snowbird1230 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 The Eruo giveth and the Eruo taketh..On to next storm..If there is one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Still got a couple more days of model runs to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Anybody now what Robert (wxsouth) take is on this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rainforrest said: Still got a couple more days of model runs to watch. With the system now fully onshore and having been sampled by the raob network, I would not expect much in the way of significant changes from the models. Blend of the GFS/Euro is probably the best approach right now since they seem to be very (very) consistent on their tracks, with the general less amounts in the mountains and much more heavy snow Raleigh east. This could be the event where Atlanta and Columbia get more snow than Asheville and Boone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Here in the south I've learned to never underestimate the climo NW trend within 48 hours. It's burned me too many times and it's made me a believer. Hopefully that will help us this time instead of being on the wrong side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 You SW mountain folk enjoy this one. Not very confident for much here in Boone. Maybe a token inch or two. Gonna be cold though. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Think yall and myself in SVA are in trouble if we are expecting more than a couple inches.. EPS will be interesting but looks like 85 corridor and south will do the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Here in the south I've learned to never underestimate the climo NW trend within 48 hours. It's burned me too many times and it's made me a believer. Hopefully that will help us this time instead of being on the wrong side of it. I remember quite a few NW trends within 48 hours after the waves have been sampled. On the other hand, we could absolutely be grasping at straws at this point. However, it's still only Wednesday. I'm not ready to call this one quits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, wncsnow said: Think yall and myself in SVA are in trouble if we are expecting more than a couple inches.. EPS will be interesting but looks like 85 corridor and south will do the best I'd take a couple inches at this point. I wouldn't expect more than some flakes falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_WX10 said: I'd take a couple inches at this point. I wouldn't expect more than some flakes falling I think you will get more than that at least... A few inches if you can just get a little moisture ratios should be pretty high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Hang in there fellas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 17 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: You SW mountain folk enjoy this one. Not very confident for much here in Boone. Maybe a token inch or two. Gonna be cold though. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk We might get a few inches here. Really pulling for the gfs and maybe rainforest and I can get a warning criteria event out of this. Unfortunately this looks like yet another eastern nc storm. They will continue to exceed climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Hang in there fellas. Yep still early in the game. Rather have the models showing what they are now versus game time. Still believe it will turn out good for the mountains. Hopefully everyone will cash in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 There are still a lot of cards on the table yet. I'm in the worst spot for this storm right now but I've still got hope. I'm giving it until the 0z runs tonight to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Wow. That de-escalated quickly. No worries people. We'll have other chances in the next few weeks. I am glad to see some cooler temps coming in though. Just got back from skiing Wolf and the conditions were some of the worst I have ever seen this time of year. Bad snow, no terrain, even the employees are disgusted and in a foul mood. Maybe all the resorts can make some headway the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoJoe said: Wow. That de-escalated quickly. No worries people. We'll have other chances in the next few weeks. I am glad to see some cooler temps coming in though. Just got back from skiing Wolf and the conditions were some of the worst I have ever seen this time of year. Bad snow, no terrain, even the employees are disgusted and in a foul mood. Maybe all the resorts can make some headway the next few days. I wouldn't be hanging it up quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Wow. That de-escalated quickly. No worries people. We'll have other chances in the next few weeks. I am glad to see some cooler temps coming in though. Just got back from skiing Wolf and the conditions were some of the worst I have ever seen this time of year. Bad snow, no terrain, even the employees are disgusted and in a foul mood. Maybe all the resorts can make some headway the next few days. Sugar didn't have 5 of their best slopes open when I went last week. It's miserable considering skiing is my favorite hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 NAM looks worlds better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: NAM looks worlds better Just not really enough moisture. I don't see how were having that big of an issue. But perfect track though for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Just not really enough moisture. I don't see how were having that big of an issue. But perfect track though for most of us. Agreed and maybe that adjusts closer to game time but we basically went from 0 to 2-3 that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: NAM looks worlds better Yeah it did. As Moto stated there is still a lot to iron out. There is a lot of spread in the ensembles also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 It's interesting that they issued a WWA for TN and KY for that first wave. I would think we would be in an advisory also for a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 25 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Just not really enough moisture. I don't see how were having that big of an issue. But perfect track though for most of us. I believe it was deltadog that said the NAM has been having troubles with precip totals this winter. Cheezenado essentially said the same thing in that don't look at the details right now with the NAM but rather the trend. The trend was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I believe it was deltadog that said the NAM has been having troubles with moisture this winter. Cheezenado essentially said the same thing in that don't look at the details right now with the NAM but rather the trend. The trend was good. Yeah cheez ain't buying that sparce of a look. Me neither. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 I know it's TWC but what are they seeing here? Are they putting that much stock in the first wave? This was only posted on their Twitter 15 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I know it's TWC but what are they seeing here? Are they putting that much stock in the first wave? This was only posted on their Twitter 15 minutes ago. I'm telling you. Iv been saying for a few days for us don't sleep on that first wave. Just dont. We will have great trajectory also to enhance the upslope affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I know it's TWC but what are they seeing here? Are they putting that much stock in the first wave? This was only posted on their Twitter 15 minutes ago. Well there is not actually any amounts on here, and just based on the models, this actually isn't too out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: Well there is not actually any amounts on here, and just based on the models, this actually isn't too out of the question. It's an insinuation of the totals based on precip rates it appears. It surely isn't skimpy on the mountains. Just a little odd given the models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: It's an insinuation of the totals based on precip rates it appears. It surely isn't skimpy on the mountains. Just a little odd given the models today. We'll the purples down towards asheville make sense with them getting the first wave and a good chunk of the second. It wouldn't surprise me if the northern counties did well with the first band. That's just my thinking anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 4, 2017 Share Posted January 4, 2017 From Grit on the latest GFS run: At 54 wave is sharper, going to be more precip farther north, but it's only a tick warmer From DopplerWx: precip more expansive nw thru 57 it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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