Hurricane Matthew banter thread

[NavarreDon]

Ok all, have at it. Please post in this thread for all non weather related posts including mby, learning questions, ect etc.

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[Jtm12180]

What are the current odds of SC/NC being in serious play again for a landfall or close call? Thank you in advance 

[jburns]

It's still basically a crap shoot for SC and points north.  All you can do at this point is watch and wait.

[No snow for you]

So is McCrory going to reverse his decision after 'his" Euro shows Eastern North Carolina becoming a swimming pool? 

[Justicebork]

HB2 compliant storm?


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[bobbutts]

20 minutes ago, jburns said:

It's still basically a crap shoot for SC and points north.  All you can do at this point is watch and wait.

I'd say north of the outer banks looks like a greatly reduced chance compared to a few days back.  I don't see any models showing runs up the coast towards NY or NE anymore when previously there were a significant number of them.

[Roger Smith]

2 hours ago, Jtm12180 said:

What are the current odds of SC/NC being in serious play again for a landfall or close call? Thank you in advance 

Odds at present time would be something like 50/50 Savannah GA, 40/60 CHS, 20/80 NC. 

Odds may shift after 18z model runs about to begin. 

[Justicebork]

The ISS is about to fly right over the storm - maybe 5 minutes from now. http://airportwebcams.net/cams/iss-webcam.html


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[bobbutts]

Any advice for someone riding this out in a sturdy 8 story condo building in S. Palm Beach?  To me it doesn't seem any more dangerous than in a private house a bit inland, but I hesitate to condone staying right on the waterfront.

[Bodhi Cove]

Talk about bad timing.

$7 million improvements to Ponte Vedra Beach golf course completed

Oct 4, 2016, 8:16am EDT

 

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2016/10/04/7-million-improvements-to-ponte-vedra-beach-golf.html

[NavarreDon]

Any advice for someone riding this out in a sturdy 8 story condo building in S. Palm Beach?  To me it doesn't seem any more dangerous than in a private house a bit inland, but I hesitate to condone staying right on the waterfront.

Ya....lots & lots of expensive scotch!


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[stockmanjr]

Seems like a bit of complacency has set in as UF and SC are planning to go ahead with their games on Sat. 

[Bodhi Cove]

2 hours ago, bobbutts said:

Any advice for someone riding this out in a sturdy 8 story condo building in S. Palm Beach?  To me it doesn't seem any more dangerous than in a private house a bit inland, but I hesitate to condone staying right on the waterfront.

Lol, yeah. If you see the window glass bowing in, jump over the furniture and RUN away!

Ask me how know that. 

[SharonA]

2 hours ago, bobbutts said:

Any advice for someone riding this out in a sturdy 8 story condo building in S. Palm Beach?  To me it doesn't seem any more dangerous than in a private house a bit inland, but I hesitate to condone staying right on the waterfront.

Ask him how he feels about the possibility of going a week+ with no water, and even longer with no electricity.  That's been the worse part of a bad hit for me when living coastal.

It's not fun at all to be doing cleanup, hauling, chainsawing, lots of manual labor, in muggy afternoons knowing we didn't have a shower, clean clothes, A/C, or even a cold drink to look forward to.  We had safe drinking water we'd stocked up on but it was also warm outside temperature.

The huge street party-cookout when everyone brought out the contents of their fridges and freezers to BBQ before it went off - that was pretty cool, but didn't come close to making up for the hassle and loss and dealing with the 100x increase in bugs and snakes and other critters displaced by the storm and remaining flood-pond-areas.  It was mosquito heaven until winter.

 

 

[Ser Pounce]

1 hour ago, MiddleRvrwx said:

Talk about bad timing.

$7 million improvements to Ponte Vedra Beach golf course completed

Oct 4, 2016, 8:16am EDT

 

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2016/10/04/7-million-improvements-to-ponte-vedra-beach-golf.html

I sold a house in terrible condition in downtown Charleston yesterday. It amazes me that the buyers never asked about moving the closing date until next week. I'm curious whether it survives the storm or not.

[Cgacla]

8 hours ago, NavarreDon said:

 

Ok all, have at it. Please post in this thread for all non weather related posts including mby, learning questions, ect etc.

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I am new to the forum. I live in NE Fort Lauderdale. What do the experts think here for us specifically? Do you all think we have a good shot of avoding landfall here? Thanks 

[Roger Smith]

PROBABLE WEATHER SEQUENCE NEAR LANDFALL POINT of CAT-4 HURRICANE E FLORIDA COAST

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

For the benefit of visitors to the forum and those with little background in forecasting ...

If a cat-4 landfall occurs, you could expect this sequence of weather tomorrow ...

... for about 4-6 hours before landfall, winds would slowly increase to hurricane force from the N-NE driving water onshore, some low-lying outer coastal locations would be flooded by 5-15 feet of water depending on local channelling. Cat-1 winds would persist until about an hour before landfall then cat-2 just before the eyewall arrived. Torrential rain and some thunderstorms would be ongoing and there would be a risk of tornado or waterspout activity (these would be moving more east to west than the wind direction might imply).

Cat-3 easterly winds would likely set in as the eyewall hit your location. Storm surges of 8 to 15 feet would be likely (higher if this coincides with high tide). Cat-3 winds would be 120 mph gusting to 150 (approximately). Moderate to severe damage is possible mainly to roofs, trees, unsecured objects. 

The most severe winds would occur about 10-20 miles north of the "landfall" spot because there, winds from the SE in the forward part of the eyewall would hit at cat-4 intensity. Those winds could partially destroy substantial structures and deroof many. Windows and doors could be blown in (or out once a wind tunnel began). 

Getting back to the exact landfall spot, eventually the strong east winds would ease and you would be in the eye for 1-2 hours, with lighter winds, some clearing until the back part of the eyewall arrived. 

In the second encounter with the eyewall, winds would begin to blow at cat-1 then cat-2 intensity from the southwest and would peak at cat-3 southwest to west winds (about 100-140 mph). Heavy rain would begin again. As the hurricane moved inland (even if just slightly) to your northwest, these hurricane force southwesterlies would gradually ease to cat-1 after 3 or 4 hours. The rain and strong wind might last another 3 to 6 hours then the skies would begin to clear and it would be safe to go outside except for any downed power lines or blowing light debris, or of course flooding.

The southwest to west winds would pile up water on the inland side of outer sandbar islands and could reverse the flow of floodwaters already flowing around, but the main effect would be to gradually push the high water back into the Atlantic. Some outer beaches might at this point see unusually low tides with the strong winds blowing off land. 

Obviously, one would not want to ride that out, but that's the sequence to expect near landfall. If you're let's say 50 miles south of the landfall point, your sequence would be strong to cat-1 hurricane north winds slowly turning more to northwest and west, with lashing rain and some cat-2 gusts. If you were 50 miles north of landfall, you could expect cat-2 northeast winds turning slowly to east then southeast with some cat-3 gusts (about 150 mph), high storm surges to 15 feet, and no interruption in the hurricane (too far from the eye for that) but winds slowly turning to south then southwest. All of this would last about 9-12 hours total. 

I will monitor the thread and answer questions. Good luck. 

[mfgmfg]

Looks like the main thread is getting confused by how the board's image proxy works. Is there a way to tell it to pull the latest image from the site you're grabbing the image from, if the URL didn't change, or do you just fake it by adding null parameters to the URL like I did below

 

[Shawn]

8 minutes ago, mfgmfg said:

Looks like the main thread is getting confused by how the board's image proxy works. Is there a way to tell it to pull the latest image from the site you're grabbing the image from, if the URL didn't change, or do you just fake it by adding null parameters to the URL like I did below

Not getting too detailed about it, but I would think that could pose a security risk for potential exploits and ddos type attacks.  The imagery works 99% of the time, and changing it wouldn't be a good idea imo.

[SharonA]

I download 'em to my machine, then upload to the forums from my machine.  It eliminates the confusion and outdated-stuff issue we're seeing in the other thread.

 

[Shawn]

Just now, SharonA said:

I download 'em to my machine, then upload to the forums from my machine.  It eliminates the confusion and outdated-stuff issue we're seeing in the other thread.

 

Yes sir, that is the way I put images up also.  If I do not directly upload them to the site "attachments", I will put them on an external source such as postimage and then link them.  I found that is the best way to keep an "archive" for a potential storm threat.  Sucks going into a thread when someone says "LOOK HOW CRAZY THIS IS!" - and the image is directly linked so it doesn't show what they spoke about.

The only problem with that, of course is the image host site going down or purging old files.

[mfgmfg]

5 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Not getting too detailed about it, but I would think that could pose a security risk for potential exploits and ddos type attacks.  The imagery works 99% of the time, and changing it wouldn't be a good idea imo.

I don't mean for it to pull image every time it's displayed, just when you create a post with the image in it without quoting. Looking at the help forum, the primary use for the image proxy is to allow this site to be fully HTTPS so you don't get mixed content warnings when embedding HTTP image links. Not sure if the image proxy is used if you embed an image with a HTTPS-based url.

I agree it sucks when people use an image that updates 'live' and you read the thread a few months later and get an image from the present. I always strive to use an image link that has a date/timestamp in it so it's static or reupload the image to a site like imgur.

 

 

Another discussion for the banter thread. I was wondering today about who the first person was to fly through an hurricane on purpose for weather-recon purposes. How did they figure out that a plane might be able to survive the conditions in an eyewall?

[Avdave]

45 minutes ago, Cgacla said:

I am new to the forum. I live in NE Fort Lauderdale. What do the experts think here for us specifically? Do you all think we have a good shot of avoding landfall here? Thanks 

Whether the eye makes landfall or not in Fort Laduerdale, I would hope you having been taking the proper procedures to make you and your family safe. It will be  rough storm anywhere at the East coast of Fla.

[jburns]

39 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

PROBABLE WEATHER SEQUENCE NEAR LANDFALL POINT of CAT-4 HURRICANE E FLORIDA COAST

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

For the benefit of visitors to the forum and those with little background in forecasting ...

If a cat-4 landfall occurs, you could expect this sequence of weather tomorrow ...

... for about 4-6 hours before landfall, winds would slowly increase to hurricane force from the N-NE driving water onshore, some low-lying outer coastal locations would be flooded by 5-15 feet of water depending on local channelling. Cat-1 winds would persist until about an hour before landfall then cat-2 just before the eyewall arrived. Torrential rain and some thunderstorms would be ongoing and there would be a risk of tornado or waterspout activity (these would be moving more east to west than the wind direction might imply).

Cat-3 easterly winds would likely set in as the eyewall hit your location. Storm surges of 8 to 15 feet would be likely (higher if this coincides with high tide). Cat-3 winds would be 120 mph gusting to 150 (approximately). Moderate to severe damage is possible mainly to roofs, trees, unsecured objects. 

The most severe winds would occur about 10-20 miles north of the "landfall" spot because there, winds from the SE in the forward part of the eyewall would hit at cat-4 intensity. Those winds could partially destroy substantial structures and deroof many. Windows and doors could be blown in (or out once a wind tunnel began). 

Getting back to the exact landfall spot, eventually the strong east winds would ease and you would be in the eye for 1-2 hours, with lighter winds, some clearing until the back part of the eyewall arrived. 

In the second encounter with the eyewall, winds would begin to blow at cat-1 then cat-2 intensity from the southwest and would peak at cat-3 southwest to west winds (about 100-140 mph). Heavy rain would begin again. As the hurricane moved inland (even if just slightly) to your northwest, these hurricane force southwesterlies would gradually ease to cat-1 after 3 or 4 hours. The rain and strong wind might last another 3 to 6 hours then the skies would begin to clear and it would be safe to go outside except for any downed power lines or blowing light debris, or of course flooding.

The southwest to west winds would pile up water on the inland side of outer sandbar islands and could reverse the flow of floodwaters already flowing around, but the main effect would be to gradually push the high water back into the Atlantic. Some outer beaches might at this point see unusually low tides with the strong winds blowing off land. 

Obviously, one would not want to ride that out, but that's the sequence to expect near landfall. If you're let's say 50 miles south of the landfall point, your sequence would be strong to cat-1 hurricane north winds slowly turning more to northwest and west, with lashing rain and some cat-2 gusts. If you were 50 miles north of landfall, you could expect cat-2 northeast winds turning slowly to east then southeast with some cat-3 gusts (about 150 mph), high storm surges to 15 feet, and no interruption in the hurricane (too far from the eye for that) but winds slowly turning to south then southwest. All of this would last about 9-12 hours total. 

I will monitor the thread and answer questions. Good luck. 

 

 

Nice post.  One thing many people fail to consider when the say their building is sturdy enough to stand up the the winds is every other building in the area. In a normal area many, even most, are not.  When other structures fail the roof sections and timbers fly through the air and become battering rams smashing onto whatever the wind flings them against. A piece of plywood over your picture window might work for the wind but when a section of roof or wall from your neighbor's house slams into it, you are going to have a major problem. 

[zippity]

20 minutes ago, mfgmfg said:

 

Another discussion for the banter thread. I was wondering today about who the first person was to fly through an hurricane on purpose for weather-recon purposes. How did they figure out that a plane might be able to survive the conditions in an eyewall?

According to the link, the first plane to fly into the eye of a hurricane did so as part of a dare in WW ll:

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/history.htm

[zippity]

Roger Smith, thank you for the very helpful information!

[noforsnow]

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

 

 

1 hour ago, Roger Smith said:

PROBABLE WEATHER SEQUENCE NEAR LANDFALL POINT of CAT-4 HURRICANE E FLORIDA COAST

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

For the benefit of visitors to the forum and those with little background in forecasting ...

If a cat-4 landfall occurs, you could expect this sequence of weather tomorrow ...

... for about 4-6 hours before landfall, winds would slowly increase to hurricane force from the N-NE driving water onshore, some low-lying outer coastal locations would be flooded by 5-15 feet of water depending on local channelling. Cat-1 winds would persist until about an hour before landfall then cat-2 just before the eyewall arrived. Torrential rain and some thunderstorms would be ongoing and there would be a risk of tornado or waterspout activity (these would be moving more east to west than the wind direction might imply).

Cat-3 easterly winds would likely set in as the eyewall hit your location. Storm surges of 8 to 15 feet would be likely (higher if this coincides with high tide). Cat-3 winds would be 120 mph gusting to 150 (approximately). Moderate to severe damage is possible mainly to roofs, trees, unsecured objects. 

The most severe winds would occur about 10-20 miles north of the "landfall" spot because there, winds from the SE in the forward part of the eyewall would hit at cat-4 intensity. Those winds could partially destroy substantial structures and deroof many. Windows and doors could be blown in (or out once a wind tunnel began). 

Getting back to the exact landfall spot, eventually the strong east winds would ease and you would be in the eye for 1-2 hours, with lighter winds, some clearing until the back part of the eyewall arrived. 

In the second encounter with the eyewall, winds would begin to blow at cat-1 then cat-2 intensity from the southwest and would peak at cat-3 southwest to west winds (about 100-140 mph). Heavy rain would begin again. As the hurricane moved inland (even if just slightly) to your northwest, these hurricane force southwesterlies would gradually ease to cat-1 after 3 or 4 hours. The rain and strong wind might last another 3 to 6 hours then the skies would begin to clear and it would be safe to go outside except for any downed power lines or blowing light debris, or of course flooding.

The southwest to west winds would pile up water on the inland side of outer sandbar islands and could reverse the flow of floodwaters already flowing around, but the main effect would be to gradually push the high water back into the Atlantic. Some outer beaches might at this point see unusually low tides with the strong winds blowing off land. 

Obviously, one would not want to ride that out, but that's the sequence to expect near landfall. If you're let's say 50 miles south of the landfall point, your sequence would be strong to cat-1 hurricane north winds slowly turning more to northwest and west, with lashing rain and some cat-2 gusts. If you were 50 miles north of landfall, you could expect cat-2 northeast winds turning slowly to east then southeast with some cat-3 gusts (about 150 mph), high storm surges to 15 feet, and no interruption in the hurricane (too far from the eye for that) but winds slowly turning to south then southwest. All of this would last about 9-12 hours total. 

I will monitor the thread and answer questions. Good luck. 

Very well described. Hope to avoid the worst of this where I am but I fear for those farther north who are more likely to experience what you describe. So many new residents since Wilma, I feel like I've been a hurricane counselor the past few days.

[NavarreDon]

I am new to the forum. I live in NE Fort Lauderdale. What do the experts think here for us specifically? Do you all think we have a good shot of avoding landfall here? Thanks 

Where at? Pompano, Kendall Green, Lighthouse Point, Deerfield? As things stand this area could expect sustained tropical storm force winds with hurricane gust. Be prepared for loss of power, trees down & plenty of debris. Hopefully you have completed preparations.


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[WxReese]

37 minutes ago, jburns said:

Nice post.  One thing many people fail to consider when the say their building is sturdy enough to stand up the the winds is every other building in the area. In a normal area many, even most, are not.  When other structures fail the roof sections and timbers fly through the air and become battering rams smashing onto whatever the wind flings them against. A piece of plywood over your picture window might work for the wind but when a section of roof or wall from your neighbor's house slams into it, you are going to have a major problem. 

Or trees. This is going to be a huge issue once this gets north of the Space Coast (Cape Canaveral/Daytona Beach region) and near the First Coast (St. Augustine/Jacksonville). We saw what a Cat. 1 did to the trees in and around Tallahassee. I expect damage to be worse than that on the western side of Jacksonville as the trees immediately near the coast can (mostly) withstand 80-100 mph wind. Anything more and even they start to go, or their fronds start to go. The trees along I-95 and I-10 become more hardwood, which means they'll fall easier under that kind of wind.

St. Augustine is going to be interesting as well to see how the inlet does with this angle Matthew is expected to come in. That and what the St. Johns River will do. Or Lake Okeechobee (which I think will be stressed, but will remain far enough away from the hurricane force wind to keep anything bad from happening. I hope.) You get up to Savannah and Charleston and you run in to some of the same issues Jacksonville is going to have: storm surge and trees down everywhere.

[pcbjr]

9 minutes ago, WxReese said:

Or trees. This is going to be a huge issue once this gets north of the Space Coast (Cape Canaveral/Daytona Beach region) and near the First Coast (St. Augustine/Jacksonville). We saw what a Cat. 1 did to the trees in and around Tallahassee. I expect damage to be worse than that on the western side of Jacksonville as the trees immediately near the coast can (mostly) withstand 80-100 mph wind. Anything more and even they start to go, or their fronds start to go. The trees along I-95 and I-10 become more hardwood, which means they'll fall easier under that kind of wind.

St. Augustine is going to be interesting as well to see how the inlet does with this angle Matthew is expected to come in. That and what the St. Johns River will do. Or Lake Okeechobee (which I think will be stressed, but will remain far enough away from the hurricane force wind to keep anything bad from happening. I hope.) You get up to Savannah and Charleston and you run in to some of the same issues Jacksonville is going to have: storm surge and trees down everywhere.

Inland the same thing - Gainesville, Lake Butler, Palatka.