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0z Models 12/22/10


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It's just not quite there with the heights in the northern stream so far. The Euro is a good bit more phased than the GFS and that's what helps it bring the surface low up the coast as it gets captured.

I agree that this won't be quite like the ECMWF. It is definitely a move toward it though.

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I agree that this won't be quite like the ECMWF. It is definitely a move toward it though.

I'm just a little bit concerned given the progressive pattern. The trend towards the Euro is good obviously given the Euro solution, but the H5 depiction on the guidance (GFS for example) narrows the window of opportunity to get a storm coming up the coast.

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Been trying to watch the times when the models can line up with the same time frame as the EC. Looking at 84 on this run and comparing to EC at 96, the 500 vort is in just about the same place, in or around LA. Also of note, on the GFS 18z heights in southern WVA were at 540, on the 0z, they are at 552.

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I'm just a little bit concerned given the progressive pattern. The trend towards the Euro is good obviously given the Euro solution, but the H5 depiction on the guidance (GFS for example) narrows the window of opportunity to get a storm coming up the coast.

That's all okay as long as the low drops in and goes negatively tilted/closed off. Then it becomes a perfect position...this way it doesn't come inland.

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It's pretty cool that the usually terrible Pacific pattern is helping us in the Mid-Atlantic. A strong +EPO forces the Pacific Jet to overwhelm, moving the strong Midwest ridge over the top of the trough and will help cut this storm off near the Delaware coast. This may end up being a VA/NC centered bullseye by the time model trends are done.

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Based on the pill shaped trough at 129h, this is clearly not quite as phased up as it looked on earlier panels.

Yeah..this was my concern. It obviously got a bit better and trended towards the Euro but the northern stream being slower to cross the International Border was the first indication that this run wasn't going to cut it.

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This run is crap. Two h5 lows at 132h?

Also..check out how the H5 shortwave that is responsible for the initial surface low formation in the gulf escapes east a bit on the GFS and doesn't fully phase. The whole thing becomes disjointed a bit. Hopefully it's the typical GFS east bias..we see it literally every single time with the big ones. If the GGEM and Euro hold tonight I will be much more excited. Amazing to consider the Euro has actually come west it's past 3 or 4 runs.

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84-87 hours is where the magic happens over the Southeast states..and if you look carefully the GFS doesn't quite phase. If it phases the initial shortwave into the northern stream at that point, the entire thing comes crawling up the coast and rapid cyclogenesis likely occurs on the baroclinic zone.

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