NJwx85 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Since we're inside of six days now on most of the modeling, and the overwhelming model consensus is for at least some impact up near our latitude, I think starting a specific thread is warranted at this time. First up is the GFS in about 90 minutes and then the GGEM, UKMET, HWRF, GFDL and finally the Euro with ensembles in between. May the winds be damaging and the rains flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 we can use the rain in the water sheds......I found eleven storms that produced at least 4" of rain in NYC...1877 was one of them... rainfall in NYC from a tropical storm/hurricane... date.................amount........ Sept 1882.......10.63" Sept 1944.........7.76" great Atlantic hurricane Aug 2011..........6.87" Irene Aug 1955..........6.32" Connie Aug 1971..........5.96" Doria Sept 1938.........5.74" Sept 1934.........5.48" Sept 1999.........5.44" Floyd Aug 1879..........4.59" Aug 1976..........4.28" Belle Oct 1877...........4.07" Aug 1893..........3.94" Sept 1904.........3.85" Aug 1991..........3.72" Bob Sept 1985.........3.58" Gloria July 1960...........3.56" Sept 1954.........3.30" Carol Sept 1960.........2.42" Donna the 1877 storm was damaging in Brooklyn... http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1877-10-05/ed-1/seq-5/ http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50378844 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 ^ Still nearly category 2 strength as it goes inside 40/70 (Probably about 40/72). OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 39.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 strong hurricane about to make landfall in south carolina 12z saturday on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 3:57 PM, Allsnow said: strong hurricane about to make landfall in south carolina 12z saturday on the gfs Expand I don't like the look of that trof coming in from the Midwest. It looks a bit flatter. That may help it to kick east after this timeframe , but we'll see, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 3:58 PM, Neblizzard said: I don't like the look of that trof coming in from the Midwest. It looks a bit flatter. That may help it to kick east after this timeframe , but we'll see, Expand Its does look flatter i bet we see a kick east here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 EURO FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:03 PM, NortheastPAWx said: EURO FTW? Expand we get some rain with the front but Matthew is going way east on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:03 PM, NortheastPAWx said: EURO FTW? Expand Way too early to be calling victory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 1-2 inches of rain of the 12z gfs from nyc-west, long island and sw ct get 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 12z GFS is way east of 6z! So strange the 6z tropical model's were all basically clustered inside the benchmark thought for sure the 12z GFS was going to come further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ggem out to sea! Following the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 I think that LP up north helps to flatten out the trough, and keeps Matthew from gaining much altitude before making a right turn. Which is undeniably a move toward the Euro and we have seen this movie before. Edit: Looked at the euro from 0z. - and I only have the free version - there is no LP in quebec, so there are differences between the 2, but the outcome is similiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:13 PM, pstar3182 said: Why would you not like an easterly push? Expand For you to get the kind of rain really needed to dent the drought, you want a deeper trough that can draw in moisture from Matthew and eventually phase into it like last night's GFS. If the trough is flat, the storm will be kicked east and at best it's a moderate rain event as the front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ggem is further east also. Speed is slower and trough is a bit flatter. We get some rain but nothing crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Need Matthew to speed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:27 PM, cleetussnow said: I think that LP up north helps to flatten out the trough, and keeps Matthew from gaining much altitude before making a right turn. Which is undeniably a move toward the Euro and we have seen this movie before. Expand and yet people last night said that the Euro was moving towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:23 PM, winterwarlock said: Stop rooting for a damaging storm to hit Expand The storm wouldn't be that damaging unless it somehow hit land as a hurricane up north. The best shot for that was maybe on Cape Cod, which people shouldn't want. However, the rain is much needed, and the amount shown last night would have caused some flooding but nothing major given the deficits. It also would've been fast moving. Still 5 days out, but the flatter progressive trough isn't good if you want much impact north of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:38 PM, Snow88 said: and yet people last night said that the Euro was moving towards the GFS Expand Oh yeah and I just looked over the Euro and while the outcome is similar, the reasons are different. So...you can look at it 2 ways - the models are not locked in on a solution and everything is still possible -or- There is more than 1 way the storm can kick OTS for the NE it's hard to get a tropical system up here for a lot of reasons. I am going with the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Ukmet also went east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Either the Ukie kills this thing inland over the SE or it just shifted like 1500 miles S in the day 5-6 timeframe in the span of one suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:46 PM, Neblizzard said: Ukmet also went east Expand Idk about east. It's just looks completely different after day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Last night's ukie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Going off those maps it looks like the trough kicks it east after making landfall in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 Euro schooled all at h5 over the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 you guys have to stop falling in love with day 7 model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:53 PM, forkyfork said: you guys have to stop falling in love with day 7 model runs Expand But they're so attractive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 4:57 PM, IrishRob17 said: But they're so attractive! Expand To be fair I only saw a few people doing that and the weather has been so boring. Forky's overall is message is right though. The skill on 7 day OP runs isn't very high. Hopefully it's a lesson for some headed into winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 4, 2016 Share Posted October 4, 2016 On 10/4/2016 at 5:00 PM, Rjay said: To be fair I only saw a few people doing that and the weather has been so boring. Expand That's a fair statement and correct, so so boring around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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