Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Post the map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 It's systems like these that remind me why model watching is so addicting. Here we are back close to what the GFS was showing 3-4 days ago. Myself and others have harped on the NW trend and we have watched it commence and we are just a little over a day away. It's crazy to see it happen even when you think it's going to happen and it may not be done yet!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z GFS from Weather Bell Mountains looking better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Things are definitely looking up for areas along the escarpment and it the NW trend continues with the Euro I expect Winter Storm Watches to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 One MAJOR positive is both the GFS and Nam have the low stronger than previous runs in the beginning. the GFS was a lot less positive, and if we can get a neutral or negative tilt going, we'll really be in business. Still a lot that can happen. Watch the euro go south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Boyer just give update on Twitter..Said the 12Z snow totals were wrong and that he would not be changing his forecast.Said GFS is the outlier.He's still says 1-3" area wide..Starnge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said: It's systems like these that remind me why model watching is so addicting. Here we are back close to what the GFS was showing 3-4 days ago. Myself and others have harped on the NW trend and we have watched it commence and we are just a little over a day away. It's crazy to see it happen even when you think it's going to happen and it may not be done yet! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk There where some deniers about the NW trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Boyer just give update on Twitter..Said the 12Z snow totals were wrong and that he would not be changing his forecast.Said GFS is the outlier.He's still says 1-3" area wide..Starnge Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 There where some deniers about the NW trend Many of which were in the sweet spot at the time. I do hate to see a lot of the folks further to the south get their hopes up on this one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, AirNelson39 said: Many of which were in the sweet spot at the time. I do hate to see a lot of the folks further to the south get their hopes up on this one. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I don't. They called us whiners for us not getting our fair share and bringing it up about the NW trend. well...some did. I feel bad for the others, sort of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Boyer just give update on Twitter..Said the 12Z snow totals were wrong and that he would not be changing his forecast.Said GFS is the outlier.He's still says 1-3" area wide..Starnge It may be the outlier but it's the only that's been remotely consistent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I don't. They called us whiners for us not getting our fair share and bringing it up about the NW trend. well...some did. I feel bad for the others, sort of.Yeah I don't feel sorry for those kind of people but for the people who weren't like thatSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, wncsnow said: Most models are showing some type of precip minimum in the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, think this may be overdone considering the setup but places from Rutherfordton to Lenoir to Wilkesboro may be the biggest losers in this storm unless the NW trend continues. I can speak for Rutherford. The county would be split in half with the lower section getting the benefit of the WSW flow as the system enters. It will all depend on the fetch as it enters this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Yeah i would like to see a widespread snow for everyone. A lot have got shafted recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: 12z GFS from Weather Bell Mountains looking better... Thanks for posting these! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Boyer just give update on Twitter..Said the 12Z snow totals were wrong and that he would not be changing his forecast.Said GFS is the outlier.He's still says 1-3" area wide..StarngeHe makes localyokeland I look really good sometimes. Hope he sticks around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 things that can happen to increase our snowfall 1. low remains stronger as it enters gulf which will help with number two. 2. the storm turns negative to allow greatly enhanced moisture transport into our region. 3. NW trend. 3 things that can happen to screw someone 1. dryslot 2. low weakens more than the midday models shows which causes a more suppressed solution similar to the 0z euro. 3. mountains and downsloping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hvward said: He makes me and localyokel look really good sometimes. Hope he sticks around I don't think he even looked at the 6Z ..He said this is the first time GFS has shown anything like these totals..Met ,12 Z shows you with well over a foot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Also I do have a question. Why is the snow tonight barely making it over into NC? Not usual for it to stop before hitting the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Jason and I have had some discussions in the past he gets easily offended and doesnt like discussing models or his forecasts if they are wrong. I honestly think some TV mets are more concerned about looking good on TV than their actual forecasts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, Hvward said: He makes localyokeland I look really good sometimes. Hope he sticks around Bring back the days of Bob Caldwell! Lick your finger, stick it in the air, read the Laurel leaves and listen for the Bobwhite call. Give us a real forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: Boyer just give update on Twitter..Said the 12Z snow totals were wrong and that he would not be changing his forecast.Said GFS is the outlier.He's still says 1-3" area wide..Starnge I respect boyer, hes conservative. I cant blame him either. Im not feeling to confident here along the escarpment due to down sloping lee side dry slotting ect. Ive seen rutherforton cash in in these setups a few times. Good luck strong!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 17 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: It may be the outlier but it's the only that's been remotely consistent! I don't think the GFS is the outlier either, given it's run-to-run consistency. The NAM is all over the place, the RGEM is all over the place, and the 12Z CMC went SOUTH. And the German model is an unknown so just something pretty to look at. I would love to wrap up the GFS and take it home, call 4-7" for AVL and 7-10" for all surrounding mountains (mostly driven by high snow:water ratios). But but but, since the 00Z Euro (and its EPS) are definitely not yet on board, there is still enough concern for pause. If the 12Z Euro doesn't join the GFS party, then we will have no choice but to cut into the amounts of the GFS. Another few hours and we will know what to do. Sadly (or not, depending on how you look at it), my original call yesterday morning of 1-3" may yet happen. Hoping to revise that later today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, HurricaneTracker said: I don't think the GFS is the outlier either, given it's run-to-run consistency. The NAM is all over the place, the RGEM is all over the place, and the 12Z CMC went SOUTH. And the German model is an unknown so just something pretty to look at. I would love to wrap up the GFS and take it home, call 4-7" for AVL and 7-10" for all surrounding mountains (mostly driven by high snow:water ratios). But but but, since the 00Z Euro (and its EPS) are definitely not yet on board, there is still enough concern for pause. If the 12Z Euro doesn't join the GFS party, then we will have no choice but to cut into the amounts of the GFS. Another few hours and we will know what to do. Sadly (or not, depending on how you look at it), my original call yesterday morning of 1-3" may yet happen. Hoping to revise that later today! I meant the outlier in terms of totals for WNC. It's definitely been the most consistent. What do you feel is the issue with the Euro's totals for WNC right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Sucks to see the Lee side getting robbed. Surry and Wilkes county would be getting 1-2 inches tops, while 10 miles to the east and west of both counties, they would real in at least half foot totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Meteorhobbyist said: Sucks to see the Lee side getting robbed. Surry and Wilkes county would be getting 1-2 inches tops, while 10 miles to the east and west of both counties, they would real in at least half foot totals. If the NW trend were to continue just a little more, the foothills would also be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 14 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I meant the outlier in terms of totals for WNC. It's definitely been the most consistent. What do you feel is the issue with the Euro's totals for WNC right now? Euro totals are currently 1/3 of the amount from the GFS. No agreement on throwback of moisture into the cold air. CMC is only 1" of snow for the I-40 corridor of WNC. These figures are disconcerting...mostly because they are stubborn in their own solutions. The most the Euro has shown for AVL all week is 5" and that was a few days ago. Every run since has been lower and lower...and now these lower values have EPS support, which has traditionally been a very good tool to rely on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The EPS mean has actually been increasing for AVL each run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: The EPS mean has actually been increasing for AVL each run... True...but even then we went from 1" to 2", and now to 3". Still very short of GFS amounts (and frankly, even the GEFS means are higher too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Yea I think 3-4 inches is a pretty good forecast for AVL area, more south of town and less in the favored dryer areas to the NW of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.