HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's just not quite there with the heights in the northern stream so far. The Euro is a good bit more phased than the GFS and that's what helps it bring the surface low up the coast as it gets captured. I agree that this won't be quite like the ECMWF. It is definitely a move toward it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 WOW what a difference at 90h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I agree that this won't be quite like the ECMWF. It is definitely a move toward it though. it is worlds apart from 12z, though especially with the great lakes system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Ontario wave is diving in for a phase job.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I agree that this won't be quite like the ECMWF. It is definitely a move toward it though. I'm just a little bit concerned given the progressive pattern. The trend towards the Euro is good obviously given the Euro solution, but the H5 depiction on the guidance (GFS for example) narrows the window of opportunity to get a storm coming up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow, look at the 850 line vertical in the middle of the country at 90HR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 84 500 looks pretty similar on nam and gfs... nam definitely was not as good as the euro imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Been trying to watch the times when the models can line up with the same time frame as the EC. Looking at 84 on this run and comparing to EC at 96, the 500 vort is in just about the same place, in or around LA. Also of note, on the GFS 18z heights in southern WVA were at 540, on the 0z, they are at 552. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm just a little bit concerned given the progressive pattern. The trend towards the Euro is good obviously given the Euro solution, but the H5 depiction on the guidance (GFS for example) narrows the window of opportunity to get a storm coming up the coast. That's all okay as long as the low drops in and goes negatively tilted/closed off. Then it becomes a perfect position...this way it doesn't come inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Trying incredibly hard to tug back towards the coast but so far it looks like it's going to slip just east. H5 is closed over the OH Valley at 114 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 84 500 looks pretty similar on nam and gfs... nam definitely was not as good as the euro imo This run is totally different from 18Z, though. It and the NAM both moved to the Euro, clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 84 500 looks pretty similar on nam and gfs... nam definitely was not as good as the euro imo And the NAM/GFS are as close to agreement as you'll just about ever see at 84 hours. Very good to see the consensus hopefully starting to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I love the look of the GFS tonight... major move towards the euro, its just losing the STJ energy too fast, typical GFS bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rlsrlj Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wow, look at the 850 line vertical in the middle of the country at 90HR. Also it looks like an 850mb closed low is trying to pinch off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Given the 12z and 00z NAM, add a trend toward the 12z Euro for the 00z GFS, and assuming the 00z Euro looks like the 12z Euro, I might start to be convinced. the 850 depiction is very bothersome on the 84hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 It's pretty cool that the usually terrible Pacific pattern is helping us in the Mid-Atlantic. A strong +EPO forces the Pacific Jet to overwhelm, moving the strong Midwest ridge over the top of the trough and will help cut this storm off near the Delaware coast. This may end up being a VA/NC centered bullseye by the time model trends are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 lol at the GFS. Looks good through 90... then poof... magic... messes up the phasing and off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Based on the pill shaped trough at 129h, this is clearly not quite as phased up as it looked on earlier panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Question, maybe a bit off-topic sorry if it is. Do the Euro and GFS have access to exactly the same data? Or are there areas of the world where one is getting more/less data than the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 114hr off NC coast... closed 5h low in Ohio. better step but still the northern stream energy doesnt catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 0z ukie still further west of 0z gfs hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run is crap. Two h5 lows at 132h? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looks like good agreement up until about 96 hr (when sfc low moves across the western gulf shore), then diverge thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Based on the pill shaped trough at 129h, this is clearly not quite as phased up as it looked on earlier panels. Yeah..this was my concern. It obviously got a bit better and trended towards the Euro but the northern stream being slower to cross the International Border was the first indication that this run wasn't going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run is crap. Two h5 lows at 132h? everything looks great until 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 H5 is a mess, southern stream is crushed, storm goes bye bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run is crap. Two h5 lows at 132h? Also..check out how the H5 shortwave that is responsible for the initial surface low formation in the gulf escapes east a bit on the GFS and doesn't fully phase. The whole thing becomes disjointed a bit. Hopefully it's the typical GFS east bias..we see it literally every single time with the big ones. If the GGEM and Euro hold tonight I will be much more excited. Amazing to consider the Euro has actually come west it's past 3 or 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 A pair of testicles for an h5 pattern? Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run is crap. Two h5 lows at 132h? LOL, it's the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 84-87 hours is where the magic happens over the Southeast states..and if you look carefully the GFS doesn't quite phase. If it phases the initial shortwave into the northern stream at that point, the entire thing comes crawling up the coast and rapid cyclogenesis likely occurs on the baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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