0z Models 12/22/10

[Guest someguy]

I am out...

I cannot wait to see how folks freak over the 6z gfs taking the low,,... and the lesson learned her over the past 24 hrs

IF the 6z gfs show the Low track Oh I dont know going to to bermuda or Chicago or Mars

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anyone see the 6z GFS AT 132 HOURS ????

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/fp0_132.shtml

[Midlo Snow Maker]

ji you have them mos totals yet? thats why i let you back posting at 12:30

[green tube]

you do realize this is the 2 run in a row with the EXACT same solution and 3 of the last 4 runs with a Major hit right?

b/c its clear from your post you are NOT aware of this

DT.... your LordShip.... king of all god's-snow-anus-ville......... what are the chances of this thing verifying anywhere near what is being depicted on the 0z euro?

thank you.

god bless.

we all get to breathe for another 12 hours.

[Dcwx]

you do realize this is the 2 run in a row with the EXACT same solution and 3 of the last 4 runs with a Major hit right?

b/c its clear from your post you are NOT aware of this

With some variation yes. Previous runs moved the low more north near NYC rather than further East outside of Delmarva. I am not saying that the Euro tapping onto something consistently is a bad thing, lol. I am saying that for anyone remotely inland and north of southern VA(such as DC) that the margin of error here is low, especially if we buy the tightly wrapped QPF around the storm.

Basically every other reputable model is showing something OTS or east. Are they trending better? Yes, but we have not even seen the energy in the Pacific reach California yet. It's just a day or two early. I am still looking for one other supporting model.

IMO if you live from Central.Eastern NC to Central/Eastern VA I think you are going to see some good snows regardless.

[A-L-E-X]

Seriously; this is unfathomable.

I cant remember the last time that this actually happened. Most of the HECS we've seen have just brushed you. Im thinking Feb 1983, Jan 1996, PD2. This almost sounds like a further east version of March 1993 with that kind of expanse in terms of snow coverage, plus a stalling out (and maybe looping) feature.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I am out...

I cannot wait to see how folks freak over the 6z gfs taking the low,,... and the lesson learned her over the past 24 hrs

IF the 6z gfs show the Low track Oh I dont know going to to bermuda or Chicago or Mars

later

great disco today heated or not i think everyone loves the passion you have for weather and you might have prevented a few suicides too

[A-L-E-X]

With some variation yes. Previous runs moved the low more north near NYC rather than further East outside of Delmarva. I am not saying that the Euro tapping onto something consistently is a bad thing, lol. I am saying that for anyone remotely inland and north of southern VA(such as DC) that the margin of error here is low, especially if we buy the tightly wrapped QPF around the storm.

Basically every other reputable model is showing something OTS or east. Are they trending better? Yes, but we have not even seen the energy in the Pacific reach California yet. It's just a day or two early. I am still looking for one other supporting model.

IMO if you live from Central.Eastern NC to Central/Eastern VA I think you are going to see some good snows regardless.

If this works out, its a big win for the Euro. Didnt Jan 1996 have the same kind of set up in terms of the EURO latching onto the correct solution early and the other models trending to it? The GFS was the AVN back then, but if memory serves, that did not have that storm making it up here until the night before it started.

Jan 1996 created the E/E rule (Euro/ETA, which was the NAM back then.)

[40/70 Benchmark]

I hope I don't get hit with a 5 post leash for this, but is this similar to a 1993, displaced 100 miles east....go easy on me.

[Fozz]

As well as the State College people who 9.5/10 times get screwed out of an all encompassing RIC-BOS snow event.

You mean the DC-BOS events?

Richmond has been screwed more than anyone else from 2003 to 2008.

This run is a NESIS 5.

[Dalfy]

Now thats a BEAUTIFUL map!.. Hopefully all stays the same with the models after the s/w actually gets to the US and gives us some better/more accurate runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I cant remember the last time that this actually happened. Most of the HECS we've seen have just brushed you. Im thinking Feb 1983, Jan 1996, PD2. This almost sounds like a further east version of March 1993 with that kind of expanse in terms of snow coverage, plus a stalling out (and maybe looping) feature.

Yea, March 1993 was progressive.

This seems too good to be true.

[A-L-E-X]

With some variation yes. Previous runs moved the low more north near NYC rather than further East outside of Delmarva. I am not saying that the Euro tapping onto something consistently is a bad thing, lol. I am saying that for anyone remotely inland and north of southern VA(such as DC) that the margin of error here is low, especially if we buy the tightly wrapped QPF around the storm.

Basically every other reputable model is showing something OTS or east. Are they trending better? Yes, but we have not even seen the energy in the Pacific reach California yet. It's just a day or two early. I am still looking for one other supporting model.

IMO if you live from Central.Eastern NC to Central/Eastern VA I think you are going to see some good snows regardless.

BTW if youre concerned about NYC, the best track for a slow moving noreaster coming up the coast for NYC is actually to have it "recurve" south of us (funny using that term for nontropical systems) at the latitude of Delaware, which is what Feb 93 and Jan 96 did.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

I hope I don't get hit with a 5 post leash for this, but is this similar to a 1993, displaced 100 miles east....go easy on me.

this is the thing a one hit so so post will not get you 5ppd, it's the repetetive oh my, how much, this suck, posts that will take care 40/70 i95 going to be a DISASTA

[A-L-E-X]

Yea, March 1993 was progressive.

This seems too good to be true.

Yea, I have a feeling we should just enjoy this depiction for now-- being 5 days away probably means it will change a bit between now and then lol.

March 1993 moving at December 1992 speeds does seem to be too good to be true. It's the most extreme solution possible and if it verifies we should worship the Euro from now thru eternity lol.

[A-L-E-X]

this is the thing a one hit so so post will not get you 5ppd, it's the repetetive oh my, how much, this suck, posts that will take care 40/70 i95 going to be a DISASTA

Poor Colin

[ArtRosen]

I am out...

I cannot wait to see how folks freak over the 6z gfs taking the low,,... and the lesson learned her over the past 24 hrs

IF the 6z gfs show the Low track Oh I dont know going to to bermuda or Chicago or Mars

Thank you for your help, DT. I very much appreciated your analysis during the radio show. Looking forward to more tomorrow.

[HM]

Don't mean to bring up a sore subject but this run also reminds me of what the ECMWF did at this range with the March 2001 storm. It showed an epic phase that sat near the Mid Atlantic for a loooong time.

[A-L-E-X]

You mean the DC-BOS events?

Richmond has been screwed more than anyone else from 2003 to 2008.

This run is a NESIS 5.

Yea, easy. I mean PD2 and Feb 1983 were NESIS 4s and both screwed Richmond (Feb 1983 also screwed Boston-- relatively speaking.) Jan 1996 and March 1993 were NESIS 5s and both screwed Boston. If this one verifies, it might need it's own category lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

this is the thing a one hit so so post will not get you 5ppd, it's the repetetive oh my, how much, this suck, posts that will take care 40/70 i95 going to be a DISASTA

LOL I know...I was being a bit sarcastic.

I think it's also prudent to wait until the thread dies down before interjecting with questions like that.

[A-L-E-X]

Don't mean to bring up a sore subject but this run also reminds me of what the ECMWF did at this range with the March 2001 storm. It showed an epic phase that sat near the Mid Atlantic for a loooong time.

Thanks HM, this needs to be filed under the "what can go wrong category" lol. I wonder how neg the nao/ao were back then and if 3/01 had a phase being depicted somewhat north of where this one is. Also, I remember the GFS/AVN still clung to the superphase idea, even when the other models had already bailed.

[Ababa]

Yea, easy. I mean PD2 and Feb 1983 were NESIS 4s and both screwed Richmond (Feb 1983 also screwed Boston-- relatively speaking.) Jan 1996 and March 1993 were NESIS 5s and both screwed Boston. If this one verifies, it might need it's own category lol.

Boston rec'd 18" in Jan 1996....I hardly call that "screwed."

[Sn0waddict]

Don't mean to bring up a sore subject but this run also reminds me of what the ECMWF did at this range with the March 2001 storm. It showed an epic phase that sat near the Mid Atlantic for a loooong time.

Should be an interesting day tomorrow though. At this point it's kind of hard not to go with the model that has been the most consistent...

[A-L-E-X]

LOL I know...I was being a bit sarcastic.

I think it's also prudent to wait until the thread dies down before interjecting with questions like that.

Yea, late night banter can be a bit more relaxed and informal lol.

[A-L-E-X]

Boston rec'd 18" in Jan 1996....I hardly call that "screwed."

I meant to add "relatively" to that also-- in terms of areas further south getting 2 feet plus.

[ozzie]

why is the precip shield so strnage looking with a strnage v formation around baltimore with under an inch of qpf in a near triple phaser does that make sense?

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks HM, this needs to be filed under the "what can go wrong category" lol. I wonder how neg the nao/ao were back then and if 3/01 had a phase being depicted somewhat north of where this one is. Also, I remember the GFS/AVN still clung to the superphase idea, even when the other models had already bailed.

March '01 eventually did phase pretty strong, but it just happened further north than the models had it, so it ended up being a monster New England storm.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

LOL I know...I was being a bit sarcastic.

I think it's also prudent to wait until the thread dies down before interjecting with questions like that.

agreed

[RIC Airport]

Yea, easy. I mean PD2 and Feb 1983 were NESIS 4s and both screwed Richmond (Feb 1983 also screwed Boston-- relatively speaking.) Jan 1996 and March 1993 were NESIS 5s and both screwed Boston. If this one verifies, it might need it's own category lol.

It was PD II that screwed RIC....went from 12-18" progged to 3-5" of SN/IP.

February 1983 was an absolute crusher for Richmond with an official total of 18".

January 1996 was not a bad around 10" officially, but there was a prolonged period of IP that reduced accumulations.

March 1993, well we got 2" up front and another 2" with backlash....not a good storm.

[Mencken_Fan]

Will say it for third day in a row now...."Chesapeake Bay FTW"

[A-L-E-X]

March '01 eventually did phase pretty strong, but it just happened further north than the models had it, so it ended up being a monster New England storm.

Yup, and I was wondering, Will, if it phased further north because the nao wasnt that negative? Maybe it would have phased further south of the NAO/AO had been more negative and caused an even more extreme solution.