BooneWX Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Flurries in Boone this morning. The fetch of moisture in TN and KY looks healthy on radar. Maybe by lunch time, we will have all received a nice burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Pretty heavy snow right now in Ashe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z gfs looks much better than the 6z for sunday/monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Solid dusting so far. Glad to have winter back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 I'm struck with the tiny flakes syndrome again. Heavy rates, but the flakes are too small to really accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Light snow in fines creek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Any idea how much the ski resorts are expected to get tonight-Sunday, and would it be worth a drive up from Charlotte? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 3:53 PM, Met1985 said: Light snow in fines creek Expand Light flurries here, finally feels like winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Just checked the blowing rock downtown webcam. Amazing difference between Boone and there. Nice dusting on everything and coming down steadily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 4:37 PM, NC_WX10 said: Just checked the blowing rock downtown webcam. Amazing difference between Boone and there. Nice dusting on everything and coming down steadily. Expand This is one of the rare times that even ashe is getting more than Boone. GF goes to App and has been sending me pictures and we have more here than she has there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 5:13 PM, AsheCounty48 said: This is one of the rare times that even ashe is getting more than Boone. GF goes to App and has been sending me pictures and we have more here than she has there. Expand Yeah the last two winters just haven't been in our favor here in Boone. I have two more winters up here before I graduate so hopefully one of those will atleast be an average snowfall year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 5:15 PM, NC_WX10 said: Yeah the last two winters just haven't been in our favor here in Boone. I have two more winters up here before I graduate so hopefully one of those will atleast be an average snowfall year. Expand Don't worry, I'm transferring to App in the fall and will be living on campus, so next winter will be amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The sun is out in Boone. Oh well. Sunday night looks promising imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Getting more snow than I thought I would today. About a half inch, maybe a little more and it has been constant all day. Temps have been pretty steady as well, actually dropped a degree. Down to 19.5 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 7:00 PM, SnoJoe said: Getting more snow than I thought I would today. About a half inch, maybe a little more and it has been constant all day. Temps have been pretty steady as well, actually dropped a degree. Down to 19.5 now. Expand I'm going to have to check about buying some land up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Had off and on flurries in Boone today. Nothing to get excited about though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Big difference in Boone and Blowing Rock today. Left for work at noon with white roads and a solid dusting. Webcam looked like it kept up all day. Bring on the clipper on my days off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/27/2017 at 9:26 PM, Met1985 said: I'm going to have to check about buying some land up that way. Expand Nah. Your county is gorgeous. If I had to leave Yancey, it would be to northern Haywood or maybe the Lake Santeetlah area in Graham. For some reason, I love the Robbinsville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 SO glad I decided to run with this storm when it popped up a few days ago. This has a chance of being a big one. *Obviously still 9 days away so everything is taken with a chunk of salt*. One thing I liked on this run vs. other runs that have shown a similar track is that the temperature profiles for the mountain counties are considerably better, although still not perfect. Another thing I like is the agreement with the euro and GFS right now. Although it doesn't mean much this far out, I view it as a positive sign that both models view a big SE storm as a possibility, however slim. now to the bad. no consistency really in the models. In the past 36 hours this storm has been a SE crusher, an apps runner, and a storm that went directly north from Texas and then turned right across the Ohio valley. also, the temps; although better, still are marginal at the surface. Yes, I know it appears cold on the 18z. but look at the 2m temps at hour 234,they they don't make sense so I'm adding a few degrees given the location of the LP.. summary: It is possible we have another storm almost a direct month after our last one. the details don't look great, but with 9 days away, they don't matter very much obviously. I haven't looked at the upper air modeling yet so I don't have much of a comment on that yet. *EDIT* went back and looked at it from the national view. temps were actually not as big of a concern as cold appears to be here before the storm which I wasn't really expecting based on previous runs. *EDIT 2* Based on 500mb and 850 mb temps, everywhere north and west of Gastonia would be all snow, with less Frz rain that is depicted on this map. *EDIT 3* Canadian also has the SE low, but with no cold air and a completely different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 2:04 AM, AsheCounty48 said: SO glad I decided to run with this storm when it popped up a few days ago. This has a chance of being a big one. *Obviously still 9 days away so everything is taken with a chunk of salt*. One thing I liked on this run vs. other runs that have shown a similar track is that the temperature profiles for the mountain counties are considerably better, although still not perfect. Another thing I like is the agreement with the euro and GFS right now. Although it doesn't mean much this far out, I view it as a positive sign that both models view a big SE storm as a possibility, however slim. Expand You did call it. If it comes to fruition, we will name it "Winter Storm Ashe". I know the Morristown radar is in clear air mode but returns are ramping up a bit. I'm getting a decent shower now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 2:15 AM, SnoJoe said: You did call it if it comes to fruition. We will name it "Winter Storm Ashe". I know the Morristown radar is in clear air mode but returns are ramping up a bit. I'm getting a decent shower now. Expand that has a really nice ring to it lol. But then again, we'd be just as bad as TWC... I'm kind of disappointed in the weather today. the snow wasn't bad, but the sun kept coming back out so it was impossible for anything to stick for longer than 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 also worth noting for this weekends clipper: the RGEM has snow starting as early as 6 am on sunday for the northern mountain counties, where midday models didn't have it starting til after noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 1:54 AM, SnoJoe said: Nah. Your county is gorgeous. If I had to leave Yancey, it would be to northern Haywood or maybe the Lake Santeetlah area in Graham. For some reason, I love the Robbinsville area. Expand Thanks Joe. It is beautiful country around here. Just gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Good job Ashe on sticking with the early February event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 So just got home and the back roads are pretty slick around Blowing Rock. Accumulations vary due to wind but I'd say around an inch or so of windblown powder. Pretty nice NWF event for MBY. Probably try to get some pics in the morning. If we can tack on another inch or two Sunday and next weekend's storm comes to fruition we'll be well on our way to at least 50% of average (around 30" or so). edit; should note it's still a heavy flurry going on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 2:04 AM, AsheCounty48 said: SO glad I decided to run with this storm when it popped up a few days ago. This has a chance of being a big one. *Obviously still 9 days away so everything is taken with a chunk of salt*. One thing I liked on this run vs. other runs that have shown a similar track is that the temperature profiles for the mountain counties are considerably better, although still not perfect. Another thing I like is the agreement with the euro and GFS right now. Although it doesn't mean much this far out, I view it as a positive sign that both models view a big SE storm as a possibility, however slim. now to the bad. no consistency really in the models. In the past 36 hours this storm has been a SE crusher, an apps runner, and a storm that went directly north from Texas and then turned right across the Ohio valley. also, the temps; although better, still are marginal at the surface. Yes, I know it appears cold on the 18z. but look at the 2m temps at hour 234,they they don't make sense so I'm adding a few degrees given the location of the LP.. summary: It is possible we have another storm almost a direct month after our last one. the details don't look great, but with 9 days away, they don't matter very much obviously. I haven't looked at the upper air modeling yet so I don't have much of a comment on that yet. *EDIT* went back and looked at it from the national view. temps were actually not as big of a concern as cold appears to be here before the storm which I wasn't really expecting based on previous runs. *EDIT 2* Based on 500mb and 850 mb temps, everywhere north and west of Gastonia would be all snow, with less Frz rain that is depicted on this map. *EDIT 3* Canadian also has the SE low, but with no cold air and a completely different setup. Expand This system has caught my eye! Robert has posted about it also. It's the classic look & worth watching. In the meantime.....enjoy the flow event and provide obs + pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Ray seems to think we'll all do pretty well over the next 48 hours. At this point, this is a "moderate" event for us. "...Then a Manitoba Mauler (first cousin to an Alberta Clipper) passes to our north Sunday night. It brings a more steady period of snowfall--late Sunday into Monday morning. Most of NW North Carolina will have 2"-4" of snow by Monday morning, but western mountaintops will pick up 4"-6" (with isolated higher totals). The far eastern edge of the Appalachians can expect a dusting to 2". Monday will be very cold and windy with decreasing afternoon clouds." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 On 1/28/2017 at 1:57 PM, SnoJoe said: Ray seems to think we'll all do pretty well over the next 48 hours. At this point, this is a "moderate" event for us. "...Then a Manitoba Mauler (first cousin to an Alberta Clipper) passes to our north Sunday night. It brings a more steady period of snowfall--late Sunday into Monday morning. Most of NW North Carolina will have 2"-4" of snow by Monday morning, but western mountaintops will pick up 4"-6" (with isolated higher totals). The far eastern edge of the Appalachians can expect a dusting to 2". Monday will be very cold and windy with decreasing afternoon clouds." Expand I hope you higher elevation guys break the trend. NW flow snow or clipper snow either one have been hard to come by the past few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 Midday models, although look like crap, really aren't too far off from something nice, if the LP moves south a tad, we get the PV lobe in a better spot, or a stronger high and we're in business. I still like the chances given its 8-9 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 28, 2017 Share Posted January 28, 2017 And the RGEM continues to show the highest snow totals through monday, though I still think a drier system is more likely, as shown on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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