snow1 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Gefs match the op. Wide right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 I think it's pretty foolish and premature to be making any definitive statements at this range. We haven't seen the 12z Euro yet, and secondly, we still have another 4-5 days to go. That's 20 more GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 Someone broke the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The Euro will be delayed by an hour . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Someone broke the Euro. Someone is hacking into the EURO to make sure it doesn't show an OTS solution...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, mikemost said: 1 minute ago, allgame830 said: Someone is hacking into the EURO to make sure it doesn't show an OTS solution...... Yanksfan trying to get it to show 12"+ of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, snow1 said: Euro OTS? Its delayed 60 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Hurricane models way offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 It is still early to say exactly what our local impacts will be. Obviously the speed of Matthew will be critical in determining exactly what kind of impacts we are going to see, so to make a call either way at this point is still premature. We all know how fickle these situations can be so I wouldn't be making an definitive statements just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 This is a good post by a met in the New England forum. Click header to read full post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 Euro with a devastating landfall near Vero Beach, FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I don't think you guys are going to like the results of the Euro if you want impacts up here from what I am hearing, but lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 For those that laughed at the 12z hurricane models which made the loop, that's more or less exactly what this run of the Euro is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I don't think you guys are going to like the results of the Euro if you want impacts up here from what I am hearing, but lets see. The trough looks flat and quite progressive again, so Matthew is kicked ENE and therefore little impact north of VA Beach or so. Matthew also slows down, which allows the trough to catch up to Matthew and shunt it away. It doesn't really matter how far NW Matthew gets towards FL or even SC/GA, if the westerlies up north are too progressive and the ridge not strong enough, it gets booted east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: For those that laughed at the 12z hurricane models which made the loop, that's more or less exactly what this run of the Euro is doing. So where did this loop come from all of a sudden? This thing is having more twist and turns then a mountain road in Columbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stockmanjr Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 To be honest after looking what it would due to FL's east coast I really don't care about the rain that we would get. The EURO has catastrophe written all over it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: So where did this loop come from all of a sudden? This thing is having more twist and turns then a mountain road in Columbia. Because the Euro has Matthew missing the trough all together now, so it gets tugged slightly NE and then drifts SE. A little slower and Matthew probably gets stalled out completely somewhere near the FL/GA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 I see it now, yup, the Euro takes what's left of Matthew and sends it back towards Central FL and then into the Gulf. LMAO, you really can't make this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, stockmanjr said: To be honest after looking what it would due to FL's east coast I really don't care about the rain that we would get. The EURO has catastrophe written all over it.. I agree, that would be quite damaging from Palm Beach County on north. Unfortunately models are all converging on a track pretty close to the FL coast, and a good environment to stay powerful. Hopefully it stays 50 miles or so offshore so the real damaging effects are kept to just the beaches. It won't be that large like storms up north are, so that might mean just tropical storm conditions for the cities and offshore wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Thought this thread was for local impacts? We dont need two tropical threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Just now, NJwx85 said: Because the Euro has Matthew missing the trough all together now, so it gets tugged slightly NE and then drifts SE. A little slower and Matthew probably gets stalled out completely somewhere near the FL/GA border. The million dollar question, is it right, at this point is any model solution right. We are just going to have to wait yet since I think there will be more changes IMO. One thing that seems pretty certain is that the southeast coast is going to take a beating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Thought this thread was for local impacts? We dont need two tropical threads. It was supposed to be, but posters earlier decided to completely trash it with "bust" and other calls. Not enough self moderation here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 7 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Thought this thread was for local impacts? We dont need two tropical threads. Probably best to lock the other one since everyone is using this one and update the thread title. We were getting to the lockout point on the other thread anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Man, the EURO must have gotten into some good stuff somewhere. That run was a big bag of WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 The Euro was somewhat like the Ukie and both were 1500 miles south of their 0z runs by day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro was somewhat like the Ukie and both were 1500 miles south of their 0z runs by day 6. Yea and if that isn't a HUGE red flag... i dont know what is... something doesn't seem right beyond the short range on both the UKMET and EURO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Author Share Posted October 4, 2016 New Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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