2016 Mountains & Foothills Fall & Winter Thread

[nchighcountrywx]

First solid winter like day today in the NC High Country with early afternoon temperatures from 40 up top to mid 40s

 

 

[Met1985]

Hey bro if your going to make a Fall/winter thread make it the 5th annual Fall/winter thread.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

 

[Met1985]

Yeah we got some patchy frost this morning with a low of 35 degrees! 

[franklin NCwx]

Had some small areas of frost yesterday with a low of 36, only got down to 39 this morning.

[Met1985]

Another light frost with a temp of 34 degrees this morning. 

[raysum]

This puts the drought in perspective. Great graphic from GSP

[Met1985]

6 hours ago, raysum said:

This puts the drought in perspective. Great graphic from GSP

Thanks for posting. We need a really wet winter. 

[NWNC2015]

need a lot of cold hard rain this winter in south-west nc, mixed precip, frozen precip, flurries, dustings, graupel seem to go unaccounted for in the drought maps

[Met1985]

The day 7 through 10 euro would be exactly what WNC needs. A strong cutoff that just spins and gives up a cool rain for a couple of days.

[Silas Lang]

After this Summer, cold rain doesn't seem bad at all.  And of course it is needed. Is it better we are in a drought now as opposed to in the dead of Winter? I mean things have to flip eventually precipitation wise and I'm sure most would rather it not occur now than in the dead of Winter. Is there any data to support this? I'm just spit balling here.

[NWNC2015]

36 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

After this Summer, cold rain doesn't seem bad at all.  And of course it is needed. Is it better we are in a drought now as opposed to in the dead of Winter? I mean things have to flip eventually precipitation wise and I'm sure most would rather it not occur now than in the dead of Winter. Is there any data to support this? I'm just spit balling here.

no look at California if the drought wants to stay in south-west NC it can and will

[Silas Lang]

1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said:

no look at California if the drought wants to stay in south-west NC it can and will

That is certainly true. Anyone have any historical drought data for WNC? Just curious as to what years have been historically dry for this part of the state. Particularly in the Fall and Winter.

[Met1985]

17 hours ago, Silas Lang said:

After this Summer, cold rain doesn't seem bad at all.  And of course it is needed. Is it better we are in a drought now as opposed to in the dead of Winter? I mean things have to flip eventually precipitation wise and I'm sure most would rather it not occur now than in the dead of Winter. Is there any data to support this? I'm just spit balling here.

My opinion most likely it will change. Living her over 30 years iv seen several dry summers that change to very wet winters. Whether we get a lot of snow is another conversation.  I think we do flip eventually.  Early Fall here is usually dry so it should not come to anyone's surprise that it's this way currently.  The California analogy is false in my opinion.  

[NWNC2015]

7 hours ago, Met1985 said:

My opinion most likely it will change. Living her over 30 years iv seen several dry summers that change to very wet winters. Whether we get a lot of snow is another conversation.  I think we do flip eventually.  Early Fall here is usually dry so it should not come to anyone's surprise that it's this way currently.  The California analogy is false in my opinion.  

Raysweather winter forecast is out tonight...he is in the dry boat. Can't say I see much of anything to support a wet winter, drought looks to get worse around Asheville and spread.

CPC says drought is coming for north central NC...much of Virginia...valid through December 31st...in addition to all of western NC.

[SnoJoe]

Went to Salter Path for the storm. Had to rake the yard afterwards but that was about it. Been offshore everyday this week except Monday and we've been slayin' them. Caught a 134 lb yellowfin along with a 54 lb King today alone. Now, can I get home Sunday. Drove up toward Kinston yesterday for dinner at Sammy's and it's bad. I can't go around it north or south.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 hour ago, NWNC2015 said:

Raysweather winter forecast is out tonight...he is in the dry boat. Can't say I see much of anything to support a wet winter, drought looks to get worse around Asheville and spread.

CPC says drought is coming for north central NC...much of Virginia...valid through December 31st...in addition to all of western NC.

Was this before or after he called himself out for being wrong last winter? Lol. 

I'm with Met. I've lived here my entire life and you can throw long range forecasts and analogs out the window right now. I've seen us in exceptional drought in 2009 only to be hammered with snow storm after snow storm in January and February of 2010. Fall is by far our driest season, so the fact that we're not getting any rain should come as no surprise. Also, the CPC extending out through December 31st is hardly an outlook for winter. Winter Solstice doesn't even begin until December 21st. We rarely see a lot of winter precipitation before then. 

I've never seen a drought linger that long in this area, in my lifetime and I don't believe this year will be any different. We always go through the cycle of extreme wet and dry periods, and if I'm going with my gut based on years of living here, I think we'll be ok this winter. 

[nchighcountrywx]

Ray's 2016 - 2017 Winter Forecast

http://averyweather.com/public/FearlessForecast.pdf

FearlessForecast.pdf

[jburns]

17 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Was this before or after he called himself out for being wrong last winter? Lol. 

I'm with Met. I've lived here my entire life and you can throw long range forecasts and analogs out the window right now. I've seen us in exceptional drought in 2009 only to be hammered with snow storm after snow storm in January and February of 2010. Fall is by far our driest season, so the fact that we're not getting any rain should come as no surprise. Also, the CPC extending out through December 31st is hardly an outlook for winter. Winter Solstice doesn't even begin until December 21st. We rarely see a lot of winter precipitation before then. 

I've never seen a drought linger that long in this area, in my lifetime and I don't believe this year will be any different. We always go through the cycle of extreme wet and dry periods, and if I'm going with my gut based on years of living here, I think we'll be ok this winter. 

 

There is not as much variability in precipitation as many people think. Below is the data for Asheville. It's true October is the driest month but January, supposedly the snowiest month, is only .75" higher and November is actually a tiny bit wetter than January.

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Average high in °F:	47	50	58	67	75	82
Average low in °F:	28	31	37	45	53	61
Av. precipitation ininch:	2.87	3.23	3.35	3.03	3.27	3.39
Days with precipitation:	-	-	-	-	-	-
Hours of sunshine:	-	-	-	-	-	-
Average snowfall ininch:	4	3	2	1	0	0

	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average high in °F:	85	84	77	68	58	49
Average low in °F:	65	64	57	46	38	30
Av. precipitation ininch:	3.35	3.43	3.23	2.13	2.91	2.76
Days with precipitation:	-	-	-	-	-	-
Hours of sunshine:	-	-	-	-	-	-
Average snowfall ininch:	0	0	0	0	0	3

[Met1985]

12 hours ago, SnoJoe said:

Went to Salter Path for the storm. Had to rake the yard afterwards but that was about it. Been offshore everyday this week except Monday and we've been slayin' them. Caught a 134 lb yellowfin along with a 54 lb King today alone. Now, can I get home Sunday. Drove up toward Kinston yesterday for dinner at Sammy's and it's bad. I can't go around it north or south.

Dang Joe living the life bud! Yeah that area is pretty bad, we'll actually really bad. 

[Met1985]

11 hours ago, jburns said:

There is not as much variability in precipitation as many people think. Below is the data for Asheville. It's true October is the driest month but January, supposedly the snowiest month, is only .75" higher and November is actually a tiny bit wetter than January.

Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Average high in °F:	47	50	58	67	75	82
Average low in °F:	28	31	37	45	53	61
Av. precipitation ininch:	2.87	3.23	3.35	3.03	3.27	3.39
Days with precipitation:	-	-	-	-	-	-
Hours of sunshine:	-	-	-	-	-	-
Average snowfall ininch:	4	3	2	1	0	0

	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Average high in °F:	85	84	77	68	58	49
Average low in °F:	65	64	57	46	38	30
Av. precipitation ininch:	3.35	3.43	3.23	2.13	2.91	2.76
Days with precipitation:	-	-	-	-	-	-
Hours of sunshine:	-	-	-	-	-	-
Average snowfall ininch:	0	0	0	0	0	3

Thanks Burns for the info. That is some telling info if you ask me. We will be fine in my opinion. 

[Met1985]

11 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Was this before or after he called himself out for being wrong last winter? Lol. 

I'm with Met. I've lived here my entire life and you can throw long range forecasts and analogs out the window right now. I've seen us in exceptional drought in 2009 only to be hammered with snow storm after snow storm in January and February of 2010. Fall is by far our driest season, so the fact that we're not getting any rain should come as no surprise. Also, the CPC extending out through December 31st is hardly an outlook for winter. Winter Solstice doesn't even begin until December 21st. We rarely see a lot of winter precipitation before then. 

I've never seen a drought linger that long in this area, in my lifetime and I don't believe this year will be any different. We always go through the cycle of extreme wet and dry periods, and if I'm going with my gut based on years of living here, I think we'll be ok this winter. 

Very well said and spot on with what I'm thinking.  I respect rays outlook but as he said himself recently his track record the past couple of years has not been stellar.  Iv seen us in such a drought where we had fires here up into November then bam the whole pattern changed and we had a solid winter. Again we are not California either.  

[FlatLander48]

While I agree that a dry winter for the mountains is more likely, it's really hard to predict weather here even a couple of days in advance. North Carolina weather as a whole is tough to predict, and the mountains are by far the hardest to really forecast.but my guess is a drier winter at this point.

[NWNC2015]

Surprised no one is talking about the "first" snowflakes "i think?" coming October 22nd into the 23rd. Not a whole lot of moisture to work with, likely limited to the western slope areas and or above 3,500ft, where its just cold enough, but its been on some models (GFS) on and off. 

Very minor scruff of snow accumulation on the latest 0z GFS for western NC.

CMC not too far off but a little different/funky...has two pockets of below freezing temps in the foothills with rain on the doorstep in the MTNS.

[jshetley]

On 10/14/2016 at 11:17 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Was this before or after he called himself out for being wrong last winter? Lol. 

I'm with Met. I've lived here my entire life and you can throw long range forecasts and analogs out the window right now. I've seen us in exceptional drought in 2009 only to be hammered with snow storm after snow storm in January and February of 2010. Fall is by far our driest season, so the fact that we're not getting any rain should come as no surprise. Also, the CPC extending out through December 31st is hardly an outlook for winter. Winter Solstice doesn't even begin until December 21st. We rarely see a lot of winter precipitation before then. 

I've never seen a drought linger that long in this area, in my lifetime and I don't believe this year will be any different. We always go through the cycle of extreme wet and dry periods, and if I'm going with my gut based on years of living here, I think we'll be ok this winter. 

This drought is only going to get much worse around the southeast and will be spreading. By this time next year, it'll be just as bad from NC to AL and Tenn as it is in Cal now. Rays Weather and the CPC are right about this winter and I think it stays fairly dry until sometime in 2018 because of LaNina.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 hour ago, jshetley said:

This drought is only going to get much worse around the southeast and will be spreading. By this time next year, it'll be just as bad from NC to AL and Tenn as it is in Cal now. Rays Weather and the CPC are right about this winter and I think it stays fairly dry until sometime in 2018 because of LaNina.

Were these the same sources that made you believe there would be insufferable heat well into October?

I'll take 30+ years of experience over 2 year doomsday forecasts. I personally don't believe this drought is worse than the one in 2007 which developed during an El Niño winter. Go figure, hence why I say you can throw analogs and forecasts out the window right now. We here in WNC will be fine. 

[Met1985]

3 hours ago, jshetley said:

This drought is only going to get much worse around the southeast and will be spreading. By this time next year, it'll be just as bad from NC to AL and Tenn as it is in Cal now. Rays Weather and the CPC are right about this winter and I think it stays fairly dry until sometime in 2018 because of LaNina.

I'm calling you out on this post because you have no facts to back it up. We are barely in a La Nina if at all. I think El Nino was so strong we actually see some intermittent El Nino patterns show up this winter. We are dry but we are the only ones in the whole state that is this dry. Even NW WNC are not in a drought.  We had a dry wintet last year really that started it all in a super El Nino.  I do agree we are dry but I do not think we stay this way until 2018. Again we are not California. 

[Met1985]

2 hours ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Were these the same sources that made you believe there would be insufferable heat well into October?

I'll take 30+ years of experience over 2 year doomsday forecasts. I personally don't believe this drought is worse than the one in 2007 which developed during an El Niño winter. Go figure, hence why I say you can throw analogs and forecasts out the window right now. We here in WNC will be fine. 

Again 100% on que. I absolutely agree with you. As I mentioned we started getting dry lady Fall/winter in an El Nino.  Who would have thunk it? Lol. We will be fine. If not I'll eat crow.

[jburns]

2 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Again 100% on que. I absolutely agree with you. As I mentioned we started getting dry lady Fall/winter in an El Nino.  Who would have thunk it? Lol. We will be fine. If not I'll eat crow.

 

You'll have to think of doing something else if jshetley is correct and you are wrong.  All the crows will be dead.

[Met1985]

9 hours ago, NWNC2015 said:

Surprised no one is talking about the "first" snowflakes "i think?" coming October 22nd into the 23rd. Not a whole lot of moisture to work with, likely limited to the western slope areas and or above 3,500ft, where its just cold enough, but its been on some models (GFS) on and off. 

Very minor scruff of snow accumulation on the latest 0z GFS for western NC.

CMC not too far off but a little different/funky...has two pockets of below freezing temps in the foothills with rain on the doorstep in the MTNS.

Yeah I just noticed the Gfs finally got it crap together instead of putting a lot of energy in the SW as a cutoff it actually finally shows a cold front coming through as the Euro has been showing this for days. We do get a good legitimate cold snap starting on the 21st. May not see some highs out of the 40s in higher elevations.  We will finally see a widespread frost/freeze o believe also if it pans out. As for flurries it's way early.