0z Models 12/22/10

[Martin]

You know even if this doesn't verify this is a run for the history books for my area. Just epic!

Screw the bus. We need something bigger!

[A-L-E-X]

It was PD II that screwed RIC....went from 12-18" progged to 3-5" of SN/IP.

February 1983 was an absolute crusher for Richmond with an official total of 18".

January 1996 was not a bad around 10" officially, but there was a prolonged period of IP that reduced accumulations.

March 1993, well we got 2" up front and another 2" with backlash....not a good storm.

Yea, the usual rule of thumb is if a storm is good for Richmond it usually isnt good for NYC and points north. You usually need a mega-overrunning event with an extreme arctic block or a deep southern phaser that tracks all the way up the coast to be good for both.

You guys did really well last winter

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

HPC going with the EURO as they should.

...SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: 00Z/22 ECMWF

THE NAM TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...WITH SLIGHTLY

LESS AMPLITUDE BY THE TIME IT REACHES LOUISIANA BY THE END OF THE

PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BEGIN TO PULL AHEAD OF THE NAM AND

ECMWF LATE DAY 3 ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THE GFS SHOWING LESS

AMPLITUDE LIKE THE NAM. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE

SLOW...SUPPRESSED SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...A BIAS OF THE MODEL.

THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TRENDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST

SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF

HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THREE RUNS IN A ROW...AND WAS ALSO THE

FIRST MODEL TO BREAK TOWARD A SLOWER...MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION.

WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON IT.

[weatherweather]

anyone got ggem ensembles?

[WeSuck]

You know even if this doesn't verify this is a run for the history books for my area. Just epic!

Screw the bus. We need something bigger!

:lmao::lmao:

[ORH_wxman]

Yup, and I was wondering, Will, if it phased further north because the nao wasnt that negative? Maybe it would have phased further south of the NAO/AO had been more negative and caused an even more extreme solution.

The NAO was extremely negative for March '01...monster Davis Straight block. Its also a bit later in the season where wavelengths are shortening. But that system was pretty much a fail from the beginning for the M.A. because it was primarily northern stream driven....a glorified Miller B.

[psuhoffman]

euro MOS

IAD: 1.01

DCA: .98

RIC:1.73

BWI: .98

PHL: 1.05

NYC: 1.1

UNV : .73

HGR: 1.01

AVP: .8

BOS: 2.04

[A-L-E-X]

The NAO was extremely negative for March '01...monster Davis Straight block. Its also a bit later in the season where wavelengths are shortening. But that system was pretty much a fail from the beginning for the M.A. because it was primarily northern stream driven....a glorified Miller B.

If this storm works out, it could be great for everyone. Despite people saying it "phases too far south" those QPF totals for NYC and BOS are very good-- if anything close to accurate.

[HM]

March '01 eventually did phase pretty strong, but it just happened further north than the models had it, so it ended up being a monster New England storm.

Yes and this was by no means me making a storm analog either. I was just saying the last time I saw an ECMWF run like this. If the March 2001 modeling analogy holds, the GFS at 72h will bury the Mid Atlantic...HPC at that time will say one of the worst storms ever is coming...and then a slow shift north begins.

[dan88]

3z SREFs coming in, through 30 hours, significantly slower + stronger with the energy..

[psuhoffman]

ACY: 1.83 but ground temps are around 34-36* for most of the event...

SBY: 2.14 but similar problem, 2m temps are +3.4 for the height of the event

more inland locations are fine and H8 temps are 3-4 below along the coast but the euro depicts ground temp problems with the east wind off the ocean.

Please I am not saying this is true, just giving model output.

[Cheeznado]

There are a couple of GFS ensemble members that have a good storm, but the rest- meh. Still not 100% on board- I have some nagging doubts. One more Euro run needs to have this extreme scenario for me to totally buy in.

[A-L-E-X]

I agree Cheez, plus experience has taught us not to buy into any extreme scenarios until within 48 hours of start time.

[HM]

You know what I like about this one over March 2001?

This time, the s/w is well south and develops a substantial Gulf-Southeast low. The Ontario wave that drops in is not some monster PV that forces phasing north. However, our current situation is very sensitive. One little screw up with the phasing process and this storm is out to sea.

[Dino]

Will say it for third day in a row now...."Chesapeake Bay FTW"

Bay Effect snow and Deformation Bands like a MOFO!

[ORH_wxman]

Yes and this was by no means me making a storm analog either. I was just saying the last time I saw an ECMWF run like this. If the March 2001 modeling analogy holds, the GFS at 72h will bury the Mid Atlantic...HPC at that time will say one of the worst storms ever is coming...and then a slow shift north begins.

I'm skeptical of the huge amped up solutions like we are seeing from the EC right now...despite it being the best model. I would love for them to verify because the 12z run gave me 30" and this run gives me 20"+...but we still have pretty potent westerlies from the Nina....the ridge is very strong but all this wanted to move east despite the block....without the Nina and the block, this type of phase would probably send the low up the Hudson Valley.

We'll have to see how this plays out in the next 48 hours, because my hunch is that the EC is MORE correct than than the GFS or other solutions, but not 100% correct...i.e. we see a 75/25 solution in favor of the EC which is obviously east. DT and I talked about on the radio show tonight how far east the ridge was in the rockies...which doesn't allow for many westerly solutions.

[psuhoffman]

last round of data for tonight

CHO: 1.07

RDU: 1.94

ROA: 0.79

MDT: 0.82

TTN: 1.01

HFD: 1.42

PVD: 2.03 (they go to rain for a short period it looks like)

ORH: 1.85

Hope that helped some.

[A-L-E-X]

I'm skeptical of the huge amped up solutions like we are seeing from the EC right now...despite it being the best model. I would love for them to verify because the 12z run gave me 30" and this run gives me 20"+...but we still have pretty potent westerlies from the Nina....the ridge is very strong but all this wanted to move east despite the block....without the Nina and the block, this type of phase would probably send the low up the Hudson Valley.

We'll have to see how this plays out in the next 48 hours, because my hunch is that the EC is MORE correct than than the GFS or other solutions, but not 100% correct...i.e. we see a 75/25 solution in favor of the EC which is obviously east. DT and I talked about on the radio show tonight how far east the ridge was in the rockies...which doesn't allow for many westerly solutions.

Interesting take, Will. Let's play hypothetical scenarios for a sec-- if this nina had been weak like 66-67 or 95-96, would this have been a cutter?

[HM]

I'm skeptical of the huge amped up solutions like we are seeing from the EC right now...despite it being the best model. I would love for them to verify because the 12z run gave me 30" and this run gives me 20"+...but we still have pretty potent westerlies from the Nina....the ridge is very strong but all this wanted to move east despite the block....without the Nina and the block, this type of phase would probably send the low up the Hudson Valley.

We'll have to see how this plays out in the next 48 hours, because my hunch is that the EC is MORE correct than than the GFS or other solutions, but not 100% correct...i.e. we see a 75/25 solution in favor of the EC which is obviously east. DT and I talked about on the radio show tonight how far east the ridge was in the rockies...which doesn't allow for many westerly solutions.

Yeah I get what you're saying. There is a sensitive balance here between the fire hose from La Niña pushing planetary waves east that ultimately get dismantled from its power and the rapid phasing of waves which allows for a more wrapped up solution. This delicate balance is creating a unique monster phasing event that may stay all snow up and down the East Coast. Usually, one of these features over-dominates causing either an inland runner/over-phased bomb or an out to sea system.

In my opinion, a lesser phase job from the current amazing ECMWF run would actually be quite the shift in sensible weather. I think as soon as you mess with the delicate extreme phase, this becomes a simple SE winter storm that potential grazes new england...nothing you guys can't handle, too.

So I think the flow chart goes something like this:

1. ECMWF strong phased idea / major event

2. less phased = run-of-the-mill system for far SE new england and perhaps a significant SE US event

3. Out to sea with no phase.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah I get what you're saying. There is a sensitive balance here between the fire hose from La Niña pushing planetary waves east that ultimately get dismantled from its power and the rapid phasing of waves which allows for a more wrapped up solution. This delicate balance is creating a unique monster phasing event that may stay all snow up and down the East Coast. Usually, one of these features over-dominates causing either an inland runner/over-phased bomb or an out to sea system.

In my opinion, a lesser phase job from the current amazing ECMWF run would actually be quite the shift in sensible weather. I think as soon as you mess with the delicate extreme phase, this becomes a simple SE winter storm that potential grazes new england...nothing you guys can't handle, too.

So I think the flow chart goes something like this:

1. ECMWF strong phased idea / major event

2. less phased = run-of-the-mill system for far SE new england and perhaps a significant SE US event

3. Out to sea with no phase.

I've been thinking #2.....another moderate cc special.

[ORH_wxman]

Interesting take, Will. Let's play hypothetical scenarios for a sec-- if this nina had been weak like 66-67 or 95-96, would this have been a cutter?

Impossible to say because the Atlantic is dominating the eastern pattern right now....but there is still some influence from the PAC. In a weaker Nina, you get less influence from the PAC, so no, I don't think this would have to be a cutter in that scenario despite the fact it might be slower....but it def could be. Even if that sounds a bit counter intuitive. The ridge placement could be further west in a weaker Nina....who knows. But the block could also be stronger in a weaker ENSO state.

Its very hard to play the speculation game.

[HM]

I've been thinking #2.....another moderate cc special.

Yes and this would be a significant disappointment for a lot of people in between you and the SE USA. So, it is either all phased up and a crazy storm or nothing for some people.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes and this would be a significant disappointment for a lot of people in between you and the SE USA. So, it is either all phased up and a crazy storm or nothing for some people.

I'm not sure I buy the "all or nothing" scenario...at least in terms of sensible wx.

Whats to prevent this from making a late hook and giving BOS 10" of snow vs a hugely amped up solution or a weak scraper? All it has to do is phase a bit late like the GGEM. Not saying that is likely, but it doesn't seem that weird to me. Those solutions are naturally rare given climo, but so is a bomb that gives Richmond 24" of snow.

[HM]

Impossible to say because the Atlantic is dominating the eastern pattern right now....but there is still some influence from the PAC. In a weaker Nina, you get less influence from the PAC, so no, I don't think this would have to be a cutter in that scenario despite the fact it might be slower....but it def could be. Even if that sounds a bit counter intuitive. The ridge placement could be further west in a weaker Nina....who knows. But the block could also be stronger in a weaker ENSO state.

Its very hard to play the speculation game.

Will, you're right because then you wouldn't know if we would have gotten here in the first place to have this crazy scenario. But assuming we got to this point somehow, we would likely get a bigger MJO response and probably a more Aleutian low/West Coast high setup. Would this then potentially setup a more inland runner scenario that jumps to the coast? I can't believe I'm going to say this but I think the NE PAC low is actually helping out the chances here for a memorable phasing event.

[A-L-E-X]

Impossible to say because the Atlantic is dominating the eastern pattern right now....but there is still some influence from the PAC. In a weaker Nina, you get less influence from the PAC, so no, I don't think this would have to be a cutter in that scenario despite the fact it might be slower....but it def could be. Even if that sounds a bit counter intuitive. The ridge placement could be further west in a weaker Nina....who knows. But the block could also be stronger in a weaker ENSO state.

Its very hard to play the speculation game.

Thanks, Will. In general weak la ninas after el ninos seem to be great for us, and perhaps the reason why is what you said-- the right mix of pacific conditions and blocking enhances the chances of the right kind of track happening with enough cold air in place. A weak la nina might have been good for last week's snowstorm and if this doesnt end up happening and misses us to the east also, perhaps it would have been a better track for us in a weak la nina.

[HM]

I'm not sure I buy the "all or nothing" scenario...at least in terms of sensible wx.

Whats to prevent this from making a late hook and giving BOS 10" of snow vs a hugely amped up solution or a weak scraper? All it has to do is phase a bit late like the GGEM. Not saying that is likely, but it doesn't seem that weird to me. Those solutions are naturally rare given climo, but so is a bomb that gives Richmond 24" of snow.

Will that's what I'm saying actually. The all or nothing is not for SE new england. The all or nothing is for people like me or Randy.

[Confuzzled]

150 heading due east

Due east yes but it only looks like it moves 100 miles in the next 18 hrs...

Total precip map at hr180 looks amazing!!!

[A-L-E-X]

I'm not sure I buy the "all or nothing" scenario...at least in terms of sensible wx.

Whats to prevent this from making a late hook and giving BOS 10" of snow vs a hugely amped up solution or a weak scraper? All it has to do is phase a bit late like the GGEM. Not saying that is likely, but it doesn't seem that weird to me. Those solutions are naturally rare given climo, but so is a bomb that gives Richmond 24" of snow.

It sure is possible-- I mean this last storm was much less intense than this one is progged to be and didnt it deliver a foot of snow on the cape? But a Vet Day 1987 type scenario (snow south and snow north, but little in between) would make a lot of people disappointed-- not that the storm cares lol.

[nzucker]

Will, you're right because then you wouldn't know if we would have gotten here in the first place to have this crazy scenario. But assuming we got to this point somehow, we would likely get a bigger MJO response and probably a more Aleutian low/West Coast high setup. Would this then potentially setup a more inland runner scenario that jumps to the coast? I can't believe I'm going to say this but I think the NE PAC low is actually helping out the chances here for a memorable phasing event.

Isn't the NE PAC low pushing the ridge axis east though which makes it hard to get an event that hits the coast solidly?

[ORH_wxman]

Will that's what I'm saying actually. The all or nothing is not for SE new england. The all or nothing is for people like me or Randy.

Ah ok, got ya. Well I probably agree there. It has to amp up pretty good to slam the DC-PHL corridor since this storm wants to sort of start a wide turn to the east and then hook north. It needs to be pretty severe north turn like the Euro to hammer the further west I-95 cities like DCA and PHL vs the south towns (like RDU/ORF/RIC) and further north and east towns like BOS.

DT calls it a Norfolk to Boston storm when it does that.