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0z Models 12/22/10


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Also..check out how the H5 shortwave that is responsible for the initial surface low formation in the gulf escapes east a bit on the GFS and doesn't fully phase. The whole thing becomes disjointed a bit. Hopefully it's the typical GFS east bias..we see it literally every single time with the big ones. If the GGEM and Euro hold tonight I will be much more excited. Amazing to consider the Euro has actually come west it's past 3 or 4 runs.

That is ultimately what killed us in 2001...by us I mean in NJ.

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Dude, it trended towards the Euro pretty strongly. GFS is playing its usual games at this range.

Euro has been pretty bad with east coast events so far this winter season. Lets hope it rebounds in a big way . I remember the big midwest storm...it was the most west solution and hit never wavered and ended up being right

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Question, maybe a bit off-topic sorry if it is. Do the Euro and GFS have access to exactly the same data? Or are there areas of the world where one is getting more/less data than the other?

In terms of observations, basically yes (it's not identical, because all of the cut-off times are different, and relies on communications etc.). However, how those observations are used are radically different (particularly for the EC which uses a 12 hour window/4DVAR, versus a 6 hour +/- 3 hour window and 3DVAR). Additionally, each center employs its own quality control and error characterization (yes, it's true, observations are imperfect).

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December 2001 is actually a pretty good match to this pattern.. any close misses that month?

I just remember it was a wasted -NAO and the cold air was modified crap. I can't recall if there was any modeled hits that didn't pan out.

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you know... i was just looking at the euro loop again and it gets pretty far south and east before turning due north... a similar looking solution at 72 hours could easily yield a slide off the coast with a slightly different phasing. Perhaps we are looking at the wrong thing and this is simply predicated on getting the northern and southern streams to phase in just the exact right way. Another tricky proposition. Also notice on the GFS how the northern stream energy never really dives in and cuts off but remains progressive. Completely different from how the euro handles the phasing of the two streams. I am just not sure timing and strength of the STJ alone is the total issue.

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you know... i was just looking at the euro loop again and it gets pretty far south and east before turning due north... a similar looking solution at 72 hours could easily yield a slide off the coast with a slightly different phasing. Perhaps we are looking at the wrong thing and this is simply predicated on getting the northern and southern streams to phase in just the exact right way. Another tricky proposition. Also notice on the GFS how the northern stream energy never really dives in and cuts off but remains progressive. Completely different from how the euro handles the phasing of the two streams. I am just not sure timing and strength of the STJ alone is the total issue.

Great post and precisely my concern with the trends aloft, made a very similar post a few pages back.

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Euro has been pretty bad with east coast events so far this winter season. Lets hope it rebounds in a big way . I remember the big midwest storm...it was the most west solution and hit never wavered and ended up being right

I know to you a cutter is a cutter, but the EURO was actually too far northwest with the Dec 12 storm for several runs. At one point, it took a sfc low from GRB to central Lake Huron. GGEM actually preformed better with its compromise solution, keeping the sfc reflection in the northern Ohio Valley.

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December 2001 is actually a pretty good match to this pattern.. any close misses that month?

there was only one significant storm that entire winter and it was a little too warm for the big cities. West of DC got some ice, snow started around Frederick MD to Harrisburg PA. State College PA got 13". That storm happened right after New Years. Before that were some clippers and smaller events. It started to blowtorch after that for most of the rest of winter.

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Great post and precisely my concern with the trends aloft, made a very similar post a few pages back.

Just keep in mind - as I watched the event last night and this one thursday unfold up here, the GFS was horrible really at this range handling the energy skirting across the Dakotas. It was off by 400-800 miles between d3-5. Tonight might have been the big adjustment or maybe not, we will see soon. Once it got the general picture right the handling of that northern feature varied within the norm.

I'm not entirely sure how a slower/stronger northern system would really play out in this situation.

As I flip through the GFS I see a lobe of vorticity diving down from ND about 90 hours in, it hits the base of the trough at 114 hours and seems to be the impetus for booting everything east. It eventually sharpens and closes into the 5h low that spins up and out offshore.

The GFS has been too fast, but that doesn't mean it will do the same this time.

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as far as models, when there is a big snowstorm that occurs, what we usually see is the Euro and Ukmet in agreement.. The GGEM is close and the GFS is out to sea with nothing for the east coast. For the most part, the EURO has won the model war

When the Euro had a storm and had no other model support including the GFS, the GFS usually won

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as far as models, when there is a big snowstorm that occurs, what we usually see is the Euro and Ukmet in agreement.. The GGEM is close and the GFS is out to sea with nothing for the east coast. For the most part, the EURO has won the model war

When the Euro had a storm and had no other model support including the GFS, the GFS usually won

There is actually some credibility to this statement.

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there was a big blizzard jan 02 that hit the SE. 14 inches in Norfolk. DC got nothing of course

Oh yea I totally forgot that one.... there was that storm right after the holidays... for one or two runs it looked like it would hit DC but then trended back south again...northern fringe of the snow got to richmond and that was it. Yea it was mostly a wasted period of -NAO. A few clippers, a storm that stayed south, and then when it finally did get a storm as the pattern broke down it cut too far inland and the cities got rain. Big snow up the Apps

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