Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It's hard to jump on a snowy solution without the support of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 7:04 PM, Met1985 said: It's hard to jump on a snowy solution without the support of the euro. Expand The GFS has preformed well this winter. Not sure if it had anything to do with the upgrade in the summer. Something will eventually pass the Euro however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 7:29 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: The GFS has preformed well this winter. Not sure if it had anything to do with the upgrade in the summer. Something will eventually pass the Euro however. Expand Yeah I'm hoping that the Euro caves to the GFS. I'm just being pessimistic currently. The models are all over the freaking place currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 7:37 PM, Met1985 said: Yeah I'm hoping that the Euro caves to the GFS. I'm just being pessimistic currently. The models are all over the freaking place currently. Expand Caution is the word for now. Hopefully this one will work out for a large area. We certainly have had our share of boring weather and would be nice to be on the extreme side for a while. Maybe this is the slosh/rubber band theory that is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 7:57 PM, PisgahNCWeather said: Caution is the word for now. Hopefully this one will work out for a large area. We certainly have had our share of boring weather and would be nice to be on the extreme side for a while. Maybe this is the slosh/rubber band theory that is in play. Expand Lol hopefully so. I hope we can score. If we score this early I actually think we could score again later in the month. The AO looks great in the mid to longe range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 7:57 PM, PisgahNCWeather said: Caution is the word for now. Hopefully this one will work out for a large area. We certainly have had our share of boring weather and would be nice to be on the extreme side for a while. Maybe this is the slosh/rubber band theory that is in play. Expand For us I think we should be cautiously optimistic. We are the mountains after all and unless the storm goes straight off the Florida coast or up through Kentucky, we're gonna get our share of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:00 PM, Met1985 said: Lol hopefully so. I hope we can score. If we score this early I actually think we could score again later in the month. The AO looks great in the mid to longe range. Expand Definitely shaping up for the future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:02 PM, AsheCounty48 said: For us I think we should be cautiously optimistic. We are the mountains after all and unless the storm goes straight off the Florida coast or up through Kentucky, we're gonna get our share of it. Expand It's the strength of the storm for us really. That's the difference in 1 to 2 inches or 1 to 2 feet lol. I could actually do wit the low cutting through Eastern parts of the carolinas to put us in heavier precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:05 PM, PisgahNCWeather said: Definitely shaping up for the future! Expand I think so. Iv been harping on mid to end of this month. To me this is extra if we can score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:02 PM, AsheCounty48 said: For us I think we should be cautiously optimistic. We are the mountains after all and unless the storm goes straight off the Florida coast or up through Kentucky, we're gonna get our share of it. Expand If only we could control it but probably a good thing we can't. If I could control it we'd be looking at non-stop blizzard conditions and temps peaking at 30 below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Sounds like the EPS matches the euro op pretty well. It's hard to go against the EURO, EPS, CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 And I'm not believing any model no matter how consistent until it comes ashore Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:17 PM, AsheCounty48 said: And I'm not believing any model no matter how consistent until it comes ashore Wednesday. Expand Probably best but it's funny watching the weenies freak out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:18 PM, Met1985 said: Probably best but it's funny watching the weenies freak out. Expand I mean the 12z GFS had the biggest single snowstorm in my life so I was freaking a little too. But I'm able to realize that it's going to take every little thing to go right to have a storm like that. Looks good as my desktop background though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:21 PM, AsheCounty48 said: I mean the 12z GFS had the biggest single snowstorm in my life so I was freaking a little too. But I'm able to realize that it's going to take every little thing to go right to have a storm like that. Looks good as my desktop background though. Expand Lol oh yeah. I'm thinking there is a middle ground here. Shoot I'd take a foot and call it a storm. I'm not too picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PisgahNCWeather Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:21 PM, AsheCounty48 said: I mean the 12z GFS had the biggest single snowstorm in my life so I was freaking a little too. But I'm able to realize that it's going to take every little thing to go right to have a storm like that. Looks good as my desktop background though. Expand It was fun. Not trusting any model at this point. Think it will go down to the wire like they always do. Is it too much to ask for model consensus like the 93 superstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 2, 2017 Author Share Posted January 2, 2017 Always to the wire and if WPC does not believe their own models you have an uphill battle 5 days out, but hey that's half the fun right? The timing of this one will be great at the peak of the winter. Hoping we can reel a good one in. Me: Cross Country Sticks and Poles and Snow Shoes will be ready for this weekend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:42 PM, nchighcountrywx said: Always to the wire and if WPC does not believe their own models you have an uphill battle 5 days out, but hey that's half the fun right? The timing of this one will be great at the peak of the winter. Hoping we can reel a good one in. Me: Cross Country Sticks and Poles and Snow Shoes will be ready for this weekend..... Expand Sounds fun. I'll be at work but that's how it always is. Big snow means I'll be at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 EPS looked abysmal for anyone wanting snow in WNC. For KAVL looks like only 2 or 3 members showing more than 1"-2". I will take whatever snowfall I can get but I would love to see more optimism from the EPS. I will say that it has been wrong before and I have seen the EPS make big switches a time or two before, but I would be much more confident in a decent snowstorm if more members were showing the possibility. 18z GFS looks like it will show another big se snowstorm for the third time in a row though. Interesting.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:03 PM, Hvward said: EPS looked abysmal for anyone wanting snow in WNC. For KAVL looks like only 2 or 3 members showing more than 1"-2". I will take whatever snowfall I can get but I would love to see more optimism from the EPS. I will say that it has been wrong before and I have seen the EPS make big switches a time or two before, but I would be much more confident in a decent snowstorm if more members were showing the possibility. 18z GFS looks like it will show another big se snowstorm for the third time in a row though. Interesting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand I personally like where we're sitting at this range. I can't imagine either the Euro nor GFS will continue verbatim much longer. Considering both are stern in their predictions, it wouldn't surprise me one bit to see a blend of the 2. Neither would a NW/warmer trend. Considering this piece of energy hasn't even been sampled yet, I'll gladly take where we're at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 It has been a while since the Mountains have been screwed out of a storm while our neighbors to the east cashed in big. Guess we are overdue. Not giving up hope yet though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:03 PM, Hvward said: EPS looked abysmal for anyone wanting snow in WNC. For KAVL looks like only 2 or 3 members showing more than 1"-2". I will take whatever snowfall I can get but I would love to see more optimism from the EPS. I will say that it has been wrong before and I have seen the EPS make big switches a time or two before, but I would be much more confident in a decent snowstorm if more members were showing the possibility. 18z GFS looks like it will show another big se snowstorm for the third time in a row though. Interesting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Expand 18z actually cut our totals by quite a bit. Still a lot if time. I could see us seeing a north trend though 24 to 48 hours before go time. Iv seen it before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:50 PM, Met1985 said: 18z actually cut our totals by quite a bit. Still a lot if time. I could see us seeing a north trend though 24 to 48 hours before go time. Iv seen it before. Expand I've seen it more than I can count. I think it's highly unlikely that the track goes unchanged at this juncture. I also think northern and or western adjustments are going to be much more likely than their counterparts. Just given previous storms of this nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 10:56 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said: I've seen it more than I can count. I think it's highly unlikely that the track goes unchanged at this juncture. I also think northern and or western adjustments are going to be much more likely than their counterparts. Just given previous storms is this nature. Expand I agree. I was thinking this could trend further North than a lot of people want taking a majority out of the snow line. I could see a jump late in the week on the models which would be good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 This is when I miss Robert. He had an uncanny ability to decipher models, but he also was great at meteorology and pattern recognition. Hurricane Tracker should be waking up from his early winter slumber soon also. I honestly would be happy to get a few inches just to avoid a shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Lots to watch and not going Into any details as Jason Boyer just stated.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 8:42 PM, nchighcountrywx said: Always to the wire and if WPC does not believe their own models you have an uphill battle 5 days out, but hey that's half the fun right? The timing of this one will be great at the peak of the winter. Hoping we can reel a good one in. Me: Cross Country Sticks and Poles and Snow Shoes will be ready for this weekend..... Running the high shoals half at south mountain state park Saturday at 9 am! Hoping for snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 11:08 PM, ncjoaquin said: This is when I miss Robert. He had an uncanny ability to decipher models, but he also was great at meteorology and pattern recognition. Hurricane Tracker should be waking up from his early winter slumber soon also. I honestly would be happy to get a few inches just to avoid a shut out. No doubt Jason.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 11:08 PM, ncjoaquin said: This is when I miss Robert. He had an uncanny ability to decipher models, but he also was great at meteorology and pattern recognition. Hurricane Tracker should be waking up from his early winter slumber soon also. I honestly would be happy to get a few inches just to avoid a shut out. Expand Betty White and Jason both made it through 2016. Congrats! Robert also did very well in upslope events too. He was extremely accurate on precip amounts which is probably the hardest part to predict when it comes to NWFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 3, 2017 Share Posted January 3, 2017 On 1/2/2017 at 11:45 PM, SnoJoe said: Betty White and Jason both made it through 2016. Congrats! Robert also did very well in upslope events too. He was extremely accurate on precip amounts which is probably the hardest part to predict when it comes to NWFS. Expand I would put my money on Betty White to last longer ! I need to start running with Mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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