Stormlover74 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We just can't get a costal storm to give a us a benchmark track if our lives depended on it. The war is not even enough to help us out Yep it's tough to bet against whichever situation screws us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yep it's tough to bet against whichever situation screws us You remind me of me back in PA for the last six winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Yep it's tough to get against whichever situation screws us Even when we have the euro on our side inside 3 days it ends up being wrong haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 this ridge needs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Tough to go against that WAR pattern. Just count on it verifying stronger than the long range forecasts indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 I think we're too early in the season. Troughs are simply not as strong as they will be in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs_latest.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_gefs_latest.png The loop is real. Holy ****. Lol. There's a chance we get a reverse Ivan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 hours ago, Bacon Strips said: It can be draining. It's terrible. I mean every model had Hermine and Matthew hitting the area . Hermine was a big miss and now it looks like Matthew is also. Smfh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: We just can't get a costal storm to give a us a benchmark track if our lives depended on it. The war is not even enough to help us out The pacific is screwing up the pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 14 minutes ago, WaPo said: The loop is real. Holy ****. Lol. There's a chance we get a reverse Ivan. It might not even make landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 hours ago, NortheastPAWx said: So we've gone from widespread 5-6"+ at 0z last night to <0.5" now (E LI still gets 1-1.5"). There won't be much of anything north of Norfolk if the Euro's right and there's no interaction with the trough. Hopefully for the drought something can be salvaged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's terrible. I mean every model had Hermine and Matthew hitting the area . Hermine was a big miss and now it looks like Matthew is also. Smfh. It doesn't surprise me that medium/long range models turn out to be wrong 4-5 days in advance with a Hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's terrible. I mean every model had Hermine and Matthew hitting the area . Hermine was a big miss and now it looks like Matthew is also. Smfh. Wrong, Euro never hit us. In fact it's 8 day forecast issued 200 hrs ago was dead on with location and speed of Matthew. An unbelievable accomplishment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 59 minutes ago, WaPo said: The loop is real. Holy ****. Lol. There's a chance we get a reverse Ivan. It's one of three possible outcomes i see right now. 1. NHC current track verifys and its just inside the bench mark with plenty of rain and a little wind here. (Coastal impacts could still be severe) 2. Exit stage right under hatters (self explanatory) 3. Major stall and trap. And or cyclonic loop back towards the coast south of myrtle beach All there are very much in play right now. Anyone who says other wise needs a time out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Wrong, Euro never hit us. In fact it's 8 day forecast issued 200 hrs ago was dead on with location and speed of Matthew. An unbelievable accomplishment. The Euro was waffled all over the place with the track/timing of Matthew and the strength of the war. The only thing it's been consistent on is a weak trough or zonal flow and Matthew not making it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 I think we know which way the models are going to go tonight, and it's not north or west IMHO but we shall see. If they do I will be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Yeah I have to agree with you Rtd208 I'm really hoping for the opposite but it's hard to to bet against what the trend has been today. Also people that are saying the NHC didn't move the cone and there smarter than us actually they don't really need to move the cone cause it's called the cone of uncertainty for a reason and the hurricane could be anywhere within that cone and as of now models have it on the eastern side of the cone. That's why they haven't moved it yet but I can guarantee if the 0z and tomorrow's 6z runs continue the South and East trend you will see the cone shifted South and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct-NnE8W8AA-0o0.jpg:large Cone of uncertainty moving away from the area. I'd assume, if 0z runs hold serve, it will be even more east and south of the area. Lets hope so!! (for those who don't want the storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Even the NAM is east now. Boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 15 minutes ago, mike1984 said: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ct-NnE8W8AA-0o0.jpg:large Cone of uncertainty moving away from the area. I'd assume, if 0z runs hold serve, it will be even more east and south of the area. Lets hope so!! (for those who don't want the storm) A track 100 miles or so offshore would have given much needed rain and some wind but nothing too damaging given it would be quick moving. Instead it's looking likelier it will be squashed south and east by the too flat and progressive pattern. That means maybe some rain with the weak front and that's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Wrong, Euro never hit us. In fact it's 8 day forecast issued 200 hrs ago was dead on with location and speed of Matthew. An unbelievable accomplishment. It changed a million times. Stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 27 minutes ago, snow1 said: Even the NAM is east now. Boring The NAM barely moved east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 0z GFS is stronger with the Low associated with the trough at 82 hours, compared to 18z. 996 mb this is a small trend towards the NAM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Exit stage right, according to the GFS.Edit: And then start what appears to be a loop.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Gfs similar with euro loop now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Bone dry in this area...though Florida might get hit twice in this run. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Hard to believe that Matthew may loop around and hit the some of the same areas twice, wow just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 CMC is off Hatteras and then ENE from there. Clips us with some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 5, 2016 Share Posted October 5, 2016 Tricky forecast ahead..with so many scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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