huge miss for the mountains. Devastating run if you like/want snow. So, the morning rundown has the Euro, CMC, RGEM, and NAM all with 1-2" for the mountains. GFS sits alone at 3-6" with greater amounts. Prudent call is to go with the majority of the models. I am revising my AVL forecast from 1-3" down to 1-2", and that may be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Well, 12Z Euro is a huge miss for the mountains. Devastating run if you like/want snow. So, the morning rundown has the Euro, CMC, RGEM, and NAM all with 1-2" for the mountains. GFS sits alone at 3-6" with greater amounts. Prudent call is to go with the majority of the models. I am revising my AVL forecast from 1-3" down to 1-2", and that may be generous. What about the UK? The Euro LP actually came NW about 50-100 miles. The surface maps look funky based off the 500mb vort with the forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 that was a concerning to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: What about the UK? The Euro LP actually came NW about 50-100 miles. The surface maps look funky based off the 500mb vort with the forcing. Funky or not...the consensus of models are showing a very nearly similar picture. Gotta side with the majority of models which have a snow-hole over the mountains, rather than the GFS, which is now the wettest of all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Funky or not...the consensus of models are showing a very nearly similar picture. Gotta side with the majority of models which have a snow-hole over the mountains, rather than the GFS, which is now the wettest of all the models. UK has been the most consistent model of them all from 7 days out. Now the GFS is lining up with it. I like consistency. Euro hasn't known whether it's coming or going this whole storm tracking time. It definitely has lost its "King" status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob2016 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hi all just sitting watching you all post,and just looked at one maps and saw blue over wilkesboro was light snow I did see some flurry and snow flake started falling,now that was a little early and it's cold out there too as well,tjeynsay temperature suppose to be in 40's but now it's down in upper 30's so just watching what does later tonight or whatever happens,first I hear dry then rain then snow I thought oh well,they always say this and to make them look good on tv for the paycheck,but I am sure snow will fall it was already showing up so I will sit back and watch it all happen once it starts to kick in, stay warm guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: Gotta side with the majority of models which have a snow-hole over the mountains, rather than the GFS, which is now the wettest of all the models. As a met, it must be hard to choose whether you're going to side with majority or consistency. Having both must be nice. Ha! The Ukie and GFS have consistency, the Euro, CMC, RGEM and NAM have the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: As a met, it must be hard to choose whether you're going to side with majority or consistency. Having both must be nice. Ha! The Ukie and GFS have consistency, the Euro, CMC, RGEM and NAM have the majority. Oh man, this is an absolute nightmare forecast to make. The system does seem to have sped up a bit, now starting in the mountains between 18Z and 22Z Friday. This should also factor in to lower amounts since the system will be departing faster than originally thought too. Very hard to go against majority or consistency, but a choice must be made. I like consistency...I'm just afraid it might be consistently wrong. So, as a forecaster, do you go with lower amounts (and then have a bigger snow event verify), or do you go with higher amounts (and have a lower amount verify)? My personal preference is to shoot low and anything else is a "bonus" beyond that. Thus, 1-2" is my forecast for now for AVL and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hard to ignore the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Hard to ignore the euro. Yep it's hard to ignore how sucky it's been lately. Never seen it be as bad as it has been of late. Just so inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yep it's hard to ignore how sucky it's been lately. Never seen it be as bad as it has been of late. Just so inconsistent. Lol yeah that too. Like tracker said low ball it and bust high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 With the euro look forward to maybe an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Met check out the new map GSP just put out for most likely snowfall amount. Doubled for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Met check out the new map GSP just put out for most likely snowfall amount. Doubled for my area. On the phone, can you copy and paste it here for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Met check out the new map GSP just put out for most likely snowfall amount. Doubled for my area. Post it bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 http://www.weather.gov/gsp/winter then click on the middle graph. Most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I wonder if they took account of the EURO showing nothing near those amounts... Seems like they are siding with the GFS unlike WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: I wonder if they took account of the EURO showing nothing near those amounts... Seems like they are siding with the GFS unlike WPC I think on their disco yesterday they said they were siding with the GFS. Someone correct me if I am wrong. I thought I remember seeing that posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I have to think that if the GEFS didn't agree with the OP (in fact ensembles as high or higher totals here) then they wouldn't have went with GFS. Don't forget, UK is solely in GFS camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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