pojrzsho Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 wow, ready to blow, looks good and dead duck within 5 posts.....i guess there really is a lot of room for interpretation here? It's like Euro and GFS. Wes seems like "not all good things", and Analog is encouraged. Help a novice out here Mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That is amazing agreement.......ie a good thing!! I gotta re do the rule since am the One that devleoped it MANY years ago but the EE rule in this case the NAM ECM rule appears to be working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Not all good things, at 84 hours there isn't even an 850 low over ar and the winds are still northerly with cold advection over dc. This run of the nam would be a dead duck. Agreed looked ok through 78, but by 84 it seems clear that the whole trough is way too positve tilt as phasing occurs, due to the lingering confluence out in front not allowing any ridging to build ahead of the trough. I hate to say it but kinda looks like the GFS just 12 hrs slower... Like others have said, exxtropolating a weather model is always dangerous becuase you have to make assumtions that may not be right, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 18Z gfs massive bust coming COMPARE 18Z GFS 84 HRS 0Z NAM 78 HRS Great post and I have now been convinced that the GFS is a piece of turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That is amazing agreement.......ie a good thing!! Yeah,I like what I am seeing so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Atlantic lows if you ask me often move out faster than they are modeled to, we had cases last winter where it looked like they'd be an issue and they wound up not being so...keep in mind, despite the misconception by most, it was not the Atlantic low that caused the 2/6 storm to not come up the coast....I'd be more concerned if we had the insane Davis Strait block we did last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I would suspect that 6 hrs later when that northern energy gets into the trough, fun would start remember, the Euro didn't have the SLP off the SC coast until 120 hrs, 24 hours after the end of this 84 hr NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Yeah, I probably should have waited. I didn't realize the Euro had it in the same spot. We should be good based on t hat..... Yeah, I just wish Wes was on board. The fact that he's not liking the run still is concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 That damn N Atlantic low may doom us...that sucker has gotta move out of the way yes BUT .... THAT is was cuases the phase and the system to slow down and if the 12z euor is right stall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the NAM at 84 looks solid. living up here, i have to keep a close eye on the vortex. its not like the vortex of last season, not at all....which was often over maine or my head. compared to last season major events, there is a LOT more space....im speaking comparitively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM Gives the 50/50 low a lot more time to move far enough away that it won't smother the storm. However the 50/50 low does not make good use of this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 How can we say the vortex is a problem at this juncture when it looks identical to the Euro so far? Let's not extrapolate the NAM too much. Good post here, Phin. Things are lining up, but lets not pull our hair out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 though the nam hs trended towards the euro, i think there are subtle differences over the great lakes at 500 and over new england where there is a little more of trough hanging back so I guess we'll disagree. Hopefully, I'm wrong. Wes the fact that you arent liking this model run, and more specifically, have serious concerns about this storm gives me more pause than any one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Agreed looked ok through 78, but by 84 it seems clear that the whole trough is way too positve tilt as phasing occurs, due to the lingering confluence out in front not allowing any ridging to build ahead of the trough. I hate to say it but kinda looks like the GFS just 12 hrs slower... Like others have said, exxtropolating a weather model is always dangerous becuase you have to make assumtions that may not be right, we'll see. First off we were just shown how different it is from GFS. Way more south and way more digging. If anything it has shown very good agreement with the Euro particularly with the ridge that helps phase and bomb the monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 though the nam hs trended towards the euro, i think there are subtle differences over the great lakes at 500 and over new england where there is a little more of trough hanging back so I guess we'll disagree. Hopefully, I'm wrong. Wes, I will always defer to you. Don't read my post as being argumentative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Great post and I have now been convinced that the GFS is a piece of turd. STOP THAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 no one can deny that the Euro has been leading the pack of models, with everything moving toward it GFS will certainly follow suit tonight, maybe not as good as the NAM, but it will look more like the Euro run of 12Z than the GFS run of 12Z, I'm bettin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 First off we were just shown how different it is from GFS. Way more south and way more digging. If anything it has shown very good agreement with the Euro particularly with the ridge that helps phase and bomb the monster storm. Well I meant more with the positve tilt to the trough, as well as the fast absorbtion fo the sourthern wave into the northern stream trough. If you look at the 12z Euro at 96 hr, the southern wave is still a distinct feature, the NAM doesnt have it to the same extent. All the models have the western ridging thats really not the problem here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Now let's see if the GFS can pull it's head out of it's _____. Nam at 84hr. is always poo pooed....unless it shows something potentially great, and has a big brother standing next to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well I meant more with the positve tilt to the trough, as well as the fast absorbtion fo the sourthern wave into the northern stream trough. If you look at the 12z Euro at 96 hr, the southern wave is still a distinct feature, the NAM doesnt have it to the same extent. All the models have the western ridging thats really not the problem here. you are correct that the NAM is NOT Identical but that THAT is a NOT the issue is it? did you NOT see the Maps I posted on the previous page compariing the 18z gfs NO storm NO s/w in the STJ 500 MB map to the nam at the same time frame? THAT is what Folks are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Great post and I have now been convinced that the GFS is a piece of turd. good ole wiggum ANYWAY folks don't forget the radio show at 10:30 with Dt, Raleigh wx, foothills nc, and Orhweatherman http://www.blogtalkradio.com/americanwx/2010/12/22/special-radio-show-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Wes, I will always defer to you. Don't read my post as being argumentative. I'm in minority so I could be wrong and am going to bed anyway. Enjoy the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The Atlantic lows if you ask me often move out faster than they are modeled to, we had cases last winter where it looked like they'd be an issue and they wound up not being so...keep in mind, despite the misconception by most, it was not the Atlantic low that caused the 2/6 storm to not come up the coast....I'd be more concerned if we had the insane Davis Strait block we did last week. Good post...If anything the Atlantic low is helping by forcing the PJ s/w south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Not trying to be negative as I really would like an HECS, but from an unbiased point of view, the difference in the 700 mb RH fields at 84h 0z and 96h 12z Euro doesnt look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 I'm in minority so I could be wrong and am going to bed anyway. Enjoy the runs. May you wake up to a consensus blizzard and in much better health!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 you are correct that the NAM is NOT Identical but that THAT is a NOT the issue is it? did you NOT see the Maps I posted on the previous page compariing the 18z gfs NO storm NO s/w in the STJ 500 MB map to the nam at the same time frame? THAT is what Folks are talking about Oh I agree with you there, just didnt understand everyones blind assesment that it looks identical to the Euro, which it does not. NAM to me looks like a compromise between the two, maybe with a lean to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Well I meant more with the positve tilt to the trough, as well as the fast absorbtion fo the sourthern wave into the northern stream trough. If you look at the 12z Euro at 96 hr, the southern wave is still a distinct feature, the NAM doesnt have it to the same extent. All the models have the western ridging thats really not the problem here. It's the 84 hour nam and in much closer agreement with the euro than the GFS which just has an extremely weak vort well north. At this point good to see the NAM much closer to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Good post...If anything the Atlantic low is helping by forcing the PJ s/w south. since you said you'll be around for the 0z runs, they should get you on the radio show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Oh I agree with you there, just didnt understand everyones blind assesment that it looks identical to the Euro, which it does not. NAM to me looks like a compromise between the two, maybe with a lean to the Euro. You will never see a map look identical to another model's depiction, it's a mathematical impossibility (well, almost.) The fact remains that the NAM and the Euro look pretty damned close. Not exact obviously, but close. Certainly nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Oh I agree with you there, just didnt understand everyones blind assesment that it looks identical to the Euro, which it does not. NAM to me looks like a compromise between the two, maybe with a lean to the Euro. At 84 hours out, two seperate models, two seperate run times, two seperate physics packages, and different resolutions, the agreement (albeit, of course, not exact) is quite amazing. It dramatically shows that the GFS is on very thin ice....wrt it's last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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