Hvward Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 the bolded was what caused my little reaction though I do understand your point. NWS in areas already doubled the chance of snow just because of one OP Euro run, and was just making sure we didn't fall into the trap of over hyping one run.Sorry bud didn't mean to cause any confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 At work, it's hard to look on my phone but how did the NAM look this morning in that regard?NAM continues to trend to less interaction with the northern stream. The 12z is much more sheared compared to the 0z and so they system is less strung out. Here is the 0zCompared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Hvward said: NAM continues to trend to less interaction with the northern stream. The 12z is much more sheared compared to the 0z and so they system is less strung out. Here is the 0z Compared to 12z I am liking the trend of less interaction. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 hour ago, AsheCounty48 said: the bolded was what caused my little reaction though I do understand your point. NWS in areas already doubled the chance of snow just because of one OP Euro run, and was just making sure we didn't fall into the trap of over hyping one run. The CMC trended much better too. There where multiple models that trended better in out favor including the GFS para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 I talked about this lady night with the models bouncing back and forth. Snowgoose thoughtit would be like that too. I think it's a good thing the gfs caved last night so we can start to see a middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Lol this run completely takes out the northern mountains and foothills altogether. The first wave might be the one we need to key in on as it looks better and better for us each run over the 2nd wave. I do think the gfs will move back north but probably not today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol this run completely takes out the northern mountains and foothills altogether. The first wave might be the one we need to key in on as it looks better and better for us each run over the 2nd wave. I do think the gfs will move back north but probably not today. The GFS is an on island it appears, not much different than it was last January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: The GFS is an on island it appears, not much different than it was last January. Yeah its going from one extreme to another. No blocking up north really. It will move further north later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Yeah its going from one extreme to another. No blocking up north really. It will move further north later. It'll cave is my guess. I posted in the storm thread after another poster asked but it appears to have been deleted, however the 12z GFS on 18Jan2016 didn't have hardly any accumulating snow for the 22nd system that gave us over a foot. It was well north into Virginia and Maryland. Remember this? We'll see if it verifies after the upgrade this summer but in the past, it has struggled with these type of systems and appears to be doing the same here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 6 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: It'll cave is my guess. I posted in the storm thread after another poster asked but it appears to have been deleted, however the 12z GFS on 18Jan2016 didn't have hardly any accumulating snow for the 22nd system that gave us over a foot. It was well north into Virginia and Maryland. Remember this? We'll see if it verifies after the upgrade this summer but in the past, it has struggled with these type of systems and appears to be doing the same here as well. Very good catch! Still a LOT of time from now and the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Very good catch! Still a LOT of time from now and the weekend. I love going back and reading those old threads when I find myself struggling where to look and what to trust in terms of guidance. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/47661-jan-22-23-east-coast-storm-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 It doesn't mean much but I've had a gut feeling from the get-go that this was a southern/eastern event. Still hoping I'll be proven wrong. The AO tanking mid month does give me some hope for the future though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, westmc9th said: It doesn't mean much but I've had a gut feeling from the get-go that this was a southern/eastern event. Still hoping I'll be proven wrong. The AO tanking mid month does give me some hope for the future though Man the weeklies look awsome from end of the month through the first of February. We will not jackpot but I think we can see a decent event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I love going back and reading those old threads when I find myself struggling where to look and what to trust in terms of guidance. https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/47661-jan-22-23-east-coast-storm-discussion/ Yeah everyone is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 My thoughts on the basics for our region as of now. Euro- meh GFS- meh CMC - meh UK- pretty, but too far north and west to like it this far out. CMC- who knows what it's doing. Nam- potential GEFS- too far south for us EPS- too much interaction for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Lol the storm thread is entertaining to read. We will get seveal different looks. Can't hang your hat on one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 52 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol the storm thread is entertaining to read. We will get seveal different looks. Can't hang your hat on one run. The amount of posts that are being hidden is hilarious. The good news...well I guess it's good, is we're figuring out the specifics of what needs to happen for a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: The amount of posts that are being hidden is hilarious. The good news...well I guess it's good, is we're figuring out the specifics of what needs to happen for a good storm. Lol we are. I believe we still have some big changes to go once the system gets on land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Lol we are. I believe we still have some big changes to go once the system gets on land. Tonight through tomorrow is going to be the most stressful part as the storm nears/ gets over land. I think by tomorrow night we're gonna know if we're going to have anything or not. Then after that is just details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Tonight through tomorrow is going to be the most stressful part as the storm nears/ gets over land. I think by tomorrow night we're gonna know if we're going to have anything or not. Then after that is just details. I really don't know. We may see some weird things about 48 hours before go time shoot even 24 hours before go time. I will tell you the gfs has been having issues with storms on the east coast recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I really don't know. We may see some weird things about 48 hours before go time shoot even 24 hours before go time. I will tell you the gfs has been having issues with storms on the east coast recently. I don't think it will last much longer. Virtually all the differences between the runs are how much interaction the s/w has with the upper jet. Once we figure that out it becomes a lot more accurate for all models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: I don't think it will last much longer. Virtually all the differences between the runs are how much interaction the s/w has with the upper jet. Once we figure that out it becomes a lot more accurate for all models This is the SE and modeling a winter storm here is anything but accurate. Iv seen several models bust bad on both ends around the SE. Nothing is simple around here unless we just don't have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Well GSP now putting out accumulations in forecast discussion..1-3 inches for the mountains...Not very exciting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 1-3 inches isnt bad.. especially considering most places havent had more than a dusting all winter long.. This thing could definitely trend better for you guys in the long run... Climo usually wins out and the mtns get theres.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 The "meh" 12z Euro run still spits out 4-5" for the Boone area with 15+:1 ratios. Considering we've only seen an inch so far that would be a nice improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Choosing to stay optimistic on this storm. We remain days away from go-time, and there is zero true consistency from the models. We would be selling ourselves short by taking some of the current runs so literally. Climo favors our area for sure, and I get a weird feeling that if the storm tracks northward and we can throw away the suppressed idea, it will track close to the coast and we will get ours. Also, btw I've been reading off and on for close to 4 years now and finally decided to hop on board. I've always enjoyed some of the analysis and it's too exciting to not join the discussion this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 14 minutes ago, Tyler Penland said: The "meh" 12z Euro run still spits out 4-5" for the Boone area with 15+:1 ratios. Considering we've only seen an inch so far that would be a nice improvement. Yea, not sure we're going to see a big storm or not, but I think it will be hard to walk away without a couple of inches. 9 minutes ago, Meteorhobbyist said: Choosing to stay optimistic on this storm. We remain days away from go-time, and there is zero true consistency from the models. We would be selling ourselves short by taking some of the current runs so literally. Climo favors our area for sure, and I get a weird feeling that if the storm tracks northward and we can throw away the suppressed idea, it will track close to the coast and we will get ours. Also, btw I've been reading off and on for close to 4 years now and finally decided to hop on board. I've always enjoyed some of the analysis and it's too exciting to not join the discussion this time of year. Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Man the weeklies look awsome from end of the month through the first of February. We will not jackpot but I think we can see a decent event. Hey Met we are due a jackpot. It has been way too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 20 minutes ago, PisgahNCWeather said: Hey Met we are due a jackpot. It has been way too long. Too be fair we had a jackpot storm last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: Too be fair we had a jackpot storm last year... I know. It's just the weather we have had ever since then. Time to put an end to this boring stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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