WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You will never see a map look identical to another model's depiction, it's a mathematical impossibility (well, almost.) The fact remains that the NAM and the Euro look pretty damned close. Not exact obviously, but close. Certainly nothing like the GFS. My mistake in saying it looked like the GFS. Shoudlnt have worded that way and I agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Tonights 00z NAM vs yesterdays 00z (00z 12/21 vs 12/22) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the euro storm is really only 3-4 from starting to develop. If the Euro can forecast this map which is only 3 days away, we should be good for the rest of the solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Given the 12z and 00z NAM, add a trend toward the 12z Euro for the 00z GFS, and assuming the 00z Euro looks like the 12z Euro, I might start to be convinced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Given the 12z and 00z NAM, add a trend toward the 12z Euro for the 00z GFS, and assuming the 00z Euro looks like the 12z Euro, I might start to be convinced. very reasonable angd good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Is that really a 1072 mb surface high over Greenland!? Wow, I suppose thats slowing the movement of the 50/50/ low. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_084l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS Initialization. Here we go...this thread is going to be long! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS out to 6 is already slower with the s/w than 18z/12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Agreed looked ok through 78, but by 84 it seems clear that the whole trough is way too positve tilt as phasing occurs, due to the lingering confluence out in front not allowing any ridging to build ahead of the trough. I hate to say it but kinda looks like the GFS just 12 hrs slower... Like others have said, exxtropolating a weather model is always dangerous becuase you have to make assumtions that may not be right, we'll see. Of course the models make assumptions using equations that may not be true also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS Initialization. Here we go...this thread is going to be long! not if it shows what the 18z gfs showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS Initialization. Here we go...this thread is going to be long! NOUS42 KWNO 220134ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0133Z WED DEC 22 2010 THE 00Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION HAS STARTED AND IS RUNNING ON TIME. OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE FOR NAM INGEST INCLUDED 12 ALASKAN...30 CANADIAN...71 CONUS...6 MEXICAN...AND 2 CARIBBEAN STATIONS. 00Z NAM RAOB RECAP... FFC/72215 - PURGED TEMP/DWPT 746-617 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. BMX/72230 - PURGED TEMP/DWPT 805-791 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. RNK/72318 - PURGED TEMP/DWPT 743-720 MB...WET BULB EFFECT. GDH/04320 - PURGED ALL DWPTS...BAD DATA. OME/70200 - MISSED THE NAM. ASY/70414 - MISSED THE NAM. ANN/70398 - GROUND EQUIPMENT FAILURE...CODE 10142. $$ HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Radio show is on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 very reasonable angd good post Sounds logical to me! But still, you have to like the fact that the Euro/GEM have been pretty consistent! How many times in the last 10 years has the GFS squashed everything to the South and did not verify that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 since you said you'll be around for the 0z runs, they should get you on the radio show. I guess I could but what more would I add. There's enough mets on .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I guess I could but what more would I add. There's enough mets on .... Don't sell yourself short... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Don't sell yourself short... They got this... Anyway, I am loving the "shorter than normal wavelengths" for late December for this situation. I just hope the fish don't enjoy the payoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Anyone remember when at 12z FRI the GFS had the s/w over E MO? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 00z GFS looks slower at 500 and a tad stronger. So far so good I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 IMO, at 500 gfs looks very similar positioning wise to 18z. At 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The slowing trend continues. 0z GFS about an hour or two slower than 18z and a few hours behind 12z (based on the positioning of the s/w) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The slowing trend continues. 0z GFS about an hour or two slower than 18z and a few hours behind 12z (based on the positioning of the s/w) its really just the GFS trending towards the EURO camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The slowing trend continues. 0z GFS about an hour or two slower than 18z and a few hours behind 12z (based on the positioning of the s/w) Yes it's becoming clear that it was the right move a few days ago to adjust the speed of the s/w based on the blocking. The GFS was aligned with the NOGAPS on speed 2-3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 GFS is deff slower and a tad farther south as compared to 18z. Open wave w/ vort max over West Central AZ at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 its really just the GFS trending towards the EURO camp. or the camps trending together.. gotta wait at least 1 more run for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run is a huge leap to the EURO. I have it through 69h and it is trying to close off again over the Red River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 jesus the diff at 0z 66h and 18z 72 hr are amazinf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Open wave but SLP near TX coast 75-78h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 12z Christmas morning... New Orleans SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm comparing the 00z GFS with 12z GFS and 00z NAM. Everything I've looked at so far seems to be a step toward the 00z NAM solution. Not alot but noticable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run is a huge leap to the EURO. I have it through 69h and it is trying to close off again over the Red River. It's just not quite there with the heights in the northern stream so far. The Euro is a good bit more phased than the GFS and that's what helps it bring the surface low up the coast as it gets captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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