NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 Already thinking about major problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 27 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: New They may have to dial back the northern part of those totals like they did with Joaquin. Even the 12z GFS wasn't that wet here. Not to mention if the further south Euro and UKMET verify. Joaquin Forecast Verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: They may have to dial back the northern part of those totals like they did with Joaquin. Even the 12z GFS wasn't that wet here. Not to mention if the further south Euro and UKMET verify. Joaquin Forecast You're assuming that all of a sudden the models now have the correct idea. I think that's way too premature. I think it's almost 50/50 at this point that Matthew misses the trough completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You're assuming that all of a sudden the models now have the correct idea. I think that's way too premature. I think it's almost 50/50 at this point that Matthew misses the trough completely. You can't deny the 12z models shifting SE. Whether along the lines of the GFS or UK and Euro there would be less rain further north than those forecast based on older information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, bluewave said: You can't deny the 12z models shifting SE. Whether along the lines of the GFS or UK and Euro there would be less rain further north than those forecast based on older information. And what happens when they shift back West tonight? The models have been completely inconsistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I'll agree They have been inconsistent but you can't ignore every model at 12z shifting east it wasn't just one model it was every one of them. And look at the hurricane model plots from 18z someone posted above there all further east then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 Believe it or not, even with the Euro exiting off the NC coast, we still get 0.25"+ rainfall from the PRE. If we can get the right interaction between the trough and Matthew, we can still get very significant impacts here even if Matthew passes well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Are models ever REALLY consistent? I mean, yes ... sometimes there are trends and a convergence. But often, their solutions change back and forth and there isn't necessarily consistency between them. Also, Hurricanes are a different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, rcad1 said: I'll agree They have been inconsistent but you can't ignore every model at 12z shifting east it wasn't just one model it was every one of them. And look at the hurricane model plots from 18z someone posted above there all further east then 12z Most of those 18z hurricane models would still deliver significant rain to our area. Matthew is a large storm and the moisture feed on the NW side is well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 I mean, I hate to post the NAM, but this is a perfect example. It's raining all the way up into Canada with Matthew off the Carolina coast. This is one heck of a moisture feed Even the GFS shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Those idoiots at the nhc center still have this passing inside the benchmark as a cane as of 5pm what are they thinking!! One suite of model runs has this exit stage right I mean come on guys. (Joke) do not write this off as the NHC hasn't for impacts in the north east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 NAM critics turn away... Latest NAM keeps the 'capture' solution alive. Speeds up the trough getting here quicker, while GFS is slower with it's arrival. Both generally keep the strength of the trough similar....just the NAM gets it here quicker. Which would mean a lot more rain for the north-east / mid-atlantic. 18z NAM vs 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Don't we have a strict policy against trolling across sub-forums? Not trolling, the ridge that is slowing this system down and pushing it west will also keep it down south in the Carolinas where it will die. If it doesn't do that it will keep it south long enough that when the trough picks it up, it will be picked up near the Outer Banks of NC and take it due east. The trend is for a stronger ridge to the northeast and slower which means it isn't coming up the coast to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 actually I need to correct myself. The trough is much stronger with the NAM. 1012 Low up in canada (GFS) ...compared to 1000 mb Low (NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I lost so much sleep tracking this storm and Hermine and what happened? Nothing. This storm looked good on every model except the Euro and now the models went to the euro . Unbelievable. NHC jinxed it after putting the northeast in the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Anything is still possible but with the models trending weaker with the trough this thing might just end up cutoff in the southeast and spin for days. I might have got more rain last night then from what we get this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: I lost so much sleep tracking this storm and Hermine and what happened? Nothing. This storm looked good on every model except the Euro and now the models went to the euro . Unbelievable. NHC jinxed it after putting the northeast in the cone. Nooooooooo not you too!! Dude we are still in the cone!! Wtf is going on here!! What happened to "its trending north" like we have with snow storms. I'm gonna laugh when this goes right over the bench mark. Making predictions this far out despite the models is ridiculous and the exact reason why the NHC hasn't bought it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 18z gfs is going to miss the trough and this is going to cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: 18z gfs is going to miss the trough and this is going to cutoff Pretty evident the models are trending to a miss for the north. With the ridge being pumped up by 2 tropical systems it is not surprising that neither have an outlet to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 All the models have consistently trended toward a zonal pattern. A few days ago the GFS showed a much sharper trough that would have brought record cold to the Northeast and snow for Northern New England on the back end of Matthew. Even the Euro solutions a few days ago would have brought pretty cold weather behind the storm. Now it looks like just a regular October cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sportybx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 This isn't over till early Friday morning . NHC the weather channel all have it coming up the coast . Something off the coast of Florida is throwing the models off they just said on TWC . BTW 1.1 mill people evacuated out of SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 9 minutes ago, Stebo said: Pretty evident the models are trending to a miss for the north. With the ridge being pumped up by 2 tropical systems it is not surprising that neither have an outlet to the northeast. Trough out west is noticeably flatter. Skirts Fl and southeast coast then it's going to out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 23 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Nooooooooo not you too!! Dude we are still in the cone!! Wtf is going on here!! What happened to "its trending north" like we have with snow storms. I'm gonna laugh when this goes right over the bench mark. Making predictions this far out despite the models is ridiculous and the exact reason why the NHC hasn't bought it yet The nhc is often late to the party, not wanting to adjust the path too often. There's time yes but the consensus today is for a flatter trough. Can't exactly being it up the coast of that trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 yea, but it's nowhere near 'over' GFS was originally deeper with the trough, like the NAM currently is. Nothing's saying the GFS goes back to the deeper solution in the days ahead. plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Trough out west is noticeably flatter. Skirts Fl and southeast coast then it's going to out to sea With the exception of the January blizzard and early February snowstorm, suppressed storm tracks to our SE have been the rule here last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Shoots east after getting up to the outer banks. The area gets .10 from the front. Stebo is correct the door is closing on a hit north of North Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 6 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: yea, but it's nowhere near 'over' GFS was originally deeper with the trough, like the NAM currently is. Nothing's saying the GFS goes back to the deeper solution in the days ahead. plenty of time. Thank you!!! Someone with sanity. This is the last time I will say this till it invedibly happens during winter. Stop living and dying run to run, stop making calls or certainty 5-6 days out and most importantly STOP THINKING YOUR SMARTER THEN THE NHC. I promise you, your not. If this thing was for sure going out to sea they would have adjusted the cone. And finally there is even a chance of a cyclonic loop now. All options are on the table with any tropical system till 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: With the exception of the January blizzard and early February snowstorm, suppressed storm tracks to our SE have been the rule here last few years. We just can't get a costal storm to give a us a benchmark track if our lives depended on it. The war is not even enough to help us out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 So we've gone from widespread 5-6"+ at 0z last night to <0.5" now (E LI still gets 1-1.5"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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