FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 If the models follow the NAM with the s/w being pushed farther southwest....we could be in for a surprise run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:33 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: HT, is it safe to say now that the NAM has trended with the GFS and Ukie now?Baby steps but it still has a minimum amount south of the I-40 corridor. Just like the Euro. I'm still not comfortable. Too many significant changes in the forecast too close to the event start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob2016 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 8:28 PM, NavarreDon said: Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...HEAVY SNOWFALL LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS... .A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES SATURDAY MORNING. GAZ010-017-NCZ036-037-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-507>510- SCZ001>003-005>009-012>014-060400- /O.UPG.KGSP.WS.A.0001.170107T0000Z-170107T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.WS.W.0001.170107T0000Z-170107T1800Z/ RABUN-HABERSHAM-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA- HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS- EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS- GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE- SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-LAURENS-CHESTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN... MOUNTAIN CITY...CORNELIA...DEMOREST...CLARKESVILLE...HOLLYWOOD... STATESVILLE...MOORESVILLE...FARMINGTON...FORK CHURCH... MOCKSVILLE...ADVANCE...HICKORY...NEWTON...ST. STEPHENS... SALISBURY...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN...LITTLE RIVER... HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER...DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO... ETOWAH...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...LINCOLNTON...CROUSE... GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...KANNAPOLIS...MONROE...TRINITY... INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON... SPINDALE...SALUDA...TRYON...COLUMBUS...MILL SPRING... MOUNTAIN REST...WALHALLA...WESTMINSTER...PUMPKINTOWN... TIGERVILLE...GOWENSVILLE...CLEVELAND...EASLEY...DACUSVILLE... CLEMSON...GREENVILLE...TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...FORK SHOALS... SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...CATAWBA... ROCK HILL...LAURENS...CLINTON...UNION...MONARCH MILLS...CHESTER... CORNWELL...GREAT FALLS 315 PM EST THU JAN 5 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF SATURDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. * IMPACTS...THE HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE MANY ROADS IMPASSABLE AND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DUE TO THE WEIGHT OF THE SNOW ON TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * VISIBILITY...LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Expand Wow good for you guys, unfortunately wilkes county which north wilkesboro and wilkesboro area will not see snow here, only the counties that were listed will see it meaning,we are outside of snowfall areas looks like will be dry here or rain oh well.. thats okay maybe next time we will get some here, I was surprised to see Wilkes county cities was not included where i am sheesh. Was hoping for it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 9:31 PM, Bob2016 said: Wow good for you guys, unfortunately wilkes county which north wilkesboro and wilkesboro area will not see snow here, only the counties that were listed will see it meaning,we are outside of snowfall areas looks like will be dry here or rain oh well.. thats okay maybe next time we will get some here, I was surprised to see Wilkes county cities was not included where i am sheesh. Was hoping for it.. Expand Bob dont worry that warning was from GSP in south carolina. The area you live in is covered by blacksburgh Virginia. Im sure they will issue you a winter storm warning shortly. Nothing to sweat over brother im sure your looking at 4-6in like the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS trended down some.. still shows downslope precip minimum.. RGEM looks decent though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob2016 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 9:36 PM, McDowell_Weather said: Bob dont worry that warning was from GSP in south carolina. The area you live in is covered by blacksburgh Virginia. Im sure they will issue you a winter storm warning shortly. Nothing to sweat over brother im sure your looking at 4-6in like the rest of us. Expand Oh I didn't know I was in the Blacksburg Virginia coverage area ha no wonder,it got mixed up with that, yeah your right about that..now I know thanks for telling me about it that helps a bit,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 9:45 PM, wncsnow said: GFS trended down some.. still shows downslope precip minimum.. RGEM looks decent though Expand Yea I thought it would look worse, but for the immediate mountain counties, it didn't change drastically for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 9:58 PM, AsheCounty48 said: Yea I thought it would look worse, but for the immediate mountain counties, it didn't change drastically for the most part.From what I saw, 18Z GFS really lowered amounts in the mountains. Much closer to 12Z NAM and Euro. Gotta stick with my 1-2" call despite NWS warnings. Nothing seems to be adding up anywhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 10:02 PM, HurricaneTracker said: From what I saw, 18Z GFS really lowered amounts in the mountains. Much closer to 12Z NAM and Euro. Gotta stick with my 1-2" call despite NWS warnings. Nothing seems to be adding up anywhere! Expand Hmm...maybe I'm forgetting in the thirty seconds between switching threads, it's a real possibility lol. At least in my area it didn't change too much although the totals got slashed in the foothills next to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowbird1230 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS ticked NW again..if this holds precip should begin to play catch up..hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 10:09 PM, snowbird1230 said: GFS ticked NW again..if this holds precip should begin to play catch up..hopefully Expand I'm still confused. The 18z Low shifted NW ~30 miles but precip went SE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12Z GFS for Asheville was 5.5" including ratios. 18Z down to only 0.10" of liquid and 1.1" of snow. WowSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The trends this afternoon have not been good. The models do not seem honed in on anyone solution. This is a high bust scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 10:27 PM, HurricaneTracker said: 12Z GFS for Asheville was 5.5" including ratios. 18Z down to only 0.10" of liquid and 1.1" of snow. Wow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand Is it not true that the 18Z is not usually a model of choice. probably the worst model to look at is what I heard years ago, maybe from Robert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Well guys I think I am going to be in Reidsville for this one. Trends have looked pretty good them today. Might be able to squeeze out 4-6 back there. Good luck to all of yall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Stuck in Surry County for this weekend. Hello Lee side. I'll expect maybe an inch and hope for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 10:46 PM, fritschy said: Is it not true that the 18Z is not usually a model of choice. probably the worst model to look at is what I heard years ago, maybe from RobertNot much anymore. Satellite data ingest is way better than it used to be at the 06 and 18Z times. They still don't take in all the fresh upper air data but they are still useful for monitoring trends and such. Right now trends are drier for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 11:04 PM, HurricaneTracker said: Not much anymore. Satellite data ingest is way better than it used to be at the 06 and 18Z times. They still don't take in all the fresh upper air data but they are still useful for monitoring trends and such. Right now trends are drier for the mountains. Expand Thanks, maybe it trends better tonight or tomorrow. like to see the 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Too late to ask for another push NW? Think we still need one more good shove. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Anything to that "first wave" that everyone was talking about yesterday or is that off the table now? Only got to a high of 33.7 today so I think the ground should be pretty well prepped for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 10:45 PM, Met1985 said: The trends this afternoon have not been good. The models do not seem honed in on anyone solution. This is a high bust scenario. Expand If sure is. Had enough of these late developing storms or cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 11:25 PM, franklin NCwx said: If sure is. Had enough of these late developing storms or cutters. Expand Yeah I know. For some reasons the models have been horrible with this or the Euro has just been that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 10:27 PM, HurricaneTracker said: 12Z GFS for Asheville was 5.5" including ratios. 18Z down to only 0.10" of liquid and 1.1" of snow. Wow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand That is what is annoying about being a snow lover. Spending time, waking up in the middle of the night.... for a .10 inch of liquid equivalent, I think I could chew a bunch of starburst and spit a .10 of an inch. I'm not greedy. I'm fine with our eastern friends getting their big snow, but it would be nice to get a few inches at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 The GEFS does not look too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 On 1/5/2017 at 11:40 PM, ncjoaquin said: That is what is annoying about being a snow lover. Spending time, waking up in the middle of the night.... for a .10 inch of liquid equivalent, I think I could chew a bunch of starburst and spit a .10 of an inch. I'm not greedy. I'm fine with our eastern friends getting their big snow, but it would be nice to get a few inches at least. Expand Definitely have spent way too much time also on this one. Hopefully it was just a bad run and things will get better. So hard to pull away after watching run after run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 18z GFS wasn't terrible for the NW mountains. Still has around .49" QPF for Boone which is 8.5" at 15:1. Quick dropoff down the hill, though. edit: GEFS almost identical at .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What ratios are we lookin at for most of the mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 12:03 AM, Rainforrest said: What ratios are we lookin at for most of the mtns. Expand 12 to 15:1 is what I have seen depending on location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Now that the storm is on land can anyone here give us a better understanding of how it is doing? Stronger than anticipated/modeled? We've been through quite the roller coaster here in the mountain forum going from little to a lot back to a little again. Should be interesting none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Boom! Sref up to 8 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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