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0z Models 12/22/10


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Guest someguy

That is amazing agreement.......ie a good thing!!

I gotta re do the rule since am the One that devleoped it MANY years ago

but the EE rule in this case the NAM ECM rule appears to be working

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Not all good things, at 84 hours there isn't even an 850 low over ar and the winds are still northerly with cold advection over dc. This run of the nam would be a dead duck.

Agreed looked ok through 78, but by 84 it seems clear that the whole trough is way too positve tilt as phasing occurs, due to the lingering confluence out in front not allowing any ridging to build ahead of the trough. I hate to say it but kinda looks like the GFS just 12 hrs slower...

Like others have said, exxtropolating a weather model is always dangerous becuase you have to make assumtions that may not be right, we'll see.

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The Atlantic lows if you ask me often move out faster than they are modeled to, we had cases last winter where it looked like they'd be an issue and they wound up not being so...keep in mind, despite the misconception by most, it was not the Atlantic low that caused the 2/6 storm to not come up the coast....I'd be more concerned if we had the insane Davis Strait block we did last week.

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Guest someguy

That damn N Atlantic low may doom us...that sucker has gotta move out of the way

yes BUT .... THAT is was cuases the phase and the system to slow down and if the 12z euor is right stall

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though the nam hs trended towards the euro, i think there are subtle differences over the great lakes at 500 and over new england where there is a little more of trough hanging back so I guess we'll disagree. Hopefully, I'm wrong.

Wes the fact that you arent liking this model run, and more specifically, have serious concerns about this storm gives me more pause than any one model run.

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Agreed looked ok through 78, but by 84 it seems clear that the whole trough is way too positve tilt as phasing occurs, due to the lingering confluence out in front not allowing any ridging to build ahead of the trough. I hate to say it but kinda looks like the GFS just 12 hrs slower...

Like others have said, exxtropolating a weather model is always dangerous becuase you have to make assumtions that may not be right, we'll see.

First off we were just shown how different it is from GFS. Way more south and way more digging. If anything it has shown very good agreement with the Euro particularly with the ridge that helps phase and bomb the monster storm.

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First off we were just shown how different it is from GFS. Way more south and way more digging. If anything it has shown very good agreement with the Euro particularly with the ridge that helps phase and bomb the monster storm.

Well I meant more with the positve tilt to the trough, as well as the fast absorbtion fo the sourthern wave into the northern stream trough. If you look at the 12z Euro at 96 hr, the southern wave is still a distinct feature, the NAM doesnt have it to the same extent.

All the models have the western ridging thats really not the problem here.

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Guest someguy

Well I meant more with the positve tilt to the trough, as well as the fast absorbtion fo the sourthern wave into the northern stream trough. If you look at the 12z Euro at 96 hr, the southern wave is still a distinct feature, the NAM doesnt have it to the same extent.

All the models have the western ridging thats really not the problem here.

you are correct that the NAM is NOT Identical but that THAT is a NOT the issue is it?

did you NOT see the Maps I posted on the previous page compariing the 18z gfs NO storm NO s/w in the STJ 500 MB map to the nam at the same time frame?

THAT is what Folks are talking about

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The Atlantic lows if you ask me often move out faster than they are modeled to, we had cases last winter where it looked like they'd be an issue and they wound up not being so...keep in mind, despite the misconception by most, it was not the Atlantic low that caused the 2/6 storm to not come up the coast....I'd be more concerned if we had the insane Davis Strait block we did last week.

Good post...If anything the Atlantic low is helping by forcing the PJ s/w south.

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you are correct that the NAM is NOT Identical but that THAT is a NOT the issue is it?

did you NOT see the Maps I posted on the previous page compariing the 18z gfs NO storm NO s/w in the STJ 500 MB map to the nam at the same time frame?

THAT is what Folks are talking about

Oh I agree with you there, just didnt understand everyones blind assesment that it looks identical to the Euro, which it does not.

NAM to me looks like a compromise between the two, maybe with a lean to the Euro.

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Well I meant more with the positve tilt to the trough, as well as the fast absorbtion fo the sourthern wave into the northern stream trough. If you look at the 12z Euro at 96 hr, the southern wave is still a distinct feature, the NAM doesnt have it to the same extent.

All the models have the western ridging thats really not the problem here.

It's the 84 hour nam and in much closer agreement with the euro than the GFS which just has an extremely weak vort well north. At this point good to see the NAM much closer to the Euro.

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Oh I agree with you there, just didnt understand everyones blind assesment that it looks identical to the Euro, which it does not.

NAM to me looks like a compromise between the two, maybe with a lean to the Euro.

You will never see a map look identical to another model's depiction, it's a mathematical impossibility (well, almost.) The fact remains that the NAM and the Euro look pretty damned close. Not exact obviously, but close. Certainly nothing like the GFS.

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Oh I agree with you there, just didnt understand everyones blind assesment that it looks identical to the Euro, which it does not.

NAM to me looks like a compromise between the two, maybe with a lean to the Euro.

At 84 hours out, two seperate models, two seperate run times, two seperate physics packages, and different resolutions, the agreement (albeit, of course, not exact) is quite amazing. It dramatically shows that the GFS is on very thin ice....wrt it's last few runs.

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