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Hurricane Matthew banter thread

NavarreDon

By NavarreDon,
in Tropical Headquarters

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WxReese

WxReese

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, pcbjr said:

Inland the same thing - Gainesville, Lake Butler, Palatka.

Yeah, with current forecasted path, I wouldn't be super concerned in Lake Butler or Gainesville, but you could see some surge issues from the river in Palatka. Sure, you'll have feeder bands capable of 60+ mph wind, but sustained wind isn't going to be as high there as they area within 20-30 miles from the coast. Of course, if this comes more inland, like some EPS members were showing, then the conversation would change quite a bit for you and those locations. 

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

If we actually get the outcome in which the eye rides the coast for a long distance, it will be interesting to see how NHC handles the official landfall location.  I can see a lot of premature landfall calls by some people here. :P

 

Aw cmon' we know the landfall will totally be in Charleston!  I am trying to figure out a way into that place.  They literally have it locked down... like roads blocked etc... like with scary guards and things everywhere.    Trying to make a plan to get in.. but it's hard.  I'll get some nutty weather video if I can make it.

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mempho

mempho

Posted
Posted
 

Aw cmon' we know the landfall will totally be in Charleston!  I am trying to figure out a way into that place.  They literally have it locked down... like roads blocked etc... like with scary guards and things everywhere.    Trying to make a plan to get in.. but it's hard.  I'll get some nutty weather video if I can make it.


Anyone know how the TV people get in?



Sent from my SM-G900R7 using Tapatalk

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Ser Pounce

Ser Pounce

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Shawn said:

 

Aw cmon' we know the landfall will totally be in Charleston!  I am trying to figure out a way into that place.  They literally have it locked down... like roads blocked etc... like with scary guards and things everywhere.    Trying to make a plan to get in.. but it's hard.  I'll get some nutty weather video if I can make it.

I'm already there. There will be plenty of pictures and videos from our place, just across the Ashley River from downtown. Maybe this will take out some of the neighbors trees and improve our view...

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brettjrob

brettjrob

Posted
Posted

As some of you may recall from the winter season, I'm one of several people working on pivotalweather.com, which is focused primarily on NWP graphics (so far). Just wanted to let everyone know we stayed up late this evening adding a new product that may be useful: a time-max 10 m wind gust product that continues to sum as the model runs. I've attached a sample below. Here is an example from the 4km NAM on our site.

This is available for the following models: GFS, NAM, NAM-4km, HRRR, and the NCEP 4km WRFs (ARW and NMMB). It's only being produced right now for the Hurricane Zoom, which you can find under the "LOCAL" tab in the region selector.

gust_max.hurricane_matthew.png

Hope this is helpful -- let us know if you have any suggestions for improvement!

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LovintheWhiteFluff

LovintheWhiteFluff

Posted
Posted

Past results do not guarantee future performance

 

None of this mattered to John Long, who lives in the Florida town of Cape Canaveral.

“The hype is going to be worse than the actual storm. I feel I can do quite well,” said Long, who owns a bike shop and plans to ride out the storm with his cat in his 32-foot recreational vehicle a half-mile from the ocean. He has lived in the Space Coast area for three decades. “There’s always tremendous buildup and then it’s no stronger than an afternoon thunderstorm. I’m not anticipating that much damage,” he said Wednesday.

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All Wet

All Wet

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, LovintheWhiteFluff said:

Past results do not guarantee future performance

 

None of this mattered to John Long, who lives in the Florida town of Cape Canaveral.

“The hype is going to be worse than the actual storm. I feel I can do quite well,” said Long, who owns a bike shop and plans to ride out the storm with his cat in his 32-foot recreational vehicle a half-mile from the ocean. He has lived in the Space Coast area for three decades. “There’s always tremendous buildup and then it’s no stronger than an afternoon thunderstorm. I’m not anticipating that much damage,” he said Wednesday.

Reminds me of the guy who refused to leave the lake that was right next to Mt Saint Helen, before the volcano completely wiped it out.   He didn't think anything was going to happen, either.

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Jim Marusak

Jim Marusak

Posted
Posted

something of a different thought here. but i met someone a while back via linked in who I have become professional friends with via the Twin Cities Met Society. He's a met that works for one of the major re-insurers of property insurance up here. and he pointed out an article that's currently on CNBC about the amount of potential damage from a system like this, in billions of dollars. we're talking hundreds of billions US in claims here, depending on the strength. 

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/10/06/hurricane-matthew-could-inflict-200-billion-in-damage-to-coastal-homes.html?utm_content=buffere609f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

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SeanBarg

SeanBarg

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, brettjrob said:

As some of you may recall from the winter season, I'm one of several people working on pivotalweather.com, which is focused primarily on NWP graphics (so far). Just wanted to let everyone know we stayed up late this evening adding a new product that may be useful: a time-max 10 m wind gust product that continues to sum as the model runs. I've attached a sample below. Here is an example from the 4km NAM on our site.

This is available for the following models: GFS, NAM, NAM-4km, HRRR, and the NCEP 4km WRFs (ARW and NMMB). It's only being produced right now for the Hurricane Zoom, which you can find under the "LOCAL" tab in the region selector.

gust_max.hurricane_matthew.png

Hope this is helpful -- let us know if you have any suggestions for improvement!

 

Very cool feature Brett! I was wondering why I couldn't find those graphics that others were posting when looking on Pivotal. 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

My current estimates of probability --

25% -- Entire eye structure remains offshore e FL but close enough for hurricane force north winds on coast

30% -- Western half of eye makes landfall (most likely near Melbourne then up to at least Daytona Beach)

25% -- Entire eye makes landfall but eastern third maintains contact with Atlantic Ocean

15% -- Entire eye makes landfall and the eye moves inland with periods of no contact with Atlantic Ocean.

5% -- some other outcome such as unexpected weakening, swerves etc -- this would include any landfall south of Fort Lauderdale including Miami. 

 

As to the question of what to tell the guys in Cocoa Beach, they are more likely than anyone else to be at the landfall or worse just north of it, realistically if they won't evacuate tell them to expect it to be like a long-duration tornado and much would depend on where they are attempting to ride this out, you would be better off in a structure not highly exposed to any off-water wind direction, and the larger and more modern in terms of building codes, the better. If there is time, I would at least obtain seven days of non-perishable food, water, any medical stuff that might be needed -- this could as some are speculating turn out less than catastrophic but I would not bet my life on it anywhere from Fort Lauderdale to Jacksonville or within let's say 30 miles of the coast (if not in a sheltered location).

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SharonA

SharonA

Posted
Posted

The horror of no cold beer got some folks to hit the road!   Bragging in a slack channel about sitting-it-out while idiots fell for the hype and evac'd didn't last long at the idea of even an offshore zoom-by could result in wind+flooding power outages. That cooler of iced beer wasn't going to last more than a day or two, less if they kept opening it.

If you want real stay-cold-cooler chilling power start freezing blocks of ice (from potable water), and seal up in your vac-sealer now.  Build up a nice collection of ice blocks, and stack 'em with no air gaps.  Solid blocks will melt slower than cubes., and if they're inside vac-seal packages you can use the contents for safe drinking water after they've melted.

That was too much work for them :)

Plus I pointed out the whole no-showers/no-fans and that if there is junk to clean up afterwards you're going to be helping the neighbors clean up too so no rest once you finish your property (unless you want to be the new jerk neighbor no one likes anymore).

 

 

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bdgwx

bdgwx

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, brettjrob said:

As some of you may recall from the winter season, I'm one of several people working on pivotalweather.com, which is focused primarily on NWP graphics (so far). Just wanted to let everyone know we stayed up late this evening adding a new product that may be useful: a time-max 10 m wind gust product that continues to sum as the model runs. I've attached a sample below. Here is an example from the 4km NAM on our site.

This is available for the following models: GFS, NAM, NAM-4km, HRRR, and the NCEP 4km WRFs (ARW and NMMB). It's only being produced right now for the Hurricane Zoom, which you can find under the "LOCAL" tab in the region selector.

Hope this is helpful -- let us know if you have any suggestions for improvement!

 

Awesome feature. Thanks!

I wonder...what would a min(MSLP) plot look like?

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SharonA

SharonA

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

Florida cancelled their football game with LSU. They refused to move it and cancelled it instead. Interesting move. 

Maybe they couldn't work out a mutually-free weekend and venue (and the $ for last-minute changes).

 

(former-events-logistics-person here)

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