SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 2 hours ago, Tyler Penland said: 12z Euro looks really good as well. Hopefully we keep this look and snag something. Euro also tries to start off as ZR here Sunday morning and drops 1/4" before we go barely above freezing. Doubtful we see any of that but worth watching I guess. Certainly nothing else to keep an eye on ha. Hey. I do a lot of cross country skiing in the northern mountains of WV (tucker county). I think this thread may have a lot in common with that area because they profit from northwesterly flow and upslope. At any rate, 12z GFS continues to look good for an upslope event. Hope the appalachians can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 The 12z still looks decent for some upslope fun. We really cannot be picky at this point. The temps look cold and hopefully that upper low drops south enough to realky put us in some wintet weather. The pattern after that looks cold in the west lol. My gosh is that one heck of a cold outbreak out there. I'm still it looking for a real change until about the middle of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: Hey. I do a lot of cross country skiing in the northern mountains of WV (tucker county). I think this thread may have a lot in common with that area because they profit from northwesterly flow and upslope. At any rate, 12z GFS continues to look good for an upslope event. Hope the appalachians can cash in. Yeah I agree. We have a lot of similarity in we both do well in upslope snow. Hopefully we can both cash in. At least an advisory level even. 12z does look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 11 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Toss it. Lol, don't worry, not like I'm taking stock in it. Just nice to see something in the LR as compared to nothing that the models have shown for 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: Lol, don't worry, not like I'm taking stock in it. Just nice to see something in the LR as compared to nothing that the models have shown for 2-3 weeks. I'm sick and tired of looking at the LR and see the west just get demolished out there by cold and snow. This pattern is a chit pattern. It's getting real old but trying to stay positive. At least we have something to track before it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: I'm sick and tired of looking at the LR and see the west just get demolished out there by cold and snow. This pattern is a chit pattern. It's getting real old but trying to stay positive. At least we have something to track before it warms up. Yea that's why I posted the fantasy map to start with, just to try and keep some hope. It's getting really old, but it doesn't surprise me since most of the seasonals that were posted back in September-October didn't look good. The only real surprise is the lack of clippers coming through for us. I have yet to record a trace of snow at my house. Once I get home from work I'm gonna try and see when the latest we've had our first snow is. We have to be close to that, if not passed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob2016 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Hi all Merry Christmas.inkist want to put here I notice changes in weather from NC SC GA all way to lower Texas.that we now have gulf tropical weather has moved into these states.they are Calling for more spring/summer air to move into our areas this week all the way to March 2017 the thermometer is showing 60's very warm and will climb into 70's it is getting warmer now already.early they have said no winter for our states from NC to Texas we will not see it winter will be pushed to north states and northeast areas will see winter and snow NC SC GA on down will not see snow at all only warmer weather and rain that's it I heard we are moving into tropical climate for.these areas it's disappointing to see nothing for 2016-2017 unfortunately.wr won't need the jackets and coats or gloves caps anymore as.it is gonna be to warm for it I saw people wearing summer clothes yesterday said get ready for early spring/summer like temperatures to.rise rapidly and get so warm it will feel like summer oh well if that's true I will move to where winter and snow is i live snow what do you think will happen in this southeast states for winter months? Any ideas I hope it doesn't get warmer it's winter gee I want to see snow I.live in foothills in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 1 hour ago, Bob2016 said: Hi all Merry Christmas.inkist want to put here I notice changes in weather from NC SC GA all way to lower Texas.that we now have gulf tropical weather has moved into these states.they are Calling for more spring/summer air to move into our areas this week all the way to March 2017 the thermometer is showing 60's very warm and will climb into 70's it is getting warmer now already.early they have said no winter for our states from NC to Texas we will not see it winter will be pushed to north states and northeast areas will see winter and snow NC SC GA on down will not see snow at all only warmer weather and rain that's it I heard we are moving into tropical climate for.these areas it's disappointing to see nothing for 2016-2017 unfortunately.wr won't need the jackets and coats or gloves caps anymore as.it is gonna be to warm for it I saw people wearing summer clothes yesterday said get ready for early spring/summer like temperatures to.rise rapidly and get so warm it will feel like summer oh well if that's true I will move to where winter and snow is i live snow what do you think will happen in this southeast states for winter months? Any ideas I hope it doesn't get warmer it's winter gee I want to see snow I.live in foothills in NC Your kidding me with this post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Your kidding me with this post... You guys need a panic room. This could be the inaugural post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob2016 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Your kidding me with this post... Nope I wish I were but this is what I heard on weather appears that the way the weather is they said warming up and getting more warmer as it is so I don't work for them I just tune in to see what they say.now other people said weather has always said things Then something else happens and almost always wrong I don't know if that is the case but weather didn't look good to us out here kids in my area said hey where is the snow cute I told them I don't know that's all I said so maybe it will drop and get colder again and maybe we might get some I am hoping for.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 On 10/16/2016 at 11:27 AM, Met1985 said: Yeah I just noticed the Gfs finally got it crap together instead of putting a lot of energy in the SW as a cutoff it actually finally shows a cold front coming through as the Euro has been showing this for days. We do get a good legitimate cold snap starting on the 21st. May not see some highs out of the 40s in higher elevations. We will finally see a widespread frost/freeze o believe also if it pans out. As for flurries it's way early. Weather channel? If so I dont ever ever listen to them there a joke! And were do you live in nc foothills im sitting at 50°. I've never been shut out on snow in my 25+ years in the foothills maybe hickory but thats not foothills in my book. Lol sorry met I was referring to the new guy dont know how I quoted a post from oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 3 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: Weather channel? If so I dont ever ever listen to them there a joke! And were do you live in nc foothills im sitting at 50°. I've never been shut out on snow in my 25+ years in the foothills maybe hickory but thats not foothills in my book. Lol sorry met I was referring to the new guy dont know how I quoted a post from oct. Lol you quoted the wrong post but I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 14 minutes ago, Bob2016 said: Nope I wish I were but this is what I heard on weather appears that the way the weather is they said warming up and getting more warmer as it is so I don't work for them I just tune in to see what they say.now other people said weather has always said things Then something else happens and almost always wrong I don't know if that is the case but weather didn't look good to us out here kids in my area said hey where is the snow cute I told them I don't know that's all I said so maybe it will drop and get colder again and maybe we might get some I am hoping for.it Take a seat and watch what goes on. The conus has cold air and really cold at that. It's a pattern not a subtropical change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 57 minutes ago, Bob2016 said: Nope I wish I were but this is what I heard on weather appears that the way the weather is they said warming up and getting more warmer as it is so I don't work for them I just tune in to see what they say.now other people said weather has always said things Then something else happens and almost always wrong I don't know if that is the case but weather didn't look good to us out here kids in my area said hey where is the snow cute I told them I don't know that's all I said so maybe it will drop and get colder again and maybe we might get some I am hoping for.it Relax. It will come. Let's be more positive here. So we are now in the range where I willl start getting my hopes up for our little evento Thursday into Friday then again Saturday morning. I think this will be our first chance at seeing mountain county wide snow accumulations, even if most of us will be in the dusting to half inch mark. It's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 I thought the 18z actually looked better than the 12z. I like the look from Thursdayevening through Friday morning. I would say at this point we have a high Thursday in the morning with temps dropping through the day. Friday we stay below freezing all day I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 10 minutes ago, Met1985 said: I thought the 18z actually looked better than the 12z. I like the look from Thursdayevening through Friday morning. I would say at this point we have a high Thursday in the morning with temps dropping through the day. Friday we stay below freezing all day I believe. that would be a classic NWFS with the high taking place early in the morning, should actually help with the warmer temps to eek out every drop of moisture as the snow starts to fall before the bottom drops out on the temps. looking at the 18z, it appears to have the snow showers/flurries last 3-6 hours longer than the 12z, so I'm in agreement that it looks better. Temps look to be close to freezing but slightly below through most of the mountain counties but a considerable increase into the foothills (as usual). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 5 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: that would be a classic NWFS with the high taking place early in the morning, should actually help with the warmer temps to eek out every drop of moisture as the snow starts to fall before the bottom drops out on the temps. looking at the 18z, it appears to have the snow showers/flurries last 3-6 hours longer than the 12z, so I'm in agreement that it looks better. Temps look to be close to freezing but slightly below through most of the mountain counties but a considerable increase into the foothills (as usual). Yeah the foothills usually get screwed with these setups. Yeah this looks like a textbook upslope event. I'm getting pretty excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 26, 2016 Share Posted December 26, 2016 Yeah the foothills usually get screwed with these setups. Yeah this looks like a textbook upslope event. I'm getting pretty excited.Northern foothills tend to do okay if the wind flow is perfect Something to watch! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 17 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Northern foothills tend to do okay if the wind flow is perfect Something to watch! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk True the further north you are the better. You can actually get something from Virginia. Yes at least it's something to watch. And, and it's only 3 days away!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Another piece of not bad news is through the 384 hours on the Canadian ensembles(too tired to look at all this stuff right now), it shows almost the entire SE getting at least 2 inches of precip and some places 4-6. We're entering January which is on average our coldest month, all it takes is the right timing and we're really in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 6 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Another piece of not bad news is through the 384 hours on the Canadian ensembles(too tired to look at all this stuff right now), it shows almost the entire SE getting at least 2 inches of precip and some places 4-6. We're entering January which is on average our coldest month, all it takes is the right timing and we're really in business. Yes good news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 "It's getting juicy!!!!!"-Me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 1 minute ago, AsheCounty48 said: "It's getting juicy!!!!!"-Me. Was just fixing to say that the 00z looks real good also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Was just fixing to say that the 00z looks real good also! Yea, I'm starting to get excited now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 8 minutes ago, AsheCounty48 said: Yea, I'm starting to get excited now. Yeah I will give it 1 more day before I go full blown weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, Met1985 said: Yeah I will give it 1 more day before I go full blown weenie! If the 6z and/or 12z have comparable amounts, I'm taking it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 Just now, AsheCounty48 said: If the 6z and/or 12z have comparable amounts, I'm taking it to the bank. yeah I agree. That gives about two days from the 12z so ill be super happy by lunch time tomorrow hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 I'm rooting hard for you guys. Think you'll reel this one in. I busted hard on my winter forecast. Thought clippers would be the main attraction this season. Been nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I'm rooting hard for you guys. Think you'll reel this one in. I busted hard on my winter forecast. Thought clippers would be the main attraction this season. Been nada. Meh its early still. I hope we can reel this one in, Practically 3 days away. If the GFS busts hard at this range I'm going to boycott it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 27, 2016 Share Posted December 27, 2016 4 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Meh its early still. I hope we can reel this one in, Practically 3 days away. If the GFS busts hard at this range I'm going to boycott it. I could never boycott it because i live to bash it. Do seem a lititle encouraged with the para. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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