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2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread

nchighcountrywx

By nchighcountrywx,
in Southeastern States

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Bob2016

Bob2016

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Weather channel? If so I dont ever ever listen to them there a joke! And were do you live in nc foothills im sitting at 50°. I've never been shut out on snow in my 25+ years in the foothills maybe hickory but thats not foothills in my book. Lol sorry met I was referring to the new guy dont know how I quoted a post from oct.

Hi McDowell I live in North wilkesboro area next to city of wilkesboro like Going towards Boone some people here. Say this area is foothills not what I heard foothills was deep gap on towards Boone is considered foothills, some folks here say wilkesboro and North wilkesboro is considered down in valley areas i only lived here about 1 year 4 months use to live down in statesville don't know much of this area yet

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
58 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

6z holds course. Maybe the slightest drop in proj. Accumulations.

Yeah I thought it looked really good. A great upslope signal and a pretty good duration on this event. Looks like the best lift and forcing will be overnight Thursday through early Friday morning which will give us the greatest chance for accumulation.  

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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

12z holds serve! Well I am officially all in on this one. This looks like the best chance we have had all season long. The NWS has increased pops a but hut that should continue to go up as long as the GFS and Euro holds. 

I don't know if I can believe the 12z. It's a weenie run via the kuchera method. Solid 3-5 inches along the TN/NC line with a slight expansion of area receiving an inch. Looks good, but not sure I buy all of it.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I don't know if I can believe the 12z. It's a weenie run via the kuchera method. Solid 3-5 inches along the TN/NC line with a slight expansion of area receiving an inch. Looks good, but not sure I buy all of it.

I'm all in bro! Basically 2 days out. This is a classic upslope event with great lift and forcing along the TN/NC line. It looks like rain changes to snow Thursday evening then around midnight through early Friday we get hammered with great upslope snow. I'd say a good 8 to the 10 hours of great lift and forcing at the perfect time overnight.

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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

I'm all in bro! Basically 2 days out. This is a classic upslope event with great lift and forcing along the TN/NC line. It looks like rain changes to snow Thursday evening then around midnight through early Friday we get hammered with great upslope snow. I'd say a good 8 to the 10 hours of great lift and forcing at the perfect time overnight.

I'm optimistic, but we need to keep it in check. the CMC doesn't look good. 

*edit- CMC looks worse than the 0z run.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I'm optimistic, but we need to keep it in check. the CMC doesn't look good. 

The CMC sucks plain and simple. The gfs has had this look for several days unless it crap the bed just 48 hours basically from go time. If it does then all these weenies saying it has dethroned the EURO I'm going to give a reality check to. Well I'm excited but will see what the rest of the day looks like.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

Ok, we are now entering range with the NAM which is closer to the GFS but says sorry for those near and SW of Asheville.

NAM sucks big time with these events too at least from previous upslope events it does. It drastically under does the moisture. Just my opinion though but worth watching.

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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

NAM sucks big time with these events too at least from previous upslope events it does. It drastically under does the moisture. Just my opinion though but worth watching.

Yea, I'm just trying not to be a weenie with this, and look at as much model guidance as I can. I'm cautiously optimistic.

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Bob2016

Bob2016

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

I could never boycott it because i live to bash it. Do seem a lititle encouraged with the para.

Hi folks well glad to hear post here about snow Thursday night I heard it may till into Tuesday night with only snow showers looks like it will change over to all snow up there in mountains I am in North wilkesboro and the wilkesboro area no snow forecasted here all rain one of neighbors said we are down in valleys will get all rain snow in Boone or most of mountain areas and higher foothill area yeah we are not in foothills I told neighbors oh I see. Said nothing else oh well that's okay this neighbor has been here for more than 28 years hardly see snow in this area mostly rain and only rain 

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McDowell_Weather

McDowell_Weather

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob2016 said:

Hi folks well glad to hear post here about snow Thursday night I heard it may till into Tuesday night with only snow showers looks like it will change over to all snow up there in mountains I am in North wilkesboro and the wilkesboro area no snow forecasted here all rain one of neighbors said we are down in valleys will get all rain snow in Boone or most of mountain areas and higher foothill area yeah we are not in foothills I told neighbors oh I see. Said nothing else oh well that's okay this neighbor has been here for more than 28 years hardly see snow in this area mostly rain and only rain 

Lol you are definitely in the foothills. All the areas along the eastern side of the blue ridge are foothills. 

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said:

One thing that is getting me really excited with the possible upcoming pattern is the total QPF through the end of the run on the GFS keeps going up. If we can get the moisture that the GFS is showing, i'll take it to the bank that something big is coming.

Yeah someone posted that the CPC has us above average precip and below average temps at the 8 through 14 day observation. All good signs. I still think we wait until mid month for fireworks.

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Bob2016

Bob2016

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Lol you are definitely in the foothills. All the areas along the eastern side of the blue ridge are foothills. 

Ohh ok I guess someone told me wrong that I wasn't in foothills ha well now I know from you about it thanks for that info that helps I must be close to the blue ridge parkway and that area up here 

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FlatLander48

FlatLander48

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah someone posted that the CPC has us above average precip and below average temps at the 8 through 14 day observation. All good signs. I still think we wait until mI'd month for fireworks.

I don't know if we will have to wait that long. If even part of that system the Euro had at the end of it's run happens, it could be a good one. granted the 0z will probably go back to what were looking at for the past couple of days.

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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said:

I don't know if we will have to wait that long. If even part of that system the Euro had at the end of it's run happens, it could be a good one. granted the 0z will probably go back to what were looking at for the past couple of days.

Lol don't say that! I do think we flip flop which will drive most crazy.

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SnoJoe

SnoJoe

Posted
Posted

GSP doesn't sound too enthused but I'll take an inch at this point.

  

Expect upslope snow to develop by Thursday night across the favored
locations in the northern mountains. There is no strong wave and the
flow does not have a Great Lakes connection so accumulations should
be limited to 1-2 inches in those favored areas. Also, wind gusts
around 45 mph are possible over the higher peaks of western North
Carolina.
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Met1985

Met1985

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SnoJoe said:

GSP doesn't sound too enthused but I'll take an inch at this point.

  


Expect upslope snow to develop by Thursday night across the favored
locations in the northern mountains. There is no strong wave and the
flow does not have a Great Lakes connection so accumulations should
be limited to 1-2 inches in those favored areas. Also, wind gusts
around 45 mph are possible over the higher peaks of western North
Carolina.

I disagree with this but I'll take what i can take. Maybe an advisory maybe not. It's looked good on the GFS for several days so I'll take my chances.

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