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0z Models 12/22/10


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A close match, except each day was about 20 degrees warmer and there were literally no storms on the map! But, yeah, other than that, close match!

The Northern Hemispheric pattern, not your backyard. There was actually a major snowstorm in the Southeast during that very similar setup. Sorry the same can't be said for Elizabeth, NJ.

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I posted this in the NYC thread, but haven't seen any explanations:

One thing that I found interesting about the 0z GFS vs the 18z run is that the features on the 0z are slower and the surface low is much deeper at a lower lattitude, yet the eventual track is almost identical to the 18z track.

In other words, although slower at 0z than at 18z (and deeper farther south) if you ignore the timing, the surface low track into the north Atlantic from both runs is very similar...which isn't what I would have expected. I would have expected the slower deeper solution to be closer to the coast and it is not per this run.

Is this something I should find interesting or is it a trivial detail?

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GGEM looks further off-shore than Euro...

yea GGEM is a miss for our area... might hook in and hit New England but its gonna be wide right for DC. Looks like at best tonight we will still only have the Euro on our side. I hate to side with Ji but he had a point, the euro is usually deadly when it has support from any other models...but when it is totally on its own it has let us down usually.

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yea GGEM is a miss for our area... might hook in and hit New England but its gonna be wide right for DC. Looks like at best tonight we will still only have the Euro on our side. I hate to side with Ji but he had a point, the euro is usually deadly when it has support from any other models...but when it is totally on its own it has let us down usually.

maybe so, but it does have some support from the GGEM, this run is more east, but has a lot in common with the EURO, and the 12z more so. I would argue the GGEM is still closer to the EURO.

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yea GGEM is a miss for our area... might hook in and hit New England but its gonna be wide right for DC. Looks like at best tonight we will still only have the Euro on our side. I hate to side with Ji but he had a point, the euro is usually deadly when it has support from any other models...but when it is totally on its own it has let us down usually.

If the Euro shifts east, major backpeddaling will occur. I know most news stations have already basically guarenteed snow here. Will wait and see for 0z Euro but it seems as all the other models jumped to a similar offshore consensus in one run.

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