0z Models 12/22/10

[Dcwx]

There is no way DC is only 1" QPF on this run with a stalled out low off of Hatteras... but even if it is, I would take it!

I still am not on board with the Euro given its southwest bias. I think the final solution will be somewhere east of this but it all depends on the strength of the low. The timing is right, but we also need a very potent system which the Euro is modeling but others have not agreed with.

I agree that there is some positive trending with other models, but inevitably there will be a compromise somewhere east of the OP Euro IMO.

[HM]

Amazing....

Yeah, this is close to a triple phaser. The Arctic air's raw temperatures are warmer than some of the beasts of the past. But damn is this one close.

[LehighValleyDad]

Anyone have any QPF for select cities? Just wondering how far north the heavy precip gets and how sharp the cutoff would be with this run taken verbatim?

All the 1996 references ..... as I recall that had a very sharp cutoff with Scranton, PA getting 20" and Binghamton, NY getting nearly zilch.

[Dr No]

There is no way DC is only 1" QPF on this run with a stalled out low off of Hatteras... but even if it is, I would take it!

I still am not on board with the Euro given its southwest bias. I think the final solution will be somewhere east of this but it all depends on the strength of the low. The timing is right, but we also need a very potent system which the Euro is modeling but others have not agreed with.

I agree that there is some positive trending with other models, but inevitably there will be a compromise somewhere east of the OP Euro IMO.

The vort timing is nearly spot on the other models through 72.

[ptb127]

There is no way DC is only 1" QPF on this run with a stalled out low off of Hatteras... but even if it is, I would take it!

I still am not on board with the Euro given its southwest bias. I think the final solution will be somewhere east of this but it all depends on the strength of the low. The timing is right, but we also need a very potent system which the Euro is modeling but others have not agreed with.

I agree that there is some positive trending with other models, but inevitably there will be a compromise somewhere east of the OP Euro IMO.

I've seen the euro lock on (which I think this is classified as such right now) and not change while all the other models begin to trend until they are correlated to the euro.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

0.50" line from near ash nc north to pit ne to ithaca ny

[SACRUS]

There is no way DC is only 1" QPF on this run with a stalled out low off of Hatteras... but even if it is, I would take it!

I still am not on board with the Euro given its southwest bias. I think the final solution will be somewhere east of this but it all depends on the strength of the low. The timing is right, but we also need a very potent system which the Euro is modeling but others have not agreed with.

I agree that there is some positive trending with other models, but inevitably there will be a compromise somewhere east of the OP Euro IMO.

ggem and uk were quite robust just east of the euro but still close enough for a near miss on the ggem.

[Ji]

In portions of NC and E VA, the ECMWF puts down 1.0-1.25" QPF in 6 hours. Does that constitute +SN?

Gfs zero qpf. Euro 1-2 feet. WTF

[WhiteoutWX]

In portions of NC and E VA, the ECMWF puts down 1.0-1.25" QPF in 6 hours. Does that constitute +SN?

This definately looks to be your Archembault (is that how you spell it? lol) event. Flow goes zonal by 168 hours as trough quickly exits east coast. Would look to be a sizable warmup after the event. Not that anyone cares about AFTER the event lol.

[Wow]

Any snow in N FL? that would make it a rare Florida to Maine storm

backlash snow.. yes

[A-L-E-X]

I can't quite call this a 3-stream phaser in that sense but this thing is damn close to being a triple phaser on this run. There is definitely 3 s/w phasing in with an amazing surface cyclone. I'm not sure yet if this is a triple phaser. The pocket of Arctic air at h85 is -12c at its coolest. This may be a hybrid triple phaser.

HM..... it doesnt feel right throwing out extreme analogs 5 days out, but what the hell. Do you see elements of March 1993 and December 1992 in this storm? March 1993 type intensity and southerly phase and December 1992 in terms of how it stalls out off the MA?

[Ji]

The hot cousin of March 2001?

[Midlo Snow Maker]

precip map coming up

[ptb127]

Anyone have any QPF for select cities? Just wondering how far north the heavy precip gets and how sharp the cutoff would be with this run taken verbatim?

All the 1996 references ..... as I recall that had a very sharp cutoff with Scranton, PA getting 20" and Binghamton, NY getting nearly zilch.

WNEP (Scranton, PA) coverage of 1996

[XtremeWx]

from greatest to least

orangish red 2-2.5

lgt blue 1.75-2

green 1.5-1.75

pink 1.25-1.5

blue 1-1.25

lgt gray .75-1

[WeatherNC]

In portions of NC and E VA, the ECMWF puts down 1.0-1.25" QPF in 6 hours. Does that constitute +SN?

Give me 120 hrs and I will tell you... Given the big 3 ens means over the past 2 days, feeling good for some accum, but still in that dead zone till 72 hrs where it tends to waffle a bit.

[HM]

This definately looks to be your Archembault (is that how you spell it? lol) event. Flow goes zonal by 168 hours as trough quickly exits east coast. Would look to be a sizable warmup after the event. Not that anyone cares about AFTER the event lol.

Yes this is certainly the NAO phase change storm. Let's just hope it isn't for the fish. When the s/w get together, they are at a very sensitive longitude. One little sneeze, mistake, squall line even, and this whole thing can shift in a second.

[HM]

HM..... it doesnt feel right throwing out extreme analogs 5 days out, but what the hell. Do you see elements of March 1993 and December 1992 in this storm? March 1993 type intensity and southerly phase and December 1992 in terms of how it stalls out off the MA?

This is resembling those storms on the ECMWF, particularly 1993 with how the ridge was so strong out West and 3 s/w got together. But, in this case, the parameters are all slightly weaker than 1993 at this range. That may be better for a lot of people along the East Coast in terms of snowfall and blizzard conditions anyway.

[Solo2]

Great run.....simply awesome. Just hard to fathom with that long duration snow...and at that placement Balt wouldn't get more snow than D.C. Appreciate all the updates and maps from those who provided them. I have a feeling as time progresses those qpf fields will fill in even more........if the euro holds serve on placement.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

enjoy

[Dcwx]

I can already see the depression kick in when this thing shifts east come Thursday. As long as it maintains its intensity even a shift to the East would still kick back decent snows to I-95, no?

My concern is that I have not seen any western outliers with this storm. In fact, the Euro is the western outlier. I would like to put all my eggs in one basket but the Euro is modeling a perfect scenario with too many moving parts.

[Guest someguy]

I'm shocked by this run. I thought OTS for sure

we know...

you dont get IT

and you never will

[ravensrule]

Great run.....simply awesome. Just hard to fathom with that long duration snow...and at that placement Balt wouldn't get more snow than D.C. Appreciate all the updates and maps from those who provided them. I have a feeling as time progresses those qpf fields will fill in even more........if the euro holds serve on placement.

Agreed either Tombo made a little mistake with the map or the QPF is not right, either way we have 4 days to worry about that im sure it will correct itself if it stays this track.

I see Midlo's map and it is the same i have no idea why that is

[Guest someguy]

I can already see the depression kick in when this thing shifts east come Thursday. As long as it maintains its intensity even a shift to the East would still kick back decent snows to I-95, no?

My concern is that I have not seen any western outliers with this storm. In fact, the Euro is the western outlier. I would like to put all my eggs in one basket but the Euro is modeling a perfect scenario with too many moving parts.

you do realize this is the 2 run in a row with the EXACT same solution and 3 of the last 4 runs with a Major hit right?

b/c its clear from your post you are NOT aware of this

[40/70 Benchmark]

This run epitomizes what last winter should have been.

Not often DT and I both rejoice.

[Solo2]

you do realize this is the 2 run in a row with the EXACT same solution and 3 of the last 4 runs with a Major hit right?

b/c its clear from your post you are NOT aware of this

On top of the euro's consistency....the other foreign models are set on a huge storm.....just not ideal placement at this moment.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

looping this thing is awesome heads up along the coast stops and makes a 90 degree turn pretty wild looking

[jm1220]

This run epitomizes what last winter should have been.

Not often DT and I both rejoice.

As well as the State College people who 9.5/10 times get screwed out of an all encompassing RIC-BOS snow event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

As well as the State College people who 9.5/10 times get screwed out of an all encompassing RIC-BOS snow event.

Seriously; this is unfathomable.

[Santa Clause]

As well as the State College people who 9.5/10 times get screwed out of an all encompassing RIC-BOS snow event.

JM! Just found the board, used to post with ya in the Central PA threads at EUSWX. VERY interesting storm, but like you said, we'll follow tradition and watch from the bench in CPA lol.