rcad1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Obviously anything can happen and i hope it does change back to the way it was at 6z yesterday. But I wouldn't listen to people saying the track is going to shift west again cause the models aren't handling the trough correctly. I would actually think it's the opposite and the models are finally starting to handle things better. Especially with all the info that's been going into the models the last couple of days. The entire east coast is doing balloon launches every 6 hours now to get better upper air info and I also heard the hurricane hunters flew another high altitude flight last night to sample the upper air around the storm so the 6z and 12z models would have even more data in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 12z HWRF keeps hope alive for some much needed rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 hours ago, bluewave said: This is what happens when the SST's and the WAR off the East Coast keeps setting new records. Kudos to the Euro showing run after run Matthew getting stuck under the ridge near the SE. Inside 5 days during the entire evolution it has been spot on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 13 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z HWRF keeps hope alive for some much needed rains. Too bad it's the HWRF. One of the most over-done hurricane models out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Brian5671 said: Too bad it's the HWRF. One of the most over-done hurricane models out there It's much more useful when you already have an organized TC. Don't kid yourself, this isn't the same thing as the HWRF blowing up a tropical wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, PB GFI said: Inside 5 days during the entire evolution it has been spot on . Yeah, the Euro is set to complete the triple crown of October hurricane forecasting with Sandy, Joaquin, and now Matthew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the Euro is set to complete the triple crown of October hurricane forecasting with Sandy, Joaquin, and now Matthew. Euro FTW again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 Keeping hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 At this point I just want rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I hope we get NO rain from this BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, marsplex said: I hope we get NO rain from this BS Why? We're in a drought you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve5728 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 1 minHá 1 minuto Heaviest rainfall will likely be over Atlantic as Hurricane Matthew churns parallel to coast. But still 6-10" possible along entire coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the Euro is set to complete the triple crown of October hurricane forecasting with Sandy, Joaquin, and now Matthew. How did you Euro win here? Bc it never showed a hit or brush for our area? It was all over the place. The only thing the Euro won was being correct in the PAC. The Euro was really good, consistently showing a weak trough crossing the US or a zonal flow and the other models were awful. With that said, it was pretty bad on the Atlantic side. It played catch up to the GFS and especially the Ukie with the strength and location of the WAR and the track of Matthew once out of the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, marsplex said: I hope we get NO rain from this BS Why? We're in a drought you know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: How did you Euro win here? Bc it never showed a hit or brush for our area? It was all over the place. The only thing the Euro won was being correct in the PAC. The Euro was really good, consistently showing a weak trough or a zonal flow and the other models were awful. With that said, it was pretty bad on the Atlantic side. It played catch up to the GFS and especially the Ukie with the strength and location of the WAR and the track of Matthew once out of the Caribbean. I score the win for it consistently having the further SE track relative to our area with the weaker trough and stronger WAR. While it alternated between how far NE it got, it was always SE of the GFS track which had those few eye candy LI and SE New England landfall runs. You could even see while the track last week wasn't exactly correct, it kept showing the storm getting stuck under the ridge near the SE Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Most meteorologis i know are now sounding the all clear for the NE!! Unfortunately I think we have no hope left at this point!!! Like Upton said the only way that they could see something changing is if the system coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest isn't being sampled correctly. But I'm thinking that chance is almost 0 at this point! You have almost every model agreeing that it will come no where near the NE. I really hope I'm wrong and something big changes but I'm definitely not expecting it!!! We are just in a very boring pattern that hopefully changes soon. Hopefully we get a Nor'easter or something tropical soon!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: I score the win for it consistently having the further SE track relative to our area with the weaker trough and stronger WAR. While it alternated between how far NE it got, it was always SE of the GFS track which had those few eye candy LI and SE New England landfall runs. You could even see while the track last week wasn't exactly correct, it kept showing the storm getting stuck under the ridge near the SE Coast. It was all over the place. Did just as bad as the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The eps has a bunch of members north of hse and brings decent rain up to Phl now. Not saying we get a huge storm but I guess a decent rain is still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 44 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The eps has a bunch of members north of hse and brings decent rain up to Phl now. Not saying we get a huge storm but I guess a decent rain is still on the table That will most likely find a way to go wrong. I'm with everyone else now. Never discount the euro for over all evolution. While it goofed slightly with the January 15 blizzard it's was a matter of 50 miles not 500 as we have seen with the GFS with Matthew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, seanick said: It was all over the place. Did just as bad as the rest. All over the place on how far OTS. But it never showed a big hit on our area like the GFS was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hopefully Nassua is not that badly beat up, one of my favorite spots to vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 19 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully Nassua is not that badly beat up, one of my favorite spots to vacation You selfish mfer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 hours ago, seanick said: It was all over the place. Did just as bad as the rest. The Euro is currently in the lead. The ECMWF is running up the score here. The op Euro is beating the GFS and the NHC beyond 24 hours with track accuracy. pic.twitter.com/W4mfhILPrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Euro is currently in the lead. The ECMWF is running up the score here. The op Euro is beating the GFS and the NHC beyond 24 hours with track accuracy. pic.twitter.com/W4mfhILPrr It's a fool's errand to rule the Euro out with tropical events even when it's on its own. It's insisting on a loop-like track and missing the flat and weak trough was a red flag to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: It's a fool's errand to rule the Euro out with tropical events even when it's on its own. It's insisting on a loop-like track and missing the flat and weak trough was a red flag to me. It'a wasn't showing the loop until yesterday. No model was. It was 1500 miles off on day 5 (or 6) from the previous run when it first showed the loop. Like I said, it basically nailed the pattern over the US but was late to the party on the strong WAR and westward track of Matthew. People keep only looking at the impacts to our sensible weather on these model runs and aren't looking at the bigger picture. Every single model handle this poorly. I'd give the best grade to the Ukie as it was consistently showing a Florida hit even though it did have the trough taking the remnants up here in its fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 6, 2016 Author Share Posted October 6, 2016 We're not out of woods yet, but with each passing model cycle it's becoming less and less likely we'll see a major shift in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We're not out of woods yet, but with each passing model cycle it's becoming less and less likely we'll see a major shift in either direction. Who knows... we have seen many surprises coming from hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHarr Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We're not out of woods yet, but with each passing model cycle it's becoming less and less likely we'll see a major shift in either direction. At this point, what could possibly happen for the hurricane to head north instead of a hook right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 This threat is over for us. No need to hype at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 6, 2016 Share Posted October 6, 2016 I wouldn't call it a zero chance, but very slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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