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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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1 hour ago, Bostonseminole said:

Going to be real interesting to see how the eye survives landfall in Haiti and then likely Cuba.  Worst case scenario that it skirts both islands and doesn't suffer all that much right?

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's what the euro did. The GFS was more like a frontal wave with a hurricane on it, as weird as it sounds. It didn't have that expanding wind field, other than a large area of 30-40kt winds.

Looking at Dr. Hart's cyclone evolution phase diagram, the GFS takes its sweet time transitioning this one.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At least you're finally admitting it's coming 

It depends on the evolution. The GFS is not a transitionaing, expending windfield scenario at our latitude. If you want damage, go well east with the GFS. It gets windy, but I wouldn't say damaging. I guess maybe some 40+kt gusts perhaps. But you are thinking 50kt+. 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

At least you're finally admitting it's coming 

 

No, it could easily still whiff wide right.

 

I don't feel the need to try and "call" if a TC is hitting us at 130 hours out. I've offered my 2 cents already at these ridiculous timeframes...until there is a very good reason to predict otherwise, you hedge east.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It may try to do a PRE thing. That's much guess. I don't see winds as an issue in most areas. For now anyways.

 

Very good chance we'd get PRE rains even if it whiffs well east...just with the trough going through, it's going to want to set up a convergence area that extends north from the TC.

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18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Certainly won't be a hurricane by the time it gets abeam of  Ur latitude.   

 

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Very good chance we'd get PRE rains even if it whiffs well east...just with the trough going through, it's going to want to set up a convergence area that extends north from the TC.

 Yeah the setup is there even if the low is well SE. Good approaching trough with excellent right entrance region of jet acting on PWAT plume.  

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Man look at that ageostrophic flow at 250mb. In theory, the flow should be parallel to those height lines. Note the wind barbs. They run across height lines. The vector difference is the venting, or mass movement of air away from a specific area. That is great to help air to rise. 

 

 

H250.JPG

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man look at that ageostrophic flow at 250mb. In theory, the flow should be parallel to those height lines. Note the wind barbs. They run across height lines. The vector difference is the venting, or mass movement of air away from a specific area. That is great to help air to rise. 

 

 

H250.JPG

For scale so people can see what you're talking about. We can plot the ageostrophic vectors at the Plym vortex site.

h25ageo.gif

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