Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Hurricane Matthew banter thread


NavarreDon

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 89
  • Created
  • Last Reply
8 minutes ago, bobbutts said:

Some serious wobble watching going on..  Last few radar frames clearly more westerly.. 

If I'm extrapolating I get anywhere from Jupiter to MLB for landfall depending on how far I go back.  

Posting in banter since it's relatively useless.

Agree. My sense is Vero Beach.

Here is another link to reporting station near Freeport. Might be knocked out by now though. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1&unit=E&tz=STN

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Jacksonville / Duval County's evacuation covers  456,000  people ... nearly half a million.  That's not just the Beaches population, it covers a huge chunk of the Northside and places well inland but along the St Johns.

Some years ago they restructured the evacuation zones to take into account the flooding along the St Johns and its tributaries.  A landfalling storm ends up dumping tons of rain inland, which drains into the St Johns which then tries to carry it all north to downtown Jax, then east to Mayport to dump into the Atlantic.  That flow hits a few snags when the same stoos pushing a big surge and winds inland.  So ... lots of inland places are in the zones that are evac'd.

http://media.news4jax.com/document_dev/2015/11/10/Duval-County-evacuation-zones_396165_ver1.0.pdf

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Best guess is that eye makes a partial landfall near Cape Canaveral at 0800 EDT then crawls up the coast, largely offshore but with western edge scraping the coast, various jogs and eyewall irregularities may lead to quite variable results in terms of peak winds, however the storm surge issue is pretty much of a given now, would urge respect for that part of the forecast most of all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My girlfriend, who absolutely cannot wait for this thing to go away, patiently has sat down with me several times over the last 10-12 days reading these threads truly curious and being the fabulous woman she is ;).  Anyway as this things getting close to the final climax of US possible landfall and the threads are lighting up sometimes a post every 15 seconds she looked at me and said, "Ok, now I get it, Matthew is a weather nerds version of "The Notebook".  Lord help me I love her ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The "dodged a bullet" hurricane cliché was invoked!! Wouldn't be hurricane season without it, in before "good news" and the 2nd most prominent/worst one: "It could have been worse". This cliché is used for every single tropical cyclone that has ever hit or nearly hit landmass in the United States and Canada...its been especially bad for the ones occurring this century, dear lord.

If Matthew doesn't have its eyewall (either OEW or IEW) touch anything, we can start a drinking game where everytime we hear those clichés above we take a drink; those playing would be passed out cold before sunset tonight!


 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SharonA said:

Good lord, the outer eyewall is just starting to play footsie with the coast, it's a bit early for cliche-tossers to go around shouting "dodged a bullet".
 

A CNN reporter in WPB this hour where I take it conditions were not really expected to be too bad in the first place said not only "dodged a bullet", but the second worst one of "it could have been worse." TWO in the same segment with a "relief" remark from the anchor to boot. What a gem, unreal.
 

35 minutes ago, Sickman said:

Shepard Smith...

Looks like its already becoming a viral video.
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sickman said:

Shepard Smith... :facepalm:

 

[

 
 

Shepard Smith got burned by Katrina so he is overcompensating.  I remember him standing in NO early in the morning after landfall saying that the city had dodged a bullet. And then the levees broke.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, jburns said:

Shepard Smith got burned by Katrina so he is overcompensating.  I remember him standing in NO early in the morning after landfall saying that the city had dodged a bullet. And then the levees broke.

He should have gone to his expert correspondant, Ming-Ming...

seriousmeme2.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was too close to the comfort zone for anyone to induce complacency but in some ways, central Florida's gain may turn out to be a loss further north since the circulation remains intact and therefore storm surge potential remains very high, also if there was to be any jogging around along the predicted path, the cane remains quite potent.

On the whole, I am very relieved for Florida, this could have been so much worse if the track had been even 20 miles west after the NNW turn set in last night. I imagine there will be some locally severe coastal flooding even so, and the decision to stay or leave may look different to folks who reach day six or seven with no power and empty stores in their zone of accessibility, but that could be fairly limited too. If it was me looking at all guidance, I would have maybe stayed if south of Vero Beach and left if vulnerable to storm surge anywhere north, or wind damage north of the Cape, just to be on the safe side. 

But you can understand with the combination of financial and security concerns, the decision to stay often makes a lot of sense. There are situations where it is more clear cut and an evacuation absolutely would save your life. I'm hoping this conclusion will remain on the table for "the next time" if that time is more defined (as for example we could have said to residents of the MS gulf coast in Katrina).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, No snow for you said:

I don't know sign language but I don't think Nikki Haley's sign language guy does either. He makes me laugh so hard with his facial expressions. 

He is my hero.

 

Anyway, if this GFS run verifies, even at 10:1, we'll be buried.

At least we'll be able to make some awesome snow cream.

gfs.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...