FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 24 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: This is a post from Jonathan on the 21st. That's 8 days ago from the time this is suppose to begin. Miss it by a day and a half but I swear the GSF has been a lot better lately. The one time I didn't believe a chance of snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 16 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah Boone is beautiful. Shoot most of WNC is beautiful. Yeah, but down deep I think we all know Yancey Co. is the sweet spot. But you're right the rest of WNC is pretty decent. BTW, it's 38.3 degrees... at over 4000'..... at 10pm..... on Dec. 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, oconeexman said: One more and I will quit cluttering up yalls thread. Moved to Oconee from Florida in 77 and got spoiled as a kid. We had good snows every winter it seemed into the early 80's. Then again late 80's and after that its been less and less. Seeing Union, Gaffney and Columbia get more than up here consistently which baffles me. But the one constant has almost always been NC mountains get theres every year. I enjoy looking at yalls pictures and watching webcams! Hopefully we will be posting some pics Friday morning of some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: Yeah, but down deep I think we all know Yancey Co. is the sweet spot. But you're right the rest of WNC is pretty decent. BTW, it's 38.3 degrees... at over 4000'..... at 10pm..... on Dec. 27. Lol well Joe Haywood county is damn beautiful bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol well Joe Haywood county is damn beautiful bro! I agree! Just thank God we don't live in Ashe County ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: I agree! Just thank God we don't live in Ashe County ! Lol man I heard Ashe County is awful! No snow and little mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol man I heard Ashe County is awful! No snow and little mountains. I read on facebook where they had a town festival and nobody showed up because they didn't know where to go. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 10 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: I read on facebook where they had a town festival and nobody showed up because they didn't know where to go. Sad. Lol!!!!!!!! I heard it was a one block town filled with a liquor store and a bait shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 23 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: I agree! Just thank God we don't live in Ashe County ! 13 minutes ago, SnoJoe said: I read on facebook where they had a town festival and nobody showed up because they didn't know where to go. Sad. 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Lol!!!!!!!! I heard it was a one block town filled with a liquor store and a bait shop. 19 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol man I heard Ashe County is awful! No snow and little mountains. Man...ya'll itching to start a war tonight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Also, 0z a mirror image through 66 hours of the 18z and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Man...ya'll itching to start a war tonight ? Lol all in good fun bro! Good news the 00Z is still showing the goods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: Lol all in good fun bro! Good news the 00Z is still showing the goods! No worries lol. got a chuckle out of it since it was the first thing I saw finally getting home from the bar. good news with the 0z run is I don't think we need to spend much more time looking at Thursdays event, and instead focus on the mid/long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Actually, the 0z might have increased the totals by the slightest margin. think were in a good spot right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: Actually, the 0z might have increased the totals by the slightest margin. think were in a good spot right now. Yeah I think so too. It looks like a good event. It also looks like a tad longer of duration for the upslope snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 33 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Lol!!!!!!!! I heard it was a one block town filled with a liquor store and a bait shop. It could be worse. I've been around a long time and still haven't found anything wrong with going fishing and getting drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, jburns said: It could be worse. I've been around a long time and still haven't found anything wrong with going fishing and getting drunk. Absolutely not! Some of my best fishing was when I was drinking. I'm more patient drinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Not that I would expect anything different at this point, but the 6z holds course for our little event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Looking good for snowflakes here in WNC tomorrow night into late Friday! Here is what I posted on FB:"Look for clear skies and highs in the upper 50's to low 60's today before a front moves in tomorrow morning. Scattered showers should move in around midnight and they will persist until around the noon hour tomorrow. As the evening progresses, winds will begin to howl across WNC and favorable winds off the Great Lakes will create a fetch of moisture that extends all the way into NC. With temps crashing, I believe snow will fall heavy on the NC/TN border early Friday morning and those snow showers will extend all the way into downtown Asheville, where a dusting of snow is possible. This will be a Northwest Flow type snow with a bit more northern component compared to the usual NWFS, so areas around Boone stand a good chance at seeing accumulating snowfall. I am still a little uncertain on totals at the moment, but if you live above 4000' and within 10 miles of the NC/TN border, 2" would be a decent guess from me at this point in time. Locations as far south as Hendersonville have the chance to see flurries, but Northwest Flow type snow never produces the rates seen in downtown Asheville. After this front passes look for temps to plummet again into the low 20's Saturday morning, but these temps will be short lived as high pressure builds in the Atlantic. I am eyeing a pattern change on the horizon that would bode well for snow lovers over the next 15 days with blocking arctic highs moving across the Great Lakes and strong southern energy being pumped in. In the long range this is what I like to see models showing before a decent snowstorm, so stay tuned, this is the most interested I have been in model watching since mid winter of last year. Check back soon and have a great Wednesday!"Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Alright, I'm avoiding he main thread for a few hours, blowing my mind how good the midday models are. Anyways, the 12z GFS backed off totals slightly, but not enough to really make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 30 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Alright, I'm avoiding he main thread for a few hours, blowing my mind how good the midday models are. Anyways, the 12z GFS backed off totals slightly, but not enough to really make a difference. Yeah I think we are a go for tomorrow night into Friday. Good moisture feed and cold air. It will vary from run to run but I think it's a lock. Yeah the storm 10 or so days away is positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 34 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah I think we are a go for tomorrow night into Friday. Good moisture feed and cold air. It will vary from run to run but I think it's a lock. Yeah the storm 10 or so days away is positive. The way this winter has gone, I'm still expecting the Bust to happen on one run. Idc so much about the particular storm(s) as most of the forum is. I want to see consistency in the overall pattern from run to run before I start buying our chances for the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: The way this winter has gone, I'm still expecting the Bust to happen on one run. Idc so much about the particular storm(s) as most of the forum is. I want to see consistency in the overall pattern from run to run before I start buying our chances for the next couple of weeks. Yeah it fun to look at but I'm putting zero stock in a storm that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah it fun to look at but I'm putting zero stock in a storm that far out. As you should but don't discount the pattern the models are picking up on. That is a breath of fresh air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 32 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said: As you should but don't discount the pattern the models are picking up on. That is a breath of fresh air. Oh Yeah I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 The NWS has upped pops for tomorrow night into Friday for snow. Also a wind advisory for all the mountains. So this is going to be temps falling off and wind driven snow. I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 42 minutes ago, Met1985 said: The NWS has upped pops for tomorrow night into Friday for snow. Also a wind advisory for all the mountains. So this is going to be temps falling off and wind driven snow. I like it! Yep the first northwest flow event of the season I think. You'd really be in business with a better great lakes connection, but it should still be nice up there. GSP is talking about maybe 2-4 inches of snow above 5000 feet from Swain to Avery counties. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, jshetley said: Yep the first northwest flow event of the season I think. You'd really be in business with a better great lakes connection, but it should still be nice up there. GSP is talking about maybe 2-4 inches of snow above 5000 feet from Swain to Avery counties. Congrats. Yeah the flow is a bit more northerly than NW but at least it's something. The first of the season. The 18z still looks good evendors with a few spots around 6 inches probably around Roan Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 18z gfs looks good again. I'll be heading up to my apartment in Boone tomorrow. Fairly new to the mountains and NWFS events, especially since there weren't many last winter. What are the best short range models to look at for these events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3k nam gave me a heart attack for our end of the week system. 4k nam looked to be the most realistic in terms of snow and showing favored locations if anyone needs to see a more detailed chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 hour ago, NC_WX10 said: 18z gfs looks good again. I'll be heading up to my apartment in Boone tomorrow. Fairly new to the mountains and NWFS events, especially since there weren't many last winter. What are the best short range models to look at for these events? Really in my experience the gfs does very well with these type events. The NAM is awful in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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