e46and2 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 the latest gfs verbatim has matthew stronger on the second approach to far southern florida after completing the loop, lol...could end up in the gulf if it continues west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 re-approaching SE florida on day 7-8 (oct 13) as a category 3...can't make it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Unbelievable the changes in the models from even the 6z run today! Obviously thing's could change. But I think the chance of this storm affecting us is just about 0 now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, rcad1 said: Unbelievable the changes in the models from even the 6z run today! Obviously thing's could change. But I think the chance of this storm affecting us is just about 0 now!! I wouldn't say zero, but the chances have very much decreased, certainly still need to keep on eye on it for future track changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 10 minutes ago, e46and2 said: re-approaching SE florida on day 7-8 (oct 13) as a category 3...can't make it up Umm hits Florida as a strong cat 4/ weak 5 way out in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Umm hits Florida as a strong cat 4/ weak 5 way out in fantasy land And almost hits us at 264 hours lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Cheers to the best model run of all time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Euro?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 This is what happens when the SST's and the WAR off the East Coast keeps setting new records. Kudos to the Euro showing run after run Matthew getting stuck under the ridge near the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: This is what happens when the SST's and the WAR off the East Coast keeps setting new records. Kudos to the Euro showing run after run Matthew getting stuck under the ridge near the SE. Not to go to far off topic in this thread, but couldn't the WAR also hurt us this winter by pushing storms further to our west causing more rain or mixed precipitation events?? The WAR really needs to start loosening its grip a bit, we could have really used the heavy rain from Matthew to break the drought but the chances of that happening now are pretty slim unless there is a drastic change to the forecast over the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Not to go to far off topic in this thread, but couldn't the WAR also hurt us this winter by pushing storms further to our west causing more rain or mixed precipitation events?? The WAR really needs to start loosening its grip a bit, we could have really used the heavy rain from Matthew to break the drought but the chances of that happening now are pretty slim unless there is a drastic change to the forecast over the next 24-36 hours. Like we saw last winter, the only thing that was able to push back against the WAR with the winter wavelengths was the extreme Arctic blocking in JF. The WAR ran the table through December with the historic warmth when it teamed up with the Super Nino in the Pacific. The record Kara block building back across the pole as we went into January saved the winter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 Cuba gave Matthew all he could handle, but luckily that's well past him and we have some resemblance of an eye starting to reappear on IR. At least with the anti-cyclonic loop, we actually have another shot of Matthew being picked up and carried North. Otherwise it looks like game over for anyone North of OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Why aren't models corrected to get a handle on the WAR? To bust and bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 I'd be really careful, these things have a knack of turning on a dime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I'd be really careful, these things have a knack of turning on a dime. Ehh looks like good consensus on a way miss to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, Snow88 said: Ehh looks like good consensus on a way miss to the south But the system is so massive and the trough orientation can still certainly change. I don't think we're going to get the core up this way like we did with Irene or Floyd, but we can't rule out enhanced heavy rains from the interactions with the approaching front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 5, 2016 Author Share Posted October 5, 2016 Even with the 06z HWRF not making it any further North than Wilmington, NC, NYC and points East would still see a significant rainfall on Saturday night into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: But the system is so massive and the trough orientation can still certainly change. I don't think we're going to get the core up this way like we did with Irene or Floyd, but we can't rule out enhanced heavy rains from the interactions with the approaching front. That's if the storm gains more lattitude. Euro won this battle even though it changed a lot. It never showed northeast threat while the other models were hammering the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 euro almost wants to phase matthew up towards our latitude after it does the loop and heads northeast at 240 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Any word on the next GFS --- several people in other threads (and other forums), still think the approaching trough is not being handled correctly, which in turn is showing the escape and subsequent loop. Curious to see as we get closer to the trough interaction if things suddenly flip back once (if) they get a better handle on it. Also as an aside, assuming that the escape and loop scenario pans out as depicted, this system will have been an organized storm for nearly a month....does anyone know the longest "lived" continuous cyclone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 13 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said: Any word on the next GFS --- several people in other threads (and other forums), still think the approaching trough is not being handled correctly, which in turn is showing the escape and subsequent loop. Curious to see as we get closer to the trough interaction if things suddenly flip back once (if) they get a better handle on it. Also as an aside, assuming that the escape and loop scenario pans out as depicted, this system will have been an organized storm for nearly a month....does anyone know the longest "lived" continuous cyclone? The problem I think is that the models from the past couple of days have incorrectly handled the trough amplification over the Midwest and the strength of the WAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 The trough is almost non exsistant on the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 What's 500 miles between friends?? Amazing 2016 and all those PhDs, aircraft and computer models and they blew it. Big time. I took the bait. I'll admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Just now, BlizzardNYC said: The trough is almost non exsistant on the 12z Non-Existent as in nothing to boot it OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, weatherdude888 said: Non-Existent as in nothing to boot it OTS? Yep. It sits and spins over costal South Carolina. Dumps a huge amount of rain there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Coastal Carolina gets over a foot of rain! We stay dry and have a beautiful weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep. It sits and spins over costal South Carolina. Dumps a huge amount of rain there Which seems like a different solution to the OTS and loop scenario. Is there a map yet for the GFS, what happens post timeframe from the trough (or lack thereof) --- sits and spins for the remainder of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 minute ago, weatherdude888 said: Which seems like a different solution to the OTS and loop scenario. Is there a map yet for the GFS, what happens post timeframe from the trough (or lack thereof) --- sits and spins for the remainder of the run? It's still the loop scenario. The trough is to weak to push it out so it just drifts along the coast because of the war. It eventually starts drifting east to southeast back into the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It's still the loop scenario. The trough is to weak to push it out so it just drifts along the coast because of the war. It eventually starts drifting east to southeast back into the ocean And with nothing to force it up, it kind of meanders around dumping buckets over SC......That would be an epic deluge.... Thanks for the information! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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