Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I think there is also an inherent hazard when dealing with a named storm that people focus in so much on the center of the system. Sometimes at the cost of ignoring or missing other signals.

I was fairly lucky that direct impacts from Matthew were pretty much nil for my forecast area and I was able to focus on things like this: 

departing jet streak will reside over the Canadian Maritimes with
the right entrance region enhancing lift over or very close to New
England. I say over or very close because the 05.12z GFS and ECMWF
differ in placement of the features. The ECMWF is farther N with
the jet streak and eventually with Matthew...which allows more
moisture to make it closer to the forecast area. Entraining any
moisture from Matthew coupled with the jet streak circulation
could wring out a band of rnfl...even more so than model guidance
currently shows.

There was always a chance we were going to draw more moisture north than was forecast. And I would argue that for a while now the Carolinas have been in the cross hairs for significant heavy rain impacts, let alone possible landfall. I just find it hard to declare the GFS a winner in any significant way about this system.

The models were bringing Matthew off the south below Hatteras and looping it around. As the models trended more north with Matthew near Hatteras, the precip shield also expanded further north into our area.

[OceanStWx]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The models were bringing Matthew off the south below Hatteras and looping it around. As the models trended more north with Matthew near Hatteras, the precip shield also expanded further north into our area.

The models did trend north and give more direct impacts to say, NC, but I would say the rain going on in the Northeast has very little to do with that trend north. For all intents and purposes, Matthew is an occluded system with the center still E of HAT. The rain we're seeing now is from entrained moisture into the approaching trof. We have raobs observing a 170 kt jet streak, when models were forecasting around 110 mid to late last week. That's a big change in forcing over the Northeast, and in large part what is responsible for a nice band of rain moving into the area.

Nicole did throw a wrench too. There was probably too much modeled Fujiwhara vs reality. 

[CoastalWx]

Well I do pretty much  pay little to no attention beyond 5 days for tropical systems since models have a difficult time tracking intensity. Get me inside 4 days when decisions need to be made. 

[jbenedet]

34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

The models did trend north and give more direct impacts to say, NC, but I would say the rain going on in the Northeast has very little to do with that trend north. For all intents and purposes, Matthew is an occluded system with the center still E of HAT. The rain we're seeing now is from entrained moisture into the approaching trof. We have raobs observing a 170 kt jet streak, when models were forecasting around 110 mid to late last week. That's a big change in forcing over the Northeast, and in large part what is responsible for a nice band of rain moving into the area.

Nicole did throw a wrench too. There was probably too much modeled Fujiwhara vs reality. 

Look, I'm not saying there is a clear winner here--more than anything I'm trying to knock the euro down to the rest of the bunch. 

There were significant direct impacts to Delaware, most of SC and NC, and the eastern half of Virginia and Maryland.

[ROOSTA]

Power just restored. Got very lucky personally and to some degree area-wide.
Gusted to 85mph here at the height.
I was prepared, only lacking in needing more water. Trees bent and snapped all around. Closest flooding in Astor (St. Johns River)

[Ginx snewx]

39 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Power just restored. Got very lucky personally and to some degree area-wide.
Gusted to 85mph here at the height.
I was prepared, only lacking in needing more water. Trees bent and snapped all around. Closest flooding in Astor (St. Johns River)

Awesome but nothing without pics

[ROOSTA]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Awesome but nothing without pics

LOL Well then I guess it didn't happen. j/k

I could post one of those cheesy lawn chairs tipped-over.

One amazing observation is the Milky-Way 2-3am and one could read a book by moon-light.