0z Models 12/22/10

[psuhoffman]

maybe so, but it does have some support from the GGEM, this run is more east, but has a lot in common with the EURO, and the 12z more so. I would argue the GGEM is still closer to the EURO.

the 12z GGEM ensembles were way OTS and the 0z op run may be close for NYC and New England but do not put that run into a camp with the Euro anymore. It is a miss for the mid atlantic and by a pretty good margin. The 12z Euro had 6" of snow all the way back to Pittsburgh from this storm. The GGEM has nothing west of the immediate coast and even there only an inch or two. Your final point that it is closer to the euro is true, but for places west of the immidiate coast and south of NYC a consensus or compromise between these models is no good...the models have to converge on the euro idea, not have them all trend to some middle ground as that would be a miss. If you want to marry yourself to the 12z euro over all 0z guidance that is fine and might turn out to be correct but people shouldnt sugar coat it and think there is some support that does not currently exist for the euro.

[Sn0waddict]

Good post DT.. and important to point out. When do the s/w's causing this storm come onshore and get better data handling?

Sometime during the later part of tommorow I believe.

[WintersGrasp]

I'm never one to think too negatively when it comes to storms....I try to think positive. But the way I see it...there are some storms when most guidance supports a major snow, there are those who doubt it. However, some storms we like to keep hope (like the last storm) when guidance for the most part seems to go against a good chance of a major storm. Unfortunately, this feels like the latter tonight lol

[jm1220]

I agree everyone needs to relax, but you have to agree the Euro tonight will be huge for setting the narrative tonight, as well as the public mood tomorrow. This is not just any snowstorm, but a potential bomb on Christmas -- where there is MAXIMUM interest. By tomorrow, people will want to know what to make of East Coast holiday plans. Many people already expect at least some snow on XMAS, if the Euro trends way of GFS, there will be backtracking going on if, as some already noted, the fall back 1 to 3 or 3 to 6 vanishes...

The storm doesn't care what the "public mood" 5 days before it occurs/doesn't occur is, and what the narrative becomes for 4 days before it occurs/doesn't occur. I don't mean to sound harsh here, but given the number of variables in play here, it's almost impossible to make a really solid forecast more than a couple of days out here. The models could go out to sea tonight, and then trend back to a megabomb tomorrow and Thursday. We just have to stay tuned and not get crazy until it's time.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Great post!!!

in

This really contributes to the current disco, given the trends!

AGREED come on people

[Big O]

a euro slanted compromise

Thanks, DT. I eagerly await your forecast/probability charts tomorrow at midday. Will they include time of onset for various locales?

[Reale WX]

Sometime during the later part of tommorow I believe.

Should be by 00z tomorrow, highly doubt by the 12z runs

[GD0815]

the 12z GGEM ensembles were way OTS and the 0z op run may be close for NYC and New England but do not put that run into a camp with the Euro anymore. It is a miss for the mid atlantic and by a pretty good margin. The 12z Euro had 6" of snow all the way back to Pittsburgh from this storm. The GGEM has nothing west of the immediate coast and even there only an inch or two. Your final point that it is closer to the euro is true, but for places west of the immidiate coast and south of NYC a consensus or compromise between these models is no good...the models have to converge on the euro idea, not have them all trend to some middle ground as that would be a miss. If you want to marry yourself to the 12z euro over all 0z guidance that is fine and might turn out to be correct but people shouldnt sugar coat it and think there is some support that does not currently exist for the euro.

stop focusing in on the surface and more importantly the qpf distribution this far out....look at how the storm development, the gfs moved towards the euro to some extent, and the ggem still looks a lot more like the Euro. The GGEM more closely resembles the Euro, i'm sorry but that is still support for the euro.

[psuhoffman]

this is is a really bad post / point you made

The weenie known as JI is asserting things Look "BAD" becuase he sees 1 thing and 1 thing only...

Unless there is massive 3.00" of liquid over his back yard where his Momma moomy and Dadda live it is a " diasater"

the Ggem looks Relatively good

I am NOT worried about the Precip shield at all. 90% of the time

a southern Gulf low coming up the coast passing 50- 100 miles east of HATTERAS Is going to have significant precip with it

You are right, but the GGEM trended east from 12z and while it tracks pretty good from Hatteras north...it gets a bit too far east before turning north for the mid atlantic i think. I would like to see the low track inside the outer banks myself not 150 miles east of it. I did not expect the GFS to jump on board but figured either the UK or GGEM would show a hit. Having both trend east was a bit disconcerting to me. I hope I am wrong but this feels a lot like last week when the euro was on its own and we all know how that ended. I have been wrong plenty of times before and hopefully I am again here. We will see in 45 minutes.

[Dark Energy]

If you really think about it, the phasing has to be just right for this to happen. The srn stream s/w trof has yet to be well sampled as it is still over the PAC. Every model has different physics packages. Given the above, why wouldn't you expect there to be a wide array of solutions? The deal will come down to when we are 72-84 hrs before the system IMO.

[ohleary]

the 12z GGEM ensembles were way OTS and the 0z op run may be close for NYC and New England but do not put that run into a camp with the Euro anymore. It is a miss for the mid atlantic and by a pretty good margin. The 12z Euro had 6" of snow all the way back to Pittsburgh from this storm. The GGEM has nothing west of the immediate coast and even there only an inch or two. Your final point that it is closer to the euro is true, but for places west of the immidiate coast and south of NYC a consensus or compromise between these models is no good...the models have to converge on the euro idea, not have them all trend to some middle ground as that would be a miss. If you want to marry yourself to the 12z euro over all 0z guidance that is fine and might turn out to be correct but people shouldnt sugar coat it and think there is some support that does not currently exist for the euro.

I like your posts more than just about any non-Met posts as far as scientific analysis, but I don't think it's sugar coating it to say the 00z GFS had a trend toward the 12z Euro. And the 00z NAM looked through its 84 hours quite a bit like the 12z Euro. Now.....will the 00z Euro look like the 12z Euro.

Plus, it's still like 4 days out with no model consensus, so who cares yet anyway

[psuhoffman]

stop focusing in on the surface and more importantly the qpf distribution this far out....look at how the storm development, the gfs moved towards the euro to some extent, and the ggem still looks a lot more like the Euro. The GGEM more closely resembles the Euro, i'm sorry but that is still support for the euro.

What makes you think I am focused on the surface... the GGEM develops the H5 low to slowly, it does not go negative until it is already at our latitude, that is not good. It also is already a little east of our area by the time it really wraps up. Also not good. Finally the H7 never winds up until it is well north and east of this region. Sorry I know it looks a lot better then the GFS but its a close miss and its upper levels support what it shows at the surface. If the H5/H7/SLP of the GGEM happens this will be a miss for most south of NYC. It may be wrong, any model can be at this range, but as shown it is a miss. More importantly it is east of its previous run. I really do not want to get into an argument over what may or may not happen and if the trend is good or not, we will know if I am right or wrong in 30 minutes when the euro comes out. If it remains steady with a similar storm to 12z I will be happy and pleasantly surprised and glad I was wrong.

[GD0815]

What makes you think I am focused on the surface... the GGEM develops the H5 low to slowly, it does not go negative until it is already at our latitude, that is not good. It also is already a little east of our area by the time it really wraps up. Also not good. Finally the H7 never winds up until it is well north and east of this region. Sorry I know it looks a lot better then the GFS but its a close miss and its upper levels support what it shows at the surface. If the H5/H7/SLP of the GGEM happens this will be a miss for most south of NYC. It may be wrong, any model can be at this range, but as shown it is a miss. More importantly it is east of its previous run. I really do not want to get into an argument over what may or may not happen and if the trend is good or not, we will know if I am right or wrong in 30 minutes when the euro comes out. If it remains steady with a similar storm to 12z I will be happy and pleasantly surprised and glad I was wrong.

huh? no we wont, my argument was that the GGEM more resembled the 12zEuro, if the Euro is 400 miles OTS, it doesnt make what i said any less right or wrong.

[Dr No]

What makes you think I am focused on the surface... the GGEM develops the H5 low to slowly, it does not go negative until it is already at our latitude, that is not good. It also is already a little east of our area by the time it really wraps up. Also not good. Finally the H7 never winds up until it is well north and east of this region. Sorry I know it looks a lot better then the GFS but its a close miss and its upper levels support what it shows at the surface. If the H5/H7/SLP of the GGEM happens this will be a miss for most south of NYC. It may be wrong, any model can be at this range, but as shown it is a miss. More importantly it is east of its previous run. I really do not want to get into an argument over what may or may not happen and if the trend is good or not, we will know if I am right or wrong in 30 minutes when the euro comes out. If it remains steady with a similar storm to 12z I will be happy and pleasantly surprised and glad I was wrong.

Do you feel as if the Euro is going to trend east this evening? and if so, can you explain why?

[Neblizzard]

Not saying what model will be right, but climatology is really hard to go against here. This is why we don't get blizzard's in the mid-atlantic during a strong La Nina.

[WhiteoutWX]

What makes you think I am focused on the surface... the GGEM develops the H5 low to slowly, it does not go negative until it is already at our latitude, that is not good. It also is already a little east of our area by the time it really wraps up. Also not good. Finally the H7 never winds up until it is well north and east of this region. Sorry I know it looks a lot better then the GFS but its a close miss and its upper levels support what it shows at the surface. If the H5/H7/SLP of the GGEM happens this will be a miss for most south of NYC. It may be wrong, any model can be at this range, but as shown it is a miss. More importantly it is east of its previous run. I really do not want to get into an argument over what may or may not happen and if the trend is good or not, we will know if I am right or wrong in 30 minutes when the euro comes out. If it remains steady with a similar storm to 12z I will be happy and pleasantly surprised and glad I was wrong.

I agree, but await the 0z Euro before saying anything else at this point.

[ORH_wxman]

I like your posts more than just about any non-Met posts as far as scientific analysis, but I don't think it's sugar coating it to say the 00z GFS had a trend toward the 12z Euro. And the 00z NAM looked through its 84 hours quite a bit like the 12z Euro. Now.....will the 00z Euro look like the 12z Euro.

Plus, it's still like 4 days out with no model consensus, so who cares yet anyway

I mentioned this on the radio show...its easy to forget how far out this still is because its been talked about for a few days now and keeps showing up on the models. But we have a LONG ways to go before we get into any type of confident range. This could be a complete consensus on a storm 500 miles offshore 2 days from now...or a consensus of a big hit.

[psuhoffman]

I like your posts more than just about any non-Met posts as far as scientific analysis, but I don't think it's sugar coating it to say the 00z GFS had a trend toward the 12z Euro. And the 00z NAM looked through its 84 hours quite a bit like the 12z Euro. Now.....will the 00z Euro look like the 12z Euro.

Plus, it's still like 4 days out with no model consensus, so who cares yet anyway

Thanks, I was a met major for 2 years at Penn State before taking a different path. Even after changing majors I continued to take as many met courses as they would allow me to take while at PSU. One dream I have is to go back and finish my met degree someday even if I never actually use it. I love teaching so I am not sure I would want to change careers but it bugs me that I never got a met degree.

As for analysis of the 0z, I am probably way to pessimistic right now, but this just feels a LOT like last week when the euro was all on its own and then pulled the rug out with the 0z run. I also think people are focused on certain things here that may not be the big factor they think it is. We are looking at the speed of the STJ impulse and the strength of that vort. However, when comparing the UK/GFS/NAM/GGEM/Euro at 72 hours I realized how similar they all are. Then when I looked at the euro more closely realized how far south and east it gets with the low before all of a sudden it digs the AJ like crazy, phases perfectly and bombs the low due north up the coast. My point is, with slightly less perfect phasing the euro could easily be OTS from where it is at 72 and even 96 hours. I think this is another thread the needle situation now, not the more money in the bank overrunning setup we had before. So I guess its not just the models tonight I do not like, but the more I look at it the whole setup seems more of a long shot to me. I guess I have that bad gut feeling that we are headed for a big let down in 30 minutes but hopefully I am wrong and it would not be the first time.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Whatever the outcome one of the great services this site could provide to the entire community is keeping score. IE, how many times did we have a hit at x days that ended up being out to sea only to come back again. My gut tells me the idea that it happens at D4 and then the storm comes back as a solid hit D3 is well overstated.

Anyway mentioned it elsewhere, my thought is the volatility we are seeing is the result partially not only of the block, but the lack of AMDAR data getting into the EC in particular. With thousands of flights being grounded a lot of data is not being input.

http://www.ecmwf.int...tions/Klink.pdf

In 2000 there were 50 reporting aircraft, its around 45,000 now per day. A TON of those have been cancelled over the last several days/week.

EDIT: 22k flights were cancelled on 12/20 alone...that's a LOT of missing data.

[Reale WX]

Please remember the s/w IS NOT even on the west coast yet it has 3000+ miles to go stop worrying so much as many people on this thread have mentioned and wait for the models to a. get good data over land and b. are within 3 days

[WeatherNC]

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

1236 AM EST WED DEC 22 2010

VALID DEC 22/0000 UTC THRU DEC 25/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR

INGEST...

00Z/22 PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES

ANY INITIALIZATION ERRORS WITH THE NAM AND GFS DO NOT APPEAR TO

SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT THEIR SOLUTIONS.

...CONTINENTAL POLAR FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: NONE

THE NAM...GFS...GEM GLOBAL...UKMET...AND 12Z/21 ECMWF ALL HANDLE

THIS BOUNDARY COMPARABLY.

...SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DAY 1...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: PENDING 00Z/22 ECMWF

THE NAM TIMING OF THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO THE 12Z/21 ECMWF...WITH

SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLITUDE BY THE TIME IT REACHES LOUISIANA BY THE

END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL BEGIN TO PULL AHEAD OF

THE NAM AND ECMWF LATE DAY 3 ALONG THE GULF COAST...WITH THE GFS

SHOWING LESS AMPLITUDE LIKE THE NAM. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON

THE SLOW...SUPPRESSED SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...A BIAS OF THE MODEL.

THERE HAS BEEN A LOT OF TRENDING WITH THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST

SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES...SO WILL WAIT FOR THE NEW ECMWF TO MAKE A

FINAL CALL.

...BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST...

PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: GFS OR 12Z/21 ECMWF

THE NAM EDGES THIS BOUNDARY CLOSER TO SHORE THAN THE GFS AND

12Z/21 ECMWF...WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED WAVE OFFSHORE BY THE END OF

DAY 3. THE GEM GLOBAL AND UKMET CLUSTER WITH THE GFS AND OLD

ECMWF...SO WILL RELY ON THEIR CONSIDERABLE CONSIDERABLE CONSENSUS.

...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT

WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HTML/MODEL2.SHTML...

...500MB FORECASTS AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/H5PREF/H5PREF.SHTML...

CISCO

I do not see any mention of the NOGAPS.

[ohleary]

Whatever the outcome one of the great services this site could provide to the entire community is keeping score. IE, how many times did we have a hit at x days that ended up being out to sea only to come back again. My gut tells me the idea that it happens at D4 and then the storm comes back as a solid hit D3 is well overstated.

Anyway mentioned it elsewhere, my thought is the volatility we are seeing is the result partially not only of the block, but the lack of AMDAR data getting into the EC in particular. With thousands of flights being grounded a lot of data is not being input.

http://www.ecmwf.int...tions/Klink.pdf

In 2000 there were 50 reporting aircraft, its around 45,000 now per day. A TON of those have been cancelled over the last several days/week.

Right but none of the global models are getting them, not just the EC, correct? I may be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but I believe the GFS ingests aircraft obs outside of CONUS. dtk can correct me if I'm wrong.

[psuhoffman]

you know the one big difference on the euro at 72 hours from 12z was it had a stronger 50/50 low over the north atlantic..>Some think that would be bad but its possible that is why it bombed everything out as the block slowed things down and really let the AJ dive in and amplify.

[dtk]

Right but none of the global models are getting them, not just the EC, correct? I may be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but I believe the GFS ingests aircraft obs outside of CONUS. dtk can correct me if I'm wrong.

We should all be receiving the same data, but whether or not those observations are assimilated is another matter (for example, there are a ton of aircraft obs we currently have flagged because of known biases).

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Right but none of the global models are getting them, not just the EC, correct? I may be wrong (wouldn't be the first time) but I believe the GFS ingests aircraft obs outside of CONUS. dtk can correct me if I'm wrong.

I'm not real sure either, hoping someone here has the answer. I think the EC folks really pushed the build out of the network, not sure where NCEP is on all of it.

[Reale WX]

66 hours out gfs has slightly more defined ridge to the west, euro just starting to develop a sfc low over TX

[Midlo Snow Maker]

hr 66 has the S/W a hair west a still closed

[Midlo Snow Maker]

hr 78 closed 500 low over downtown dallas a hair west of 12z

[Dr No]

Looks like the Euro is going to bomb it again... (through 72) .... the question is how close to the coast.

[Reale WX]

S/W more defines and digs more on the Euro at 84 hours... have a feeling will be another hit as it is not as flat as the gfs