AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A close match, except each day was about 20 degrees warmer and there were literally no storms on the map! But, yeah, other than that, close match! The Northern Hemispheric pattern, not your backyard. There was actually a major snowstorm in the Southeast during that very similar setup. Sorry the same can't be said for Elizabeth, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 LOL I hear the convo on the radio show. It's tonights run (00z 12/22) at 144 hrs. You might break your neck looking at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the initial idea for the Gfs giving DC some light snow no matter what has now evaporated. So we dont even have a 1-3 inch backup solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 not good man...UKMET and EURO need to be close. Wonder if EURO will trend in the gfs direction tonight. My guess is yes you are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GGEM to 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I like what I see on the Canadian thus far even compared to it's 12z run..it's more amplified with the ridge, slower with the shortwave, and more enthused with the northern stream interaction. So we will see where this goes. We saw the GFS look better and then crap the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 easier view of ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GGEM to 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I swear the Canadians mess with us and pull computing power whenever there is a storm potential! It's as slow as sin tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 00z Canadian through 72 hrs is majorly phased..much more so than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ggem looking better at 72. slower, sharper ridge out west, and looks like more northern stream energy is getting involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 .GGEM to 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Gonna be close at 108..it's trying to tug it up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GGEM looks further off-shore than Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GGEM looks further off-shore than Euro... 12z was as well...EURO brought it onto LI whereas the GGEM was just off the tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12z was as well...EURO brought it onto LI whereas the GGEM was just off the tip. 0z GGEM will probably pass well to the east of Montauk Point. P.S. Not as far as I feared. It's SE of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS ensemble mean is similar to the op, but it looks like there's a few members that bring this thing west based on the mean at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 you have to hit crt f5 to clear cache... its correct and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 977 southeast of the BM at 120...precip is meager along I-95...east of there getting some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It has 2 H5 lows right next to one another at 120...that doesn't look right at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 0z gfs ensemble looks closer to coast than 18z ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I posted this in the NYC thread, but haven't seen any explanations: One thing that I found interesting about the 0z GFS vs the 18z run is that the features on the 0z are slower and the surface low is much deeper at a lower lattitude, yet the eventual track is almost identical to the 18z track. In other words, although slower at 0z than at 18z (and deeper farther south) if you ignore the timing, the surface low track into the north Atlantic from both runs is very similar...which isn't what I would have expected. I would have expected the slower deeper solution to be closer to the coast and it is not per this run. Is this something I should find interesting or is it a trivial detail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GGEM definately east of 12z, precip doesnt even really make it to RIC. Dont know about areas further NE along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Grazes coastal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GGEM looks further off-shore than Euro... yea GGEM is a miss for our area... might hook in and hit New England but its gonna be wide right for DC. Looks like at best tonight we will still only have the Euro on our side. I hate to side with Ji but he had a point, the euro is usually deadly when it has support from any other models...but when it is totally on its own it has let us down usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 yea GGEM is a miss for our area... might hook in and hit New England but its gonna be wide right for DC. Looks like at best tonight we will still only have the Euro on our side. I hate to side with Ji but he had a point, the euro is usually deadly when it has support from any other models...but when it is totally on its own it has let us down usually. maybe so, but it does have some support from the GGEM, this run is more east, but has a lot in common with the EURO, and the 12z more so. I would argue the GGEM is still closer to the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 yea GGEM is a miss for our area... might hook in and hit New England but its gonna be wide right for DC. Looks like at best tonight we will still only have the Euro on our side. I hate to side with Ji but he had a point, the euro is usually deadly when it has support from any other models...but when it is totally on its own it has let us down usually. If the Euro shifts east, major backpeddaling will occur. I know most news stations have already basically guarenteed snow here. Will wait and see for 0z Euro but it seems as all the other models jumped to a similar offshore consensus in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 now we just need the euro to waffle and we can call it a night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 00Z GEM now looks like a compromise between the 12Z Euro and 00Z GFS to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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