Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 19 minutes ago, westmc9th said: The models pull us in and then push us away. Yesterday and last night was a roller coaster of trends. Almost go time anyway. Won't be in Boone for this one. Still hoping my other locale just outside AVL in the foothills can get at least an inch or two! Yeah this mornings rUn was about like yesterday's18z run. Much improved over 00z. We should expect this little back and forth. Not a bad run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Actually this is an even better run than the 18z. I hope the GFS has its crap together. The NAM does support this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Also I don't blame GSP for not issuing anything for run yet. We are on a tight gradient here in the mountains. If the system is fast and more south we pay dearly. If it is slow and just a smudge slow then we actually have a great chance of seeing some significant totals. Still very early. The first wave is looking weak also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Also surprised to see some radar returns in East TN. could see something along the boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Also its nice and cold. Current temp is 19 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timothy Clyde Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 I'm okay with missing the heavy snow but I am a bit jealous of their low temps down east. Weather.com already has Raleigh colder than Boone and I think it will go even colder and smash records. Some of the numbers I'm seeing down there rarely happen even after mountain snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Northwest trend commenced this morning with 6z GFS and 6z NAM. I have a feeling it's not done yet with the NW adjustment. I would stay on alert from just south of Asheville to Southwest/West Central Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, Timothy Clyde said: I'm okay with missing the heavy snow but I am a bit jealous of their low temps down east. Weather.com already has Raleigh colder than Boone and I think it will go even colder and smash records. Some of the numbers I'm seeing down there rarely happen even after mountain snowfall. I'm not okay with that . So it's going to snow more than the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Winter storm watch for me hope to hit the high end of accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Winter storm watch for me hope to hit the high end of accumulation. Hope it works out for you; looking like here in the desert valley we will not get that much but it will still be nice to see; getting near game time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Morning all!, It looks like a good time for the obligatory "quit hanging on every model run" quote for some. We all want to be in the sweet spot for the white stuff. You guys live in the best place in the deep south for snow.....rejoice! Looking at the model runs and climo and some previous events these are my thoughts. The SE portion of the Mnts are going to jackpot for this system. I think 6+" is a good bet. Higher elevations of the Central Mnts could get in on this action. I think GSP with a general 2-4" is spot on. The thing to remember is the models are trying to predict mother nature and no one or thing can do that. When I lived in Asheville as much as I loved the snow this part "the chase" became my favorite part of the systems we had. So my advice is to enjoy the ride & realize there are going to be winners and losers! Remember though you guys have more opportunity than anyone in the Southeastern forum. Good luck to you all and I hope everyone cashes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Let's go ICON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 This is why we love living in the mountains! Lots of uncertainty still. Euro 0z EPS has a 3" snowfall avg compared to the OP that shows 1.5". Euro EPS and OP still struggling so I tend to side with a GFS type solution that has better ensemble support. Many EPS members show a GFS like solution. Hang on this is one is going to be interesting to watch unfold. Surprises are in store I believe. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Sref close to 4 here now up about 2 inches from previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Hey guys don't you think we're somewhere in the 3-5 inch range around wnc, surprised we're not in the wsw area, lots of guidance coming in with some nw movements every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, fritschy said: Hey guys don't you think we're somewhere in the 3-5 inch range around wnc, surprised we're not in the wsw area, lots of guidance coming in with some nw movements every run This was what GSP said in last nights disco. Unless there is some drastic change in the midday model runs I suspect you'll se additional Mnt counties added. Accums were based on WPC QPF and snow ratios, and the use of the Bourgouin energy-area technique to determine the transition from rain to snow. This produces 3 to 4 inches in the 00z to 12z Sat timeframe, which meets warning criteria in our Piedmont zones. With confidence expected only to increase from now to the next shift, we went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the SC/GA zones, plus the southern tier of NC zones from Transylvania east. The mountains and NW Foothills/Piedmont will see snow, but confidence is not as high up there given the possibility that the low track will shift slightly further south; additionally the mountain criteria are 4 inches in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said: This was what GSP said in last nights disco. Unless there is some drastic change in the midday model runs I suspect you'll se additional Mnt counties added. Accums were based on WPC QPF and snow ratios, and the use of the Bourgouin energy-area technique to determine the transition from rain to snow. This produces 3 to 4 inches in the 00z to 12z Sat timeframe, which meets warning criteria in our Piedmont zones. With confidence expected only to increase from now to the next shift, we went ahead and issued a Winter Storm Watch for the SC/GA zones, plus the southern tier of NC zones from Transylvania east. The mountains and NW Foothills/Piedmont will see snow, but confidence is not as high up there given the possibility that the low track will shift slightly further south; additionally the mountain criteria are 4 inches in 12 hours. Thanks Don, good hearing from you from sunny Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Temps rose almost 14 degrees overnight. Sitting at a balmy 30 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Not sure what to believe in the modeling right now... thought we would have a much clearer picture at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Morning update from GSP: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 930 AM, Per sat pix and obs, mid and high clouds are spreading in across the area and should cover most of the area today, with possibly some thinning from time to time. Temps will be slow to climb today from the low start this morning. Still, the current forecast already had these trends in place, so only minor changes needed there. Have increased the sky cover though to account for current and expected conditions. Radar showing some echoes off to our west, but it looks like this is mainly clouds and/or virga with little to no surface precip reports. Therefore, current forecast with light rain or snow moving into the TN border area late afternoon or early evening with little to no accums still on track. Otherwise, looks like we have a little bit more than 24 hours of relative calm before the weather starts to get really interesting around the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. The upper flow should continue to slowly back around to something more southwesterly in response to gradual height falls over the Plains/Midwest. A notable feature is a weak wave moving up the OH River Valley today/tonight coincident with a patch of upper divergence in the left exit region of a strong upper jet. This forcing pushes an area of light precip past our region to the north, which would be in the form of snow. Some of the guidance brings a chance of snow into the NC mountains during the tonight period. Current thinking is that amounts will not be significant enough for an advisory, and the chance is also not high enough to entertain an advisory. This could still become a problem given the expected temps in the mid/upper 20s, so we will monitor the development of this potential pre-event. Otherwise, weak high pressure moving past today will keep the weather cool and quiet, with increasing/thickening clouds east of mtns. Temps will top out a bit below normal, and then tonight should be close to normal again with thickening cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 940 AM EST Thursday: Given latest model trends favoring northern expansion of warning level snowfall accumulations, opted to go ahead and include the Northwest Piedmont of Western NC in the Winter Storm Watch. Further adjustments may be needed/made with the afternoon fcst package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Most models are showing some type of precip minimum in the immediate lee of the Blue Ridge, think this may be overdone considering the setup but places from Rutherfordton to Lenoir to Wilkesboro may be the biggest losers in this storm unless the NW trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 seems when I come back to read up on the storm there is always talk on how the models have ticked nw with the storm, as much as it has ticked nw I would have thought some of the good snows would be into wnc by now with the forecasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 5, 2017 Author Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 hour ago, SnoJoe said: Temps rose almost 14 degrees overnight. Sitting at a balmy 30 now. Hopefully with start back downward soon... amazing the power that warm air can have at times ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Really liking the trough axis that the 12z GFS shows. It will dump in WNC if that solution ends up being correct.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Lol guyes this is the way winter storms are in the south. Nothing new for our area as a whole especially with this setup. This is a high bust potential on both ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 WNC winners 12Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z GFS continues the positive trends for us. Is the minimum of snow on the lee side due to expected NWFS in the higher elevations or something on the model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowbird1230 said: WNC winners 12Z GFS Post the map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS up to a foot IMBY. If this trend continues I'll be making yearly average on Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z GFS continues the positive trends for us. Is the minimum of snow on the lee side due to expected NWFS in the higher elevations or something on the model?That is the dreaded dry slot feature trying to show up. May not be as pronounced as some models show but it will pop up over someone. Downtown Asheville and just North sometimes dry slot a tad during these type events as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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