FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/8/2017 at 11:42 PM, Tyler Penland said: If I can get 3" out of this I'll ride off into the summer sunset happy. That would get me to roughly 50% of yearly average. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Expand Same. I think 4 inches will get us to our 50% of average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neatlburbwthrguy Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 2:00 AM, AsheCounty48 said: Same. I think 4 inches will get us to our 50% of average. Expand How does the area around Sapphire/Cashiers look to do with the weekend event? I'll be there at an elevation of 3000 feet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 GSP with an HWO 3 days out. Impressive. ..Saturday...Winter weather possible. A cold front will bring much colder air to the region late this week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop across the Deep South over the weekend and spread moisture into western North Carolina beginning Saturday night. While precipitation would probably start out as rain, temperatures may fall enough Saturday night to support a transition to snow across the mountains. At least light accumulations are possible. However, forecast confidence is very low at this time. ..Sunday...Winter weather possible. Chances for accumulating snow will continue across the mountains into early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 1:58 AM, AsheCounty48 said: This was too funny not to share. talk about an interesting March for the mtns. Expand A good track for us. Puts us on that heavy shield of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 2:57 AM, SnoJoe said: GSP with an HWO 3 days out. Impressive. ..Saturday...Winter weather possible. A cold front will bring much colder air to the region late this week. An area of low pressure is expected to develop across the Deep South over the weekend and spread moisture into western North Carolina beginning Saturday night. While precipitation would probably start out as rain, temperatures may fall enough Saturday night to support a transition to snow across the mountains. At least light accumulations are possible. However, forecast confidence is very low at this time. ..Sunday...Winter weather possible. Chances for accumulating snow will continue across the mountains into early Sunday. Expand Yeah its an interesting setup especially for this time of year. So far we are seeing some good runs. Some consistent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Midterms are this week so I haven't look at forums much this week, but unlike January storm that screwed me in RDU area, I'll be in Asheville for this one. Mother Nature own me one I do have to say things are looking promising, especially Euro ensembles. NAM and GFS both came in decent, but we'll have to see. Things really improved for Asheville as we got closer to the main event back in January so I'm hoping for repeat of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 2:50 AM, neatlburbwthrguy said: How does the area around Sapphire/Cashiers look to do with the weekend event? I'll be there at an elevation of 3000 feet... Expand Looks good for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Here's the 6z Nam. I'm not sure what the ratios would be for the event, but I don't think we should expect but about 75% of this to fall, and 25% of that 75% to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 Ground temps are overrated if you get heavy enough rates with temps in upper 20s in mountains you will get a decent storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 12:39 PM, AsheCounty48 said: Here's the 6z Nam. I'm not sure what the ratios would be for the event, but I don't think we should expect but about 75% of this to fall, and 25% of that 75% to stick. Expand If the Euro is right on temps we'll barely break freezing on Saturday which should help immensely with that. Also it's spitting out 13-14:1 ratios on Eurowx so not terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 3:56 PM, Tyler Penland said: If the Euro is right on temps we'll barely break freezing on Saturday which should help immensely with that. Also it's spitting out 13-14:1 ratios on Eurowx so not terrible. Expand Yea the timing has changed a bit too. It originally was a mostly Saturday afternoon storm that is now a saturday night storm which helps a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 1:19 PM, wncsnow said: Ground temps are overrated if you get heavy enough rates with temps in upper 20s in mountains you will get a decent storm. Expand Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 well...to be fair we might not even have a Saturday storm by the time the 18z runs come out,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:34 PM, AsheCounty48 said: well...to be fair we might not even have a Saturday storm by the time the 18z runs come out,...You already going to cliff dive on this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:50 PM, Hvward said: You already going to cliff dive on this one? Expand Lol no, I just think it's interesting considering most models weaken the first low as it moves down. Not saying it's likely, but it's a possibility. Waiting for the Euro, since it's been weak and suppressed, if it weakens more...ehhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 5:52 PM, AsheCounty48 said: Lol no, I just think it's interesting considering most models weaken the first low as it moves down. Not saying it's likely, but it's a possibility. Waiting for the Euro, since it's been weak and suppressed, if it weakens more...ehhhWell that was interesting. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 6:40 PM, Tyler Penland said: Well that was interesting. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Expand I may now be cliff diving lol, unless the Euro shows snow for us saturday, but based on the free maps, I just don't see enough to warrant much attention, but I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 6:49 PM, AsheCounty48 said: I may now be cliff diving lolYou saw next Mon/Tue right? I'd gladly sacrifice Saturday down to a couple inches to score that on Monday night. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 6:50 PM, Tyler Penland said: You saw next Mon/Tue right? I'd gladly sacrifice Saturday down to a couple inches to score that on Monday night. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Expand No I just mean for the Saturday event . Not the whole upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The pattern the next seven days look good. Let things play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I'm still undecided on if I even want it to snow. Playing 36 holes today in absolute gorgeous weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 My youngest daughter is moving next weekend up to Seven Devils. She will be working at Grandfather Mountain caring for the animals. Nothing like getting a degree and then shoveling bear sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 8:21 PM, jburns said: My youngest daughter is moving next weekend up to Seven Devils. She will be working at Grandfather Mountain caring for the animals. Nothing like getting a degree and then shoveling bear sh*t. Expand I did an internship up there a couple of years ago. A great place to work as long as you like to talk to people. Or...Bears I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 NAM doubling down at 18z. 8"-10" for all of Buncombe/Haywood. That would be a huge overrunning event. Not sure I buy it though. Stupid Tapatalk images are messed up or I would post the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 8:21 PM, jburns said: My youngest daughter is moving next weekend up to Seven Devils. She will be working at Grandfather Mountain caring for the animals. Nothing like getting a degree and then shoveling bear sh*t. Expand Lol nice Burns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 9:37 PM, Hvward said: NAM doubling down at 18z. 8"-10" for all of Buncombe/Haywood. That would be a huge overrunning event. Not sure I buy it though. Stupid Tapatalk images are messed up or I would post the map. Expand Was just going to mention that. Nam is very impressive with totals in WNC. Especially mid the southern counties near the boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 The gfs still looks decent. Not as great by any means as the NAM but at least we are tracking something. This is the weekend wave I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 I hope the overrunning pans out. Hoping the coastal gets going in time is not want I'm interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 10:06 PM, franklin NCwx said: I hope the overrunning pans out. Hoping the coastal gets going in time is not want I'm interested in. Expand Yeah I agree. We can score and score big in overunning events especially in March. The 14th and 15th time frame still looks great in my opinion. At least according to the 18z. I am game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted March 9, 2017 Share Posted March 9, 2017 On 3/9/2017 at 10:24 PM, Met1985 said: Yeah I agree. We can score and score bug in overunning events especially in March. The 14th and 15th time frame still looks great in my opinion. At least according to the 18z. I am game. Expand I 2nd that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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