LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 0z NAM is out to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 keep in on topic folks to avoid a 5 posts per day restriction Members,Due to the high activity with the pending event, AmericanWx is entering in what is called Storm mode. Additional temporary moderators are added and the normal warn and suspend protocols are removed. Moderators will now have the power to automatically remove your posts and or suspend you without warning. Moderators will create ONE thread that you may mix banter and weather in. KEEP ALL BANTER in this thread ONLY. Please see below the new policies/rules that are put into affect under Storm Mode: 1. Cross thread trolling will not be permitted on the weather side. If you are in a region other than your own with the sole purpose of starting trouble, you will be suspended without question. 2. Model threads will be cleared of unrelated discussion, personal attacks, and analysis without any basis. Even the most basic and rudimentary analysis would be appreciated. 3. In model threads, repetitive questions such as “how much for…..” etc will be deleted. 4. Please respect the professionals that post here. They will make forecasts as they are comfortable but continued pestering or badgering of them with "How much for...?" will result in the quickest exit from this board. We will not be tolerant of abusive or trolling behavior. 5. If you post a forecast, please have some sound reasoning behind it. IMBY forecasts also known as wishcasts will likely end up in OT or deleted. 6. DO NOT link threads that have nothing to do with weather or weather forecasting from any other board. Do not link threads from other boards that contain cross feuding or dealing with personal issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 21Z SREF trended towards a farther west ridge axis and slower evolution at 81 hours compared to 03z 87 hours 21Z 15Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 NAM is already slower through 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 21Z SREF trended towards a farther west ridge axis and slower evolution at 81 hours compared to 03z 87 hours 21Z ] hard to tell so i helped you out but yes you are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 21Z SREF trended towards a farther west ridge axis and slower evolution at 81 hours compared to 03z 87 hours 21Z img] equally important, look where the 21Z SREF at 87hrs puts the surface Low Pressure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 split vorts? by hr 30 compared to last run 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Can anyone comment on why this is slowing every run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 the ridge looks sharper. i assume that causes things to slow down some more. it keeps getting slower......i hope it doesnt get too slow where our 50/50 ends up scooting too far away opening up the flood gates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 Based on that animation, the ridge axis is also west of 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 21Z SREF trended towards a farther west ridge axis and slower evolution at 81 hours compared to 03z 87 hours ] The western ridge on the 21z SREFS appears to be more of a neutral tilt and slightly more pronounced, minor run-to-run changes here. The big difference for me is the presentation of the system over Hudson Bay, Canada. It appears to be more robust. Finally, the energy diving south through Arkansas seems better defined on the 21z SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 You can best see the difference in the S/W strength by looking at the thicknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Can anyone comment on why this is slowing every run? Through 30 hours the 5h S/W axis is in the same place as the 12Z run. Not sure what they are seeing as far as slowing. S/W slightly sharper and deeper, slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 At 30 on the NAM, ridging is stronger east of the s/w, which may be a hair west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Can anyone comment on why this is slowing every run? I would think its that wall in front of it. Looks like it on satellite anyway. Also looks like that further south vortex is actually already further south in reality. Going to be very interested in where that vortex is at 60 hours to see how it lines up with the EC at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 By tomorrow's 00z runs, we should have the California upper air sites getting a true sample of this shortwave. That will hopefully provide some clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Can anyone comment on why this is slowing every run? as simplistic as it sounds, runs from a few days ago were too fast and the evolution has changed from the s/w entering further north and bowling ball across the country vs. entering further south and taking the southern route via GOM and east coast which is, of course, a longer journey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hr 36 is dead on with the 12z euro location of the S/W 12 gfs was faster than these 2 runs at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 hour 42 500 vort (looks more stung out north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 By tomorrow's 00z runs, we should have the California upper air sites getting a true sample of this shortwave. That will hopefully provide some clarity. Indeed. Too bad there's no balloon launches in the Middle of the Hudson Bay, where another key element will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 5h Closed off at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Much slower and robust at 42... this will end at least SOME better than the 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 5h Closed off at 36. ....and open at 42, just like 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 22, 2010 Author Share Posted December 22, 2010 This run is slower than both the 12z GGEM and Ukie so far through 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looks alot like the 12Z run through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 ....and open at 42, just like 18Z. but the axis of tilt is neutral or slightly negative, while at 18z its clearly positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 maybe its me but the confluence in the northeast looks a good bit stronger so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The southern stream is a little strong and slower but that may be tempered by the vortex from Hades extending farther to the southwest this run which is liable to again make it hard to get any warm advection going as the system moves east. I'll probably stay thru the nam and quit as I'm fighting a sinus infection and don;t have as much energy as normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 The southern stream is a little strong and slower but that may be tempered by the vortex from Hades extending farther to the southwest this run which is liable to again make it hard to get any warm advection going as the system moves east. I'll probably stay thru the nam and quit as I'm fighting a sinus infection and don;t have as much energy as normal. I hope you feel better, Wes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2010 Share Posted December 22, 2010 Looks alot like the 12Z run through 42 yes but I liked the look of the 12z NAM, thought it was nearly identical to the euro through 72 hours. If the NAM shifts back to 12z after a less impressive 18z I would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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