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0z Models 12/22/10


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You will never see a map look identical to another model's depiction, it's a mathematical impossibility (well, almost.) The fact remains that the NAM and the Euro look pretty damned close. Not exact obviously, but close. Certainly nothing like the GFS.

My mistake in saying it looked like the GFS. Shoudlnt have worded that way and I agree!

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Guest someguy

Given the 12z and 00z NAM, add a trend toward the 12z Euro for the 00z GFS, and assuming the 00z Euro looks like the 12z Euro, I might start to be convinced.

very reasonable angd good post

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Agreed looked ok through 78, but by 84 it seems clear that the whole trough is way too positve tilt as phasing occurs, due to the lingering confluence out in front not allowing any ridging to build ahead of the trough. I hate to say it but kinda looks like the GFS just 12 hrs slower...

Like others have said, exxtropolating a weather model is always dangerous becuase you have to make assumtions that may not be right, we'll see.

Of course the models make assumptions using equations that may not be true also.

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GFS Initialization. Here we go...this thread is going to be long!

NOUS42 KWNO 220134

ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE

NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD

0133Z WED DEC 22 2010

THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME.

OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 12 ALASKAN...30

CANADIAN...71 CONUS...6 MEXICAN...AND 2 CARIBBEAN STATIONS.

00Z NAM RAOB RECAP...

FFC/72215 - PURGED TEMP/DWPT 746-617 MB...WET BULB EFFECT.

BMX/72230 - PURGED TEMP/DWPT 805-791 MB...WET BULB EFFECT.

RNK/72318 - PURGED TEMP/DWPT 743-720 MB...WET BULB EFFECT.

GDH/04320 - PURGED ALL DWPTS...BAD DATA.

OME/70200 - MISSED THE NAM.

ASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM.

ANN/70398 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142.

$$

HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

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The slowing trend continues. 0z GFS about an hour or two slower than 18z and a few hours behind 12z (based on the positioning of the s/w)

Yes it's becoming clear that it was the right move a few days ago to adjust the speed of the s/w based on the blocking. The GFS was aligned with the NOGAPS on speed 2-3 days ago. :devilsmiley:

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This run is a huge leap to the EURO. I have it through 69h and it is trying to close off again over the Red River.

It's just not quite there with the heights in the northern stream so far. The Euro is a good bit more phased than the GFS and that's what helps it bring the surface low up the coast as it gets captured.

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